Cadbury Schweppes Share Discussion Threads

[topicel] 04/12/2009 15:09

Earlier than I thought then Kumala, that won't impress any genuine Cadbury holders or the hedgies.

As I've said before, I'd rather stay put and enjoy the yearly dividends and await a better offer down the line. Consolidation will happen again, and CBRY are very ripe and gaining traction in many overseas markets - Stitzer is right to defend this on both those counts.

For once, value isn't the only issue, and be sure it won't fall back to £6.00 even if Kraft give it up...

Topicel

[kumala] 04/12/2009 12:22

L e t t h e p a r t y B E G I N,,,,,,,,,

[careful] 04/12/2009 12:18

paulson and hedgies will get creamed on this one.
forgive the pun.

[kumala] 04/12/2009 12:11

READY AND WAITING Topical. got money tied up hear waiting for another home.......
Hope your suspicions are right buddy.
K ;)

[topicel] 04/12/2009 11:20

Wake up at the back! Kraft to open hostilities tonight I suspect...

Topicel

[kumala] 04/12/2009 10:14

watching and waiting...... zz zz zz
K ;)

[topicel] 04/12/2009 09:51

So market is dropping this a little, suggesting nothing much other than impatience.

We all know that won't make any money!

Kraft seem to be making out that the offer is taking on the 5.5b Cadbury debt and therefore is actually a bigger investment than the cash and shares offer seems at first glance, whilst Bloomberg - via Nomura - are suggesting Hershey will be supported by Nestle to bid £8.40.

So, the battle rages on, and patience of the PI is definitely required until the smoke clears. Hold.

Topicel

[equalibrium] 03/12/2009 16:02

Hi SOrry to sound like a newbe, but what is the state of play now.

I have read that they 60 days to get enough share holders to back the bid and if no rival bids arrive will the share price go to the offer price?

[yump] 03/12/2009 12:51

>careful.

Quite. I'm just mind-boggled that not one interviewer or editor as far as I have seen or read, has actually questioned this supposed 'brain-drain' threat and the irony of it.

Sorry for hijacking the Cadbury thread temporarily, but you know these events do just build up the frustration with it all and the utter BS that spouts out.

I'll shut up now ;-)

[careful] 03/12/2009 12:31

top people like Andy Hornby at HBos, Fred Goodwin at RBS.
lower down you have that bird with a history degree from oxford who guessed the direction correctly on a trade (gambling millions of other peoples cash).

she deserves a million.
and if she guesses wrong next year losing million, does she pay it back.?
answers on a postcode.

if they want to leave let them all go.

[yump] 03/12/2009 09:53

Topicel

If you mean by investor, someone who buys into a company to make money out of takeover bidding and then sell out, no I'm not.

I just don't have the herd mentality that says we either have to be on one side or the other. Conservative or Labour. Government legislating or not legislating, but nothing inbetween. No judgement inbetween because that's a sign of weakness isn't it ?

We really have the most split psyches of the western world.
Vote Tory or Labour and rubbish the inbetweeners - its childlike - we obviously haven't properly thrown off something from when we were infants.

There's no rule that says the Government have to either control everything or nothing.

Very ironic that the only area where Labour didn't exercise control-freakery is the one that threw us into recession.

RBS board threatening to resign now in protest at bonus restrictions. Warnings of losing highly skilled top people to other companies here and abroad if bonuses are restricted.

Sorry, run that past me again... who exactly are those highly skilled top people ?

You never know, perhaps Paxman will actually do an interview where he uses his brains and asks a top banker for some proof of how our banking system has suffered dreadfully from the loss of top people. The answer would be interesting as it appears that it has actually suffered from the retention of top people.

As if there's noone on the ladder ready to take their places...

[topicel] 03/12/2009 09:34

Yep, because it saves the bigger firm from shrinking within its own territory.

Kraft need to expand overseas and Cadbury offers great synergies and a quick way to do that. Likewise, if it falls through now, Irene looks like she can't deliver and will get ousted as the share price tanks.

Meanwhile, Cadbury still have Hershey and Fererro and Nestle - and possible others - looking at a very nice confectionary play. Few come into the market in such rude health. The hedge funds know it too and may well support a PE approach...

It has always been £8.50 minimum. Next week's results will underscore the present share price too. All those Xmas choccies folk love to buy!

Topicel

[careful] 02/12/2009 20:32

i see kraft are educating cadbury shareholders who seem to be clueless.
they now claim that this is a 16 billion bid.that is the 10 billion + cadbury debt.
the business is great but not that good!

you will not get more that 800p for this reason.
would you pay 10 billion to buy a 5 billion debt mountain with a chocolate company attached.?

[topicel] 01/12/2009 13:49

Oh, I get it Yump. You're the right-wing version of the Nanny State.

Government interference is bad, no it's not, it's good, but hang on, it's bad...then again...

Are you an investor or not? If all the likely bidders clear off we'll be back at £6.00 sharpish. Ho hum.

Topicel

[kumala] 01/12/2009 11:30

still a waiting game, Ive had two letters from my broker on information of the possible takeover by Ferrero, and Hershey.

The Ferrero letter states that "Cadbury plc has announced that it has receieved a potential takeover offer"

The Hershey letter states that "Cadbury plc has announced that it has received a preliminary approach from Hershey"

Nothing new.
K

[yump] 01/12/2009 10:51

Well just because we have sold off most of the silver doesn't mean its right or that it should carry on. There is a thin end of the wedge somewhere and we'll be off the end of it before either of the tory parties do anything about it.

A lot of people feel that its about time one of our governments stopped bleating 'market forces' as an excuse for inaction. They're quick enough to introduce legislation on just about every other matter.

[topicel] 01/12/2009 10:09

Hershey have similar convictions to the Quaker origins of Cadbury so a merger of equals with them and CBRY remaining independently traded on LSE would be good imho.

No room for sentiment about keeping companies British-owned after decades of selling the likes of Rolls Royce etc. overseas.

£8.50 is again looking like the knockout price, but who will offer it?

Topicel

[yump] 01/12/2009 09:40

I hope noone starts moaning when we eventually discover that we have f..k all to back our economy up in the way of manufacturing businesses. No good relying on the City any more as a bastion of financial whatever.

I'm assuming its true, but was reading that RBS (part owned by us now as taxpayers) has been backing Kraft, which is against something in their new charter about taking actions that might harm the UK taxpayer or society. ie. Cadbury manufacturing will likely disappear and admin. go overseas.

Plus we can't defend our companies very well because on a bid, the hedge funds buy in and are allowed a shareholder vote even though they've been shareholders for 2 seconds and they have no voting loyalty other than making more money.

This sort of thing will have repercussions and they won't be very nice.
Only one thing happens when the parties in power do not look after the people in their own country. They look elsewhere.

[topicel] 30/11/2009 09:38

Treading water at higher highs is very good. Especially in a nervous market, and no doubt the hedge fund pressure betting on a substantially improved offer from one or other source is doing it.

Still seems likely we will have a better bid from Kraft, but what will our board do then? If not above £8.00 it can't be recommended I guess, and so we really are in a long game unless Hershey/Ferrerro or Nestle make an official offer to really make life interesting. But no way can you be seriously expecting £8.75 Monty - nice as it would be...

All this waiting reminds me of the old days waiting for the cricket reports on the radio from down under!

Topicel

[montyhedge] 23/11/2009 15:52

Let the fight begin take out price not less than 875p.

[kumala] 23/11/2009 10:57

looking pretty good at the moment, I think we can be sure of further rises on bid speculation, I also think its just a matter of not if further bids are coming but when. Im glad i did not sell now a few weeks back.
All good.
Regards to all.
K ;)

[eurochamps5times] 23/11/2009 09:48

How wrong I was, and how glad to be wrong I am!