Chromex Share Discussion Threads

[robson1974] 04/8/2010 13:45

can't access this myself...

Chinese FeCr producers lift offers on rising ore prices‎
Metalbulletin.com (subscription) - 1 day ago

Most producers rushed to raise their offers for high-carbon ferro-chrome this week to push up prices after seeing chrome ore prices increase. ...

[robson1974] 04/8/2010 13:32

I know it is quite an opaque industry being a small part of the upstream value chain which is in many cases competing with vertically integrated concerns however the long term demand drivers for steel are well documented with huge long term secular growth in India and China let alone return of cyclical growth in RoW. There will be plenty of demand for this sort of mining asset. I do not really care if the putative bidder/s walk away. I want full value for my warrants and that will either come from operational development over time or a takeover at a sensible price for the strategic value of this company. Time is very much on the side of the warrant holders here.

[kenmitch] 04/8/2010 09:32

Hope you're right. I'd imagine it will be never but will be pleased if wrong as I still hold the warrants. Tempting to sell them for a surprise profit, but won't just in case there really is a bidder having a look. A few weeks ago there was talk here and elsewhere of several bidders. Fiction?

[robson1974] 03/8/2010 23:36

It was a preliminary approach during the 'holiday season' and these assets are of long term strategic interest to a number of players so i'd imagine it would be a long process. I'd imagine it will be months not weeks.

[kenmitch] 03/8/2010 19:20

All very quiet on the bid front. Wonder where all those supposed bidders have gone, if they existed.

[robson1974] 02/8/2010 06:56

ELM - decent results from its Chromium business not sure if it has any relevance or readacross for CHX

[robson1974] 02/8/2010 06:50

China & Metals :-

Chinese PMI out looks like 'soft landing' to me. Metals prices this morning telling their own story and looks bullish.

[robson1974] 29/7/2010 22:39

it has been two weeks now since this news, one would imagine any 'preliminary' approach should be firming up as should any competing proposal

Preliminary Approach

The board of Chromex has noted recent press speculation and announces that it
has received a preliminary approach which may or may not lead to an offer for
the entire issued share capital of the Company at 35 pence per share.

This announcement has not been made with the agreement or approval of the
potential offeror and there can be no certainty that an offer will be made nor
as to the terms on which any offer might be made.

A further announcement will be made in due course.

[robson1974] 29/7/2010 10:20

bit of life returning to this

[sailing john] 29/7/2010 07:31

Off topic
SF off line - temporary home

John

[sailing john] 28/7/2010 07:54

Trade press continue to report strength in Chinese markets with increasing prices for ore.
SJ

[sailing john] 27/7/2010 15:54

Two late afternoon buys
2*25k at 29p (possibly a split trade from a single buyer)

[sailing john] 27/7/2010 12:06

Merafe 1H 2010 TS summary released today
..."in response to rising demand, ferrochrome production for the Xstrata-Merafe Chrome Venture (the Venture) for the first half of 2010 was 149% higher than the same period in 2009."
Prices European FeCr benchmark $/lb
1H 2009 - $0.74/lb
2H 2009 - $0.85/lb
IH 2010 - $1.185/lb
3Q 2010 - $1.30/lb
:-) SJ

[sailing john] 26/7/2010 09:49

Chinese chromite ore market looking positive after a quiet Q2. :-)
And - Longer term very positive given Chinese FeCr growth forecsats :-)
SJ

[robson1974] 20/7/2010 07:17

from IFL statement today

Outlook

According to CRU, stainless steel demand is expected to strengthen over the next quarter with a corresponding increase in FeCr demand, further supported by South African FeCr production cuts during the winter tariff period. Market commentators expect a market tightness to develop over the next two years due to expansion constraints in South Africa as a result of power shortages.

[sailing john] 19/7/2010 16:09

They are a possibility. From memory they were short of ore and about to start up another mine? Also investing £13m in a chrome re-treatment plant ("CRP") to extract chrome concentrate from RPM's UG2 concentrator tailings.
My money remains on Samancor and Suzhou Kaiyuan Chemical Co

[robson1974] 19/7/2010 15:50

IFL Q4 production figures due tomorrow

will be interesting for some market commentary but wonder if they will announce an offer for CHX as well ?

[robson1974] 19/7/2010 14:35

fyi just another press article about the same stuff

[sailing john] 19/7/2010 14:16

Steady progress as market realises there is value here with or without the bid. And as I and others keep saying, 35p very much an opening price IMHO especially if we have two interested parties. Even without a bid longer term valuation 50-100p IMHO-DYOR etc.
Excellent report recently posted on website

[robson1974] 19/7/2010 14:05

bit more sensible now

CHX 28.5-32.0
CHXW 9.0 - 14.0

[robson1974] 19/7/2010 14:03

CHX 28-31
CHXW 9-10

nuts surely? you can buy the warrants at equivalent price of 30p and have more gearing to further increases in the stock !

[64bit] 19/7/2010 11:32

another mention in alphaville today..


This from Ocean Equities.
Following speculation in an article by the Financial Times ("FT")
on Thursday July 15th that Chromex Mining plc ("Chromex") had received
a bid approach pitched at about £0.30/sh and that other predators were
stalking the Company, Chromex announced that it has received a
preliminary approach which may or may not lead to an offer for the entire
issued share capital of the Company at £0.35/sh.
Chromex's announcement was not made with the agreement or approval of the
potential offeror and there is no certainty that an offer will be made
nor as to the terms on which any offer might be made. A further
announcement will be made in due course.
In our June 9th research update we highlighted our view that Chromex is
set to achieve a step change in profitability and cash flow in the next 6
months as operations more than double saleable product and current product
mix/margins expand - to this end our view has not changed. Also in the
upcoming 6 months we expect the next stage of the Company's growth
strategy to become evident. The Company's current production base has the
potential to increase five-fold over the next ~2½ years coupled with a
material improvement in product mix and margins. With a significant
increase in the scale of operations we would expect to see a major
re-rating, as Chromex's cash flow attracts a higher multiple and the
Company appeals to a broader investor community.
We believe Chromex is a unique growth story which offers attractive
leverage to stainless steel growth in China – world stainless steel
production is forecast to increase by up to +25% yoy in 2010. However,
the potential medium and longer term value of Chromex's growth profile
must be viewed in light of the preliminary approach at £0.35/sh which
would provide a near term and significant uplift, and exist strategy to
existing shareholders. In the near term we expect the Company's share
price and news flow to be dominated by bid speculation. We expect
fundamental Company specific news flow in the next 6 months to be
extremely positive for Chromex as it begins to capitalise on the improved
chrome price, expand its production profile, expand its product
mix/margins, outline its growth strategy for PGM and gold production from
existing operations, and commits to the development of its low capex/opex
projects in Zimbabwe. The Company remains comfortably funded for its
ongoing activities in both South Africa and Zimbabwe.

[sailing john] 19/7/2010 07:51

Link to Chromex Q2 presentation 2010 - lots of new stuff - aimed at city investors I think

[robson1974] 17/7/2010 12:06

SJ is this guesswork about right re the PGM potential

At 1g per tonne that is 40,000 g per month or 480,000 g p.a. or about 16,000 oz p.a.

Assuming a PGM equivalent price of about $1000/oz ?

That implies potential for $16m revenue per year ?

Profitability ? No idea, just assuming 10% would imply in a roundabout way getting to near your estimate of £1m of potential cashflow