Chromex Share Discussion Threads

[sailing john] 23/9/2010 11:02

Sorry to keep posting but noticed a couple of buys at 35p. Anyone heard anything?
SJ

[sailing john] 23/9/2010 09:46

Correction latest buy at 34.45p (indicative offer - 35p)
Hmmmm

[sailing john] 23/9/2010 08:50

Nice find B7 - thanks for posting
BTW - A bit more volume today with buyers at 34p. :-)
Mid up 6% quoted spread 31-35
Does someone know something that we don't?

[sailing john] 22/9/2010 08:43

Press reporing that Chinese chrome ore imports are expected to show a significant increase this month.

[sailing john] 21/9/2010 11:39

NP - You must be patient I'm afraid - these things take time particularly if there is, as I suspect, more than one interested party and I'm guessing that Mecklenburg due diligence will take some time.

Another potential outcome here is that Chromex sell Stellite and retain Mecklenburg and Zimbabwe. They would then have the funds to develop the remaining assets. I guess that outcome will depend on the type of buyer. An existing player would obviously be willing to take a single asset but a buyer with no SA chrome mines would probably want to take the management as well. Just my musings while we are waiting.
SJ

[ninjapete2] 21/9/2010 06:19

Still no news.I'm glad the offeror isn't trying to buy BHP Billiton, due diligence would take about 5 years!!!!

[sailing john] 20/9/2010 10:26

There might be a few bob in PGE's!?
IFL and Pan African sign Exclusive terms to extract PGE's from IFL's chrome ore tailings. The so called Project Phoenix claims a forecast cash cost of less than US$400/oz.
It all helps SJ

[ninjapete2] 17/9/2010 13:48

I was in a similar situation a few months back with Futuragene. There was consistent accumulation of stock throughout the due diligence period. This turned out later to have been the bidder picking up shares below the final bid price.

[sailing john] 17/9/2010 13:43

Looks like our 25k buyer is back today - taken 2*25k at 31.5/32. Mopped up the 40k sell from this morning. I'm speculating that this is the same buyer and if so has acquired a few hundred thousand over the past few weeks. Nice to know that someone is mopping up all the sells from those unwilling to await the outcome of current due diligence/negotiations.
All IMHO of course
SJ

[bonsoir7] 16/9/2010 11:25

Credit Suisse upgrading ENRC today

comment :-

Stainless / ferrochrome outlook: The key lead indicators, nickel prices, spot ferrochrome prices and Chinese chrome ore
import prices have all begun to turn up and while we do not forecast a significant rebound in stainless production we believe
the bulk of the slowdown is behind us. Spot prices are currently in the $1.1-1.2/lb range. Looking through to 2011, cost
pressures and a cyclical kicker could push prices toward $1.4/lb.

[ninjapete2] 16/9/2010 05:39

Almost no volume in the last ten days but this week somebody has started buying at 33p which seems odd as:

i) there might not be a bid at all
ii)they are paying only 2p less than the indicative offer

[bonsoir7] 15/9/2010 22:49

Govt warns mining firms

By Golden Sibanda

GOVERNMENT has warned the Zimbabwe Mining and Smelting Company and Zimbabwe Alloys Limited against hoarding vast claims of chrome without exploiting them and blocking the interests of potential investors.

[bonsoir7] 15/9/2010 11:39

warrant spread has gone from 11/15 to 12/15

[sailing john] 14/9/2010 14:42

Press reports that Chinese ore prices moving up. And Chromex offer moved up a tick (on virtually zero volume though)

[ninjapete2] 13/9/2010 11:38

I doubt the prospective bidder will raise an offer from 35p to 50p. Maybe they will squeeze 40p. If CHX hold out for more the talks will fail IMHO. After all something is only worth as much as somebody else is prepared to pay for it.

[sailing john] 13/9/2010 11:31

Very positive B7 :-)
Just had a scan though prelims for African Rainbow Minerals. Their chrome operations are about double Stellite but about the same size as Chromex when Mecklenburg up to 500kT plus
12 months to Jun 10
Sales - chrome ore 502kT
Sales - Chrome concentrate 314kT
Chrome mining cash operating profit R332m circa £30m
Fits nicely with my estimates for Chromex ie I'm still looking for 50p+ take out price.
SJ

[bonsoir7] 13/9/2010 10:39

CHINA AUG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 13.9% V 13.0%E (3-month
high)
- Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 16.6% v 16.7e
- Electrical output +12% y/y

[ninjapete2] 10/9/2010 05:19

If the prospective bidder came up with an indicative offer as specific as 35p they must have done quite a lot of homework first. I believe that if there is another suitor interested, they will let the current one do all the hard work of putting a value on the company through due diligence then trump their offer (this seems to be the way it usually works).

[sailing john] 09/9/2010 07:52

FeCr prices rising in China :-)
NP2 - I hope we get a conclusion soon and this month would be very nice but my view is that this could take several months yet. There are still issues regarding Mecklenburg which a buyer will want clearing before offering a final price. And I agree with you that there are likely to be 2 or more buyers in play which will also cause delays as they fine tune their bids. I'm happy for this to take a while longer as that is likely to produce the best result. Still looking for 50p+
GL SJ

[ninjapete2] 09/9/2010 05:38

Access to raw materials such as this has always been seen as of strategic commercial importance. Provided the assets are reasonable we might get a second suitor.

Encouragingly the share price seems to be saying that a bid is likely. Hopefully we will get a conclusion by the end of the month as we are now 8 weeks after the approach so due diligence should be complete.

p.s it is good to have a BB that lacks the BS of many!

[bonsoir7] 08/9/2010 22:57

Thanks have taken a look.

[sailing john] 08/9/2010 22:35

B7 - I post all of my trades and trading ideas here.
Please look in - there are many quality posters on this small, friendly new BB.
SJ

[sailing john] 08/9/2010 22:02

Fantastic finds LD and B7 many thanks for posting. I agree that Tata looks interesting and I wasn't aware that they were active in South Africa. If the quote is accurate they have to be added to the front runners. And I like the fact that Tata have been quite aggressive in expanding their business beyond Asia. So the revised list of front runners is:-
Suzhou Kaiyuan Chemical Co - $5m loan and 2 year offtake agreement
Samancor - Mecklenburg adjacent assets and infrastructure
Ruukki - Massive investment in new furnaces and power plant announced
Tata - Quoted in press 8 Sept as looking to purchase Chromite mines in SA to secure supplies for SA smelter
Others
Merafe, Hernic, IFL - existing SA - FeCr producers
Other Chinese FeCr producers wanting secure supplies of Chromite