Cadbury Schweppes Share Discussion Threads

[topicel] 15/12/2009 14:21

But they won't get approval at the price they're offering. Don't you understand that anymore than they obviously don't?

And yes, it will go through at a significantly higher share price valuation, vested interests will see to that also! But unless Irene is lying, it won't be Kraft as they are being disciplined. Lol.

Topicel

[careful] 15/12/2009 11:57

vested interests are desperate for this bid to go through.
lots of lovely fees.
it is a shame that the traditional Cadbury factory will go.
All those yanks and Chinese will not give a damn that the chocolate is made in a new factory in east europe at a much lower cost.

remember the fuss over hp sauce..who knows or cares or remembers.
the attraction to kraft are those savings, that is why they are giving 10 billion and taking on 5 billion of debt.

a pity...but time passes...the wonders of a global economy.
ps kraft will not admit any of this.

[topicel] 15/12/2009 10:54

Those pesky analysts, what do they know? Lol.

Topicel

[topicel] 15/12/2009 08:36

careful careful, it takes a simpleton to know one...

So all the analysts all over the world, used by Bloomberg, FT, and who monitor and are used by every major company, are all to be completely ignored? Ok, you know best!

Now, the serious issue of today. Kraft have played hard ball right back at Cadbury's defence document, but they omit the emotion and historical credentials that are playing as big a factor as any in this. So future prospects are just estimates by the Cadbury board; well so is the benefits of the merger by Kraft's 'C'mon Irene'.

I continue to take a dislike to cheesy krazy Kraft, and so would rather say 'Goodnight Irene'. Oh, and no mention of the poor workforce...

Shove it where the sun don't go, as the yanks are fond of saying!

Topicel

Bring on proper chocolate companies and we'll grow together. Hershey, Nestle, show your hand...

[careful] 14/12/2009 16:51

'fair value'1000p says an analyst.
maybe the same one that said marconi was worth 1500p or bt 'sum of the parts' was worth 1950p.
you have to laugh, no doubt their outfit are short and soiling their trousers right now.
you have to laugh at the simpletons that believe it.

[topicel] 14/12/2009 16:46

Possibly Ferrero still Talon - cherry picking what might be consider contrary to the UK/US Competition Authorities under one roof?

Not sure, but indeed it may need to wait until the New Year, it will be interesting reading the papers tomorrow.

0/t - can anyone advise if you can deflect Capital Gains Tax on profits from shares above the £10,100 individual unearned income allowance by simply buying more shares? i.e. - is it only consider a declarable profit if taken in cash within the current tax year?

Don't want Gordon and Alistair to get any more...

Topicel

[talon13] 14/12/2009 16:12

Well, with the holiday season fast approaching I can't see too many fireworks in the next few weeks, but if a deal is sewn up sometime in the first part of the new year, wouldn't that give our 2010 trading accounts a flying start!!

Topicel, the thought of 900 makes me go weak at the knees but don't think Hershey's funding could stretch that far on their own, not unless a third party are definitely in the frame with them.

[topicel] 14/12/2009 15:54

Exactly, £8.50 would still be very reasonable, all this nonsense about Cadbury debt is put about by Kraft. What company isn't geared to some extent or another? And ours is perfectly manageable, particularly with the profit forecasts that appear to be achievable as the worldwide spread of our brands continues apace.

Credit Suisse is calling the fair value at £6.75 based on the last trading up date, so it will be interesting to see their revised numbers but they are steadfastly saying Kraft are playing a poor hand.

Unite, Government, Hedge Funds, PIs, and pretty much all of Joe Public are telling Kraft to clear off, so they'd better listen! That £10.64 is maximum top-end, and would presume no slippage in management plans that is unlikely with all this distraction. So Hershey may go to £9.00 in an agreed merger...

Still reckon Private Equity are keen at some point.

Topicel

[talon13] 14/12/2009 14:47

After today's trading update the brokers Panmure Gordon put a fair value figure on Cadbury of 1064 !!!!!

Ok, their analysis could be flawed, but even if you take 100 off that figure and call fair value 964, paying 850 for Cadbury doesn't seem like to heavy a price to pay, does it?

The share price should be able to trade north of 700 come what may, unless of course Mr Bear decides to revisit and savage the entire market in 2010, but hey, that's another story!

[topicel] 14/12/2009 14:30

Yep talon, they will be resigning or forced out unless they do something a bit more serious about it. £8.50 is a minimum, and if they've misjudged it all then they deserve to lose their private jets etc.

Kraft shareholders, even if they like processed cheese companies, deserve better and can safe a lot by ousting them.

Topicel

[talon13] 14/12/2009 12:32

So what exactly will Kraft do once their initial offer has been comprehensively rejected by Cadbury shareholders (as I have already done)?

They are free to walk away of course, but if they do how much will this exericse have cost them in bank and advisor fees? 50 mil? 100 mil? 200 mil? More?

I'd love to see the Kraft board square it with their shareholders as to why they were quite happy to willingly flush all that money down the can for no real good reason at all and nothing to show for it.

Once again the banksters win and everyone else loses!

[careful] 14/12/2009 11:03

large holders such as warren buffet will sell to kraft.
he has a bigger holding in kraft.
how many more are in that position, what is the structure of the share register.?
do not be sure of 850p. that is too high with cbry debt, and you will never see much more cash that kraft offered.
remember that your ceo defended M&B and we saw our shares fall from almost 900 to below 300.

the directors will do whatever is in their own interest, not in yours.
do you not fancy taking the kraft offer and then seeing kraft shares surge upwards, thus increasing the offer to 800+.
this is non linear.

[topicel] 14/12/2009 10:14

Yes K, I'd be using funds elsewhere if £8.50 came up, it has been longer than expected due to Kraft using 'financial discipline' - i.e. being cheapskates. Lol.

I reckon some time next week when Kraft up their bid and/or Hershey make a recommended move with the Cadbury board to head them off entirely. It is really who blinks first now...

Topicel

[kumala] 14/12/2009 09:08

Sounds like were gona see some action soon then, not before time for me, £8.50 plus will be good from my perspective, and most others no doubt, at the time of buying CBRY I thought the deal would have sprinted with new players entering the game faster than they have, am happy to wait for the end game but my funds are needed else where so i will be happy to exit pretty quik.
am going out in a few mins, wont be back till after lunch when i will be looing back in.
Cheers.
K ;)

[topicel] 14/12/2009 08:56

Yep, just you, me and some small players like Hedgies and Instis left here then. Lol.

The defence doc is talking about 16-18% growth in a year or two...the presentation at 10.30 a.m. should see renewed buying, but overall Kraft have seven days to make a renewed bid or clear off imho.

Hershey talks may be enough to persuade them to move aside or stump up. Credit Suisse said they can't understand Kraft's attitude and position, and to honest, neither can I. Cadbury shareholders won't be tempted in the least.

Topicel

[kumala] 14/12/2009 08:23

Still all to play for then topicel.
K

[topicel] 13/12/2009 20:43

Private talks with Hershey being reported by the Sunday Telegraph that suggest the Cadbury board would recommend a non-hostile bid between the two in order to thwart Kraft.

The defence document and trading update tomorrow will also stoke the theory that £8.50 will be coming to shareholders one way or another still.

Kraft are krazy if they think they are to going to prevent the two ethical chocolate companies getting together without a good bit more than they've offered so far.

I'd rather sell out to private equity than stick with them.

Topicel

[only who?] 07/12/2009 21:25

Another notch up soon, I think, although it's always a bit worrying when all the supposed experts in the weekend press are being so optimistic.

[topicel] 07/12/2009 18:10

careful - 500 billion eh?

Nice deramp, but the value is higher than 600p or Kraft wouldn't be offering 713p for a start!

It will have to be 850p anyway, or yes, we go back down a tad, but Kraft need us badly, that much is clear, and so does their CEO to keep her cushy private jet et al.

Happy to tell them to get knotted and await another predator or three over the coming months/years while taking dividends. This will always be too attractive for this market.

Topicel

[careful] 07/12/2009 13:52

these views remind me of Sainsbury sticking out for 630p because of its property portfolio.
Conveniently forgetting the pension deficit, the debt, not to say the competition.
the bidder walked away and today the shares are about 330p.

i have owned cbry for years but sold at 782 cash a while back.
with 5 billion in debt, this great company was fully valued in my opinion at over 600p.
this was after the restructuring following the disposal of the drinks business.

I guess there may be more to come, but I doubt if you will ever get 800p in cash.

[topicel] 07/12/2009 08:57

OK, Kraft will be heavily rebuffed and if Irene wants to keep face, and maybe her job, there she'll need to up the offer above £8.00.

It is a ridiculous came of bluff, anyone who thought that they wouldn't pay more has sold at £8.15 in the market, those that remain don't want to become part of an American conglomerate - not at £7.13 anyway!

Still expect a rival bid even though the share price is drifting down a tad. The hedgies are seriously involved for a reason and they don't often bet big to lose big - recessions apart. Lol.

Topicel

[careful] 06/12/2009 17:49

So much talk.
My money is in place.
I predict Kraft will walk and Cadbury will successfully defend.
I will be back in at below 550p.

[spob] 04/12/2009 16:12

Mandelson makes shock attack on US bid for Cadbury

Catherine Boyle and Dearbail


Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, today made an unprecedented attack on Kraft Foods' hostile £10.1 billion bid for Cadbury's, telling the US giant to "respect" the company, its staff and its legacy.

Speaking in Birmingham, where Cadbury was founded in 1824, Lord Mandelson told foreign buyers of British businesses: "If you think that you can come here and make a fast buck you will find huge opposition from the local population and from the British Government."

The Business Secretary gave his stark warning after Kraft published its offer document for Cadbury.

Kraft has been forced to go "hostile", which means it has approached Cadbury's shareholders directly, after the board of the British company rejected an offer.

Related Links
Kraft goes hostile in £9.8bn bid for Cadbury
Cadbury hopes India will sweeten deal
Cadbury's chief prefers Hershey to Kraft

Based on Kraft's share price at December 1, the offer values each Cadbury share at 713p.

It is understood some investors do not want Cadbury to engage with Kraft without an offer of 850p a share or more.

Lord Mandelson said today that a foreign buyer for Cadbury would have to "respect our company, respect out workforce and respect the legacy of our company".

Investors are hoping for an approach from one of Cadbury's rumoured alternative suitors, which include Hershey, the maker of Reece's Peanut Butter Cups, and Nestlé, the maker of Kit Kat, to push up the price Kraft is offering.

While he said it was not up to the Government to block offers for companies, Lord Mandelson warned suitors and hedge funds, which have invested heavily in Cadbury: "We expect long-term commitment, not short term profit, to rule."

In today's document, Kraft has kept the term of its original bid broadly unchanged, which offered 300p and 0.2589 Kraft shares for each Cadbury share.

Shareholders have until January 5 to respond to the offer.

Cadbury has a fortnight to prepare its defence to the bid. It is understood that it will focus on the company's potential for long-term growth, particularly in emerging markets. It could announce its defence at a trading update due on December 15.

Cadbury's share price rose 0.2 per cent to 801.5p today, despite falling earlier in the day.

Kraft has already lined up $9 billion of funding from banks, including Royal Bank of Scotland, for the bid.

Irene Rosenfeld, chief executive and chairman of Kraft Foods, said: "We remain confident that the unique combination of Kraft Foods and Cadbury would create a significant growth opportunity for both businesses. That's why we believe this offer is in the best interest of both companies' shareholders.

"Our offer is fully financed, represents a substantial premium to Cadbury's unaffected share price and provides both immediate value certainty and meaningful longer-term upside potential."