Chromex Share Discussion Threads

[sailing john] 16/7/2010 18:32

Very true MDC but the buyer might not have any more information than the rest of us. The comapny is undervalued, they have had an appraoch at 35p, Jean de Plessis (director level at Hernic) left Hernic to join Chromex recently, the director options were stretched at 25/30p, Mecklenburg looks like a goer etc. etc.
It is unlikely that an initial opening offer is at the top of the buyers range and so likely to be more available, it just needs prising out of them. If two or more bidders in play it shouldn't be too difficult otherwise Brian will have to work for it. My valuation reamians 50-100p
SJ

[mdchand] 16/7/2010 15:40

Interest to note a wave of private selling today and one lone voice deciding to buy 100k of stock at 15.43. That kind of trade size doesn't suggest a random short term punter - but rather someone privy to information. One doesn't punt 30k just because they're bored on a Friday afternoon.

[sailing john] 16/7/2010 08:17

Thanks Robson
Just one other thought
The value to Samancor is significantly higher than any other player because the Mecklenburg infrastructure/development costs are significantly reduced as Smanacor have two adjacent mines. And of course the Mecklenburg risk is removed. On that basis I'm guessing that Samancor are likely to be one bidder and perhaps Suzhou Kaiyuan Chemical Co. Ltd who have financial ties and offtake agreements with Chromex the other.
These two companies are of course competitors.
An intetresting few weeks/months ahead
SJ

[robson1974] 16/7/2010 08:02

That is an excellent analysis.

Thank you. Will put a link to it in header of my CHXW thread.

[robson1974] 15/7/2010 21:58

Mentioned in tomorrows Daily Mail market report also

Chromex Mining was chased 8.25p higher to 28.25p after receiving a takeover approach at 35p a share.

Read more:

[robson1974] 15/7/2010 21:57

CHX getting some more good press mentions

Even someone as knowledgeable as myself only recently came across the CHX story and it does operate in quite an opaque and niche sector so not easy to understand, more newsflow is good news

[robson1974] 15/7/2010 20:03

In fact Chromex Mining headlines the Small Cap section of the FT Market Report in tomorrows newspaper...

SMALL CAPS: Chromex shines with bid

Chromex jumped 41.3 per cent to 28¼p after the South African chrome company revealed it had received a bid pitched at 35p a share, write Neil Hume and Matthew Kennard. Traders reckon the approach could flush out other interested parties.

[robson1974] 15/7/2010 19:58

CHX is going to receive another write up in tonights FT Market Report which will be published in tomorrows newspaper

[saucepan] 15/7/2010 11:56

Thanks! I was not aware of the thread! Will follow up.

[robson1974] 15/7/2010 11:47

try the WT thread if you want warrant 'gurus' opinion on CHXW versus other warrants

[robson1974] 15/7/2010 11:46

there is a CHXW thread, details there but in short

they have about 15 months until expiry so plenty of time value as these things go

the exercise price is 20p so you can buy the warrants at 10p which give the right to buy 1 CHX share at 20p

thus if you buy CHXW at 10p and the bid goes through at 35p the warrant should be worth 15p (35p - 20p)

if a bid comes in at 40p the warrant should be worth 20p (40p-20p)

personally i think long term intrinsic and time value will be much higher so happy if no low ball bid eventuates

[saucepan] 15/7/2010 11:42

Robson: Warrants are something I rarely deal with. What is the situation with CHXW? When do they expire, or under what circumstances could they become worthless (other than the company going to the wall)? What happens to their value, for example, if there is a confirmed take-over at 35p, or for the sake of argument at 45p?

Cheers.

Saucepan

[robson1974] 15/7/2010 11:05

NH on Chromex
NH We believe there are other bidders
NH and they might pay up to 40p
NH again no names
NH sorry

[robson1974] 15/7/2010 10:59

NH other things of interest in the small cap world
NH obviously there is Chromex
NH but we don't know who the bidder is

let's see if they get on the phone this afternoon and there is further press comment tonight

[sportbilly1976] 15/7/2010 10:33

large sell it would seem being worked by NOVM

[bizz2bizz] 15/7/2010 10:09

My guess is Samancor in it somewhere. 50-60p knock out bid will do it.

[sailing john] 15/7/2010 10:09

Here are my guesses

Favourites
Suzhou Kaiyuan Chemical Co. Ltd - They have already advanced Chromex $5m to fund DMS construction and have a guaranteed offtake for all lumpy ore for two years following completion.
Samancor - Perhaps now realise they have no chance of winning their legal challenge. At 35p they get Stellite at a discount and Mecklenburg for free. Mecklenburg is adjacent to Samancor's existing mines and so they have infrastructure in place.

Outsiders
South African FeCr producers - Int Ferrochrome, Merafe, Hernic
Other Chinese stainless steel producers

[robson1974] 15/7/2010 10:05

Keep an eye on the FT Markets Live blog session , these are the guys who broke yesterdays story

[seagreen] 15/7/2010 09:58

Robbo you little star .....I been in here for decades but added a few early doors thanks for pointing out the ft article......I owe you a shandy

[robson1974] 15/7/2010 09:48

Reckon we will get further press over coming days on who the bidder is/who the counter-bidders might be and the price management might be willing to accept.

[sailing john] 15/7/2010 09:46

Great to see the press speculation confirmed. And as most of us on here know the price mentioned significantly undervalues the company especially now Mecklenburg appears to be more likely and Zimbabwe progressing nicely. Not to mention the company's enthusiasm for PGEs. My valuation remains in the 50-100p range.
Happy days SJ

[robson1974] 15/7/2010 09:31

you can buy the warrants (CHXW) for 10p a 50% discount !

[robson1974] 15/7/2010 09:19

The press speculation said '30p plus other potential bidders' so it is quite clearly a competitive situation

[sportbilly1976] 15/7/2010 09:19

buy 35p for 28.75p at the moment...

a nice 17% discount!