Chromex Share Discussion Threads

[sailing john] 29/6/2010 12:16

Some short term negatives - product yield (action and further plans in place to resolve) and slow progress at Falvect - Zimbabwe (49% ownership for minimal initial investment) -
Some longer term positives
Significant volume increases in 2H and next year year with Chromex senior mine manager and gravity separation expert appointed from June plus capital investment in additional scavenger spiral banks, tailings thickener and of course the DMS
Price increases over the past six months FeCr price has doubled
Output at Stellite to double from Q4 with commissioning of DMS
Advanced sales contract and upfront payment of $5m.
Mecklenburg unresolved but development prceeding in advance of formal resolution. (I thing Samancor are just spoiling - as they don't need any more assets but don't want anyone else to develop mines in competition )
Waylox - Zimbabwe feasibilty progressing

I have confidence in the management team who so far have made some good calls and don't appear to be too greedy in terms of pay and share options. I'm very encouraged by the recruitment of Jean de Plessis who was at Director Level at Hernic and had been with Hernic for most of his career. This is a big vote of confidence in Chromex IMHO.
"With effect from 1 June 2010, Chromex has taken full operational control of the processing plant rather than operating through contractors. To facilitate this, Chromex has appointed two key operations personnel, Jean du Plessis and Anson Gilbert. Jean du Plessis is a mining engineer with over 15 years experience in the chrome industry. He was previously General Manager of Mining at Hernic Ferrochrome ('Hernic'), the fourth largest producer of ferrochrome in the world and was responsible for all mining and chrome processing operations at Hernic. Anson Gilbert is a chemical engineer with in excess of eight years experience in the chrome industry designing, commissioning and optimising gravity separation circuits. He will have overall responsibility for the metallurgical requirements of the Company."

[saucepan] 29/6/2010 11:20

I think there could be a big difference in the share price this time next year, which is probably a minimum time horizon for anyone investing in CHX at this stage. There is definitely intrinsic value here. As the Company points out:

"Independent analysts continue to value Stellite alone at more than the Company's
market capitalisation, so that Mecklenburg is wholly discounted in the current
share price."

[robson1974] 29/6/2010 10:46

Mecklenburg update looks good as well

Mecklenburg
Your Company has made great efforts to resolve Samancor Chrome Limited's
('Samancor') challenge to our Mining Right at Mecklenburg. Chromex's management
has attempted to settle the legal dispute through direct negotiations with
Samancor and have proposed the joint development of Chromex's Mecklenburg chrome
assets with Samancor's adjacent Twickenham and Surbiton chrome assets, and
Chromex is still awaiting a response from Samancor.

No date for the Court hearing has yet been set and our best estimates of the
timescale for settling the case are constantly proved wrong. Based on expert
legal advice, we remain fully confident that the challenge is unsubstantiated.

Independent analysts continue to value Stellite alone at more than the Company's
market capitalisation, so that Mecklenburg is wholly discounted in the current
share price. The DMR is requesting Chromex to develop the Mecklenburg mine in
advance of the settlement of the legal challenge. We are therefore commencing
work on reviewing and updating the bankable feasibility study completed in 2007
with the intention of initiating the development of Mecklenburg early in 2011.

[robson1974] 29/6/2010 10:44

interim results out

read quite well

the PGE factor looks very interesting

>1g/tonne of PGE's and gold

[robson1974] 25/6/2010 14:32

hmm odd the stock is down but the warrants seem to be moving up

[seagreen] 25/6/2010 13:48

most undervalued Chrome play on AIM actually jimmy...but dont worry yourself

[moosh2] 24/6/2010 15:39

wait till it finishes dropping i guess.

[sailing john] 24/6/2010 14:40

Added a few before the close @22.9
SJ

[jimmyjagger] 24/6/2010 13:53

Some nice selling going on here

and why not, its overvalued

[moosh2] 24/6/2010 13:52

hmmmmmm. ask still dropping on people buying! confused.

[sailing john] 24/6/2010 12:17

Interims before end of June
Although it looks like a significant retrace today it is mainly due to a reduction in the offer with the spread closing significantly to 23.5/23.9.
It will be an interesting few weeks/months

[moosh2] 24/6/2010 11:25

i thought interims were out soon!!!? perhaps today is a treeshake before they do? let's see.

[robson1974] 23/6/2010 13:41

Thanks Sailing John

indeed these charts are from the May 2009 note by Ocean Equities so do not reflect the considerable improvement in pricing since then

fantastic prospects here err.. apparently , interesting the price seems to be ticking up

still not fully comfortable with the drivers here so will await the results with interest and then will look to gain geared exposure via the warrants

[sailing john] 23/6/2010 07:04

Robson
Are these from last year?
I think the graphs need a significant extension to the right to reflect current prices. :-)
SJ

[robson1974] 22/6/2010 20:55

they say a picture tells a thousand words

[robson1974] 22/6/2010 13:28

CHX is 24/25p
CHXW quoted spread is 5/8p but you can seemingly trade within the spread

why would you not buy the warrants here rather than shares ?

If CHX goes to 48/50p for example the upside on shares is 100%
In such a scenario the warrants would probably trade at 28/30p ? implying almost 300% upside

the gearing matrix is as follows by my calcs

50% Stock Upside 125% Warrant upside ?
100% Stock Upside 300% Warrant upside ?
150% Stock upside 525% Warrant upside ?

CHX results announcement is due soon apparently, i would always prefer to buy after results in these opaque situations myself

[sailing john] 21/6/2010 13:41

Added another 8.5k @ 23p ahead of interims - likely to show as a sell as bid/offer spread 23/24p
Welcome Saucepan

[saucepan] 21/6/2010 13:32

Hi Folks, joined you long today at 23p - thanks to some sharing of excellent research by Sailing John. Cheers SJ

[sailing john] 18/6/2010 09:34

Yes - They expect to publish in June
SJ

[robson1974] 18/6/2010 08:45

are we not due interims here ?

[sailing john] 18/6/2010 08:41

World news
Cliffs increase offer for Spider by 27% as they battle to get control of Big Daddy Chromite prospect in Canada. This represents a 106% increase to Spider's share price prior to the initial appraoch. :-)
SJ

[robson1974] 15/6/2010 15:39

are you playing the warrants?

[seagreen] 15/6/2010 15:36

robson I met the analyst before it went pear shaped in jan 09 and this and norseman gold were her top tips ....norseman played a blinder and I hope this one is due to do so all be it from a delayed perspective and as sailing john says if we win mecklenburg case it may well be xciting

[sailing john] 12/6/2010 17:54

Robson
As with most Chromite resources the mine life is actually quite long - They have 30mT at Stellite so that's up to 60 years at 500kT/annum and 5-10 years will be mined open cast - on the cheap
Plus they will be developing Zimbabwe over the next few years and might resolve Mecklenburg - fingers xxd so we are likely to be looking at 1 million tonnes/annum in 2012.
SJ

[robson1974] 12/6/2010 10:14

The recent Minesite article mentions that the brokers have the company earning £9m next FY which implies 10p per share of earnings. Interims due soon so we may get some update on that.