If COC are buying millions more at the current price, they are not doing it to lose money so are clearly expecting a higher return. Indeed as VC or takeover people their exit strategy would probably be a 50% uptick - which allows for a fair bit of downside on that target and still make a nice return.Timescale obviously unknown but they will have accounted for the time value of money.
Book value may well be 90p but that is not the price COC is looking for.
Rest assured COC is working hand in glove with another party which is helping to finance their share purchases.
COC, as it states, might not be looking to takeover BLVN but they know someone who is.
They will increase their stake to just below 27% but they will not chase the price.
It is clear one of the MM's is working with them to keep a cap on the share price. We might see it go through 40p but I doubt we will see the price higher than 45P. Progress above 40p is going to be very slow!
But I do expect a bid around 45/50p which COC will accept for its holding.
BLVN is at the end of its life and the death rattle is very loud and clear.
Not daft in the slightest.
COC can buy most of the shares and takeover the company. That's fine.
Until such time, Billy Allen has a duty to the "other" shareholders, let's call them "the 75%, to safeguard their interests.
Its as simple as that.
Not a complicated proposition and I suspect its more of case of "not wanting to get it" than "being able to get it" in your case log, as you seem like a bright fellow.
It is probably easier to list on AIM first, but I'm not sure New Age would want the complexities involved in a reverse takeover. It may make more sense to list themselves first, establish a value for their shares, then simply make a takeover bid using their paper so they don't need to spend any cash. They can use their paper as currency.
IMV this takeover is done and dusted. I expect 60-70% of votes to be cast and 22% are already with COC. That means KH has to get at least 73% of the rest of the votes, which I don't think he will.
If COC are still buying then that is because they believe they will make a turn on it, not to secure the vote which is in the bag.
Once they have control then I suspect an offer will come in from NA. If I was them I would already have that sown up. Unfortunately I suspect that 60p will get the company.
I suppose that is good from where we are, but not from where we could be IMV.
'I consider myself a deep value investor, but not necessarily a long or short term one. Sometimes, I hold an asset for many years but sometimes I'll flip it quickly - it really depends on the asset and the alternatives out there for re-investment of the proceeds'
This will be COC's position I guess.
'I could easily see a situation where New Age, having let COC do the dirty work for them, suddenly buy their shares at a premium before launching a takeover offer'.
I think NA actions have been premeditated they know investors can be an inpatient bunch and have dallied for as long as possible, waiting for KH to dally around a while, I think there is a possibility of colluion with COC, but hey I am a paranoid tin hat wearing guardian reader. :-)
NA know what they have at etinde and they want the rest cheap. Has there been any ore news on NA proposed floatation? I would certainly consider buying at the right price prior to etinde appraisal.
Benjimun,If someone wants to make a cheap bid for the company, I have no problem with that - we don't have to say yes.I could easily see a situation where New Age, having let COC do the dirty work for them, suddenly buy their shares at a premium before launching a takeover offer.It seems obvious to me that BLVN will soon be in play. All that remains to be seen is what kind of price will need to be offered in order to persuade holders to sell. A hostile takeover is very rare in O&G but, with Hart's removal, things become very easy for an acquirer.Will a fair price be paid? I don't know, but I expect some value to be restored, and waiting for a bid seems more sensible than selling out which I was close to doing.
COC are they trying to do an aggressive takeover or something whats going on? or just trying to remove directors?
I wish alot more other II's can do that in other aim companies, that will be fun!
If they are building a stake for another party this could prompt a full takeover.
Not long now before the board are potentially voted out, though I wonder if a takeover might come from somewhere, seeing how disappointed/let down shareholders really are here.
Come back Dragon?
Sums it up for me!briand2 - 22 Feb 2017 - 08:38 - 14746 of 14747 - 2Crown should put more detail into their plan or make a proper takeover offer.
We know very little about the individuals behind Crown and being told that some investors have made enquiries and found nothing wrong without providing details does not cut it for me. That and the amount of time and effort being put in to knocking the current board by some posters is concerning. Crown should put more detail into their plan or make a proper takeover offer.
Darby. Yes I read it but it is extremely vague in outlining a number of options which may be appropriate.I am concerned that shareholders would hand over these significant assets to a group about which we really know very little. I still hope for a proper takeover with specifics about what is the price on offer.
WShak: COC appear to have 'ducked and dived" on their strategy to takeover/dismantle and/or sell off the company, according to the chairman of blvn. He has a solid reputation as a company coo and chair over the years. I do not doubt his concerns. COC have zero knowledge of the complexities of running a junior oil company on the verge of becoming a successful production company. Blvn are set up to generate a huge revenue in not to distant future. It is not about 'polish' or public speaking but competency. Blvn have made mistakes but hey, that's life. I'm not out to be churlish.
Would a new chief exec settle the market and impove BLVN's rep in the city , absolutely, but that is not what is being muted here. Complete takeover and asset strip by a company with no experience in this Industry, there is clearly a hidden agenda and probable collusion with other parties.
A new Chief exec with a proven rack record coming in woudl be a major step in the right direction. However if KH delivers in the next few months on a revenue stream farm in for bomono and or asset purchase then he deserves his chance, just!
The way I see it COC are halfway through Plan B.
Plan A - As a large shareholder approach the board with an offer
This didn't work and BLVN Board did not mention the price.
Plan B -
Stop the buyback (this will allow accumulation of shares cheaper to obtain 15%)
Request an EGM with the resolutions of removing most of the board
Buy enough shares to obtain 15%
Now the other half of this I feel there will be, especially after Bowleven's drafted RNS today, a clearer picture of how COC plan to increase shareholder value (Not that they are bothered about the PI but they need them for the 70% and a half decent return now is worth more than waiting two years or more for the board to completely milk the coffers dry)
After that then who knows and what will happen if they don't get their 70% ? Would it then step up a notch to a more aggressive takeover than Plan B ?
slipanchor ... problem is that BLVN has been prime for a takeover for years now and it just hasn't happened. So much so that I will believe it when I see it :(
"The Board will lose vital relationships with the Cameroon Government key to progressing the assets and realising value, and lose its entire relevant oil & gas experience and industry relationships"
They are having a laugh, the only reason they stated the above was in the hope that COC might retain them. The Board are pure selfish rats, who will attack the pi in the back.
COC have raised their percentage above 15%, they could hit a takeover threshold with the share price still under 45p. Complete the takeover then for 50p/share.
The big question still remaining is who is Bankrolling them?
There is a huge amount of pish on here Blvn and vog will never be one company Vog share increase is due to the forward figures they are givingBlvn is increasing due to crown buying all the shares I personally do not wish to sell out to crown we may be lucky and see a takeover offer in the next few days however my fear is that it will still undervalue the current shareholders
Good morning briand2.
As you write there is a lack of transparency .
My suspicion is that crown are not here for the long haul; rather a fast buck.
A takeover/merger with another credible company is my preferred option too.
I previously mentioned GENL as a wildcard such company. I know a bit about GENL and have been with them since 2012. Their SP is also being badly hit . Might be easier to fend off opportunist moves by a merger. This is especially the case with BLVN at present.
As a wild-card suggestion; a complete paper merger with VOG will likely put off the jackals.
However, KH is an impediment imo. He is not going to want to get off the driving seat.
I see him as a roadblock.
As for the horse references I am up for rattling cages to provoke responses. It seems to work lol. I would not be surprised if KH or one of his staff cast their eyes over the BB's. There's nothing like a good 'nag' lol
Cyan. I do want change here and I am frustrated at the lack of progress. I was content that Crown arrived and shook things up but have concerns about their intentions and need more transparency before supporting them.My preference would be a takeover by a proper oil/gas company for a fair price.I simply do not see how comments about how Hart spends his own money advance things.
It is interesting that the share price hasn't moved up more. Presumably, any takeover bid could count on coc, as well as a multitude of others so this would be the ideal time. But.... it looks like Mr market doesn't seem to think that will happen. Wonder why. Are the any contacts or other issues that commit blvn to things that others don't want to take on ?
tli8jaguarzzzz indeedlets all have a nap while we wait on jam tomorrowyes, we dont know crowns plansbut we have significant history on what board have done, blew half a billion, trousered options, cocked up bomono by about 25p share ffs, lapsed licenses, paid deal break fees, lost operatorship benefitted from VERY favourable sterling depreciation and they would be quite happy to sit there for another few years, all they need to do is turn up at a few uncomfortable investor events and promise more jamyou seem to think that the options are between crown and maybe 40p per share and much much higher with the current boardthere is no reason to expect the board to pull this off or further drilling success at etindehappy to stop posting on this but i will say again, in a year after another round of options and big wages 35p might look rather goodbest option would be a takeover, but now who is dreaming..
They have $90mn or so in the bank, $65mn of carry and the asset. How will they go into administration? New Age and Lukoil are drilling, why does Bowleven exist and employing copious amounts of staff? CO are right, all spending should be stopped if all we are paying for them to do is deplete what cash they have left. I will be voting with CO and hope there will be a takeover in the meantime.
City speculation that the Scottish firm was being stalked saw heavy trading in BowlevenÃ¢â¬â¢s shares before Dragon Oil issued a statement confirming it was exploring an offer. Tullow Oil, another UK-listed oil firm, had been rumoured to be lining up a bid for Bowleven before Dragon made its announcement.
Read more at: http://www.scotsman.com/business/companies/energy/600m-takeover-talk-sends-bowleven-shares-spinning-up-1-2123893
remember the good old days
Lots of shares being traded on daily basis now I reckon we will see an update of co increasing there shareholding soonManagement are at loss with what to do with them I reckon co will partner with someone like luke oil for a complete takeover What a bargain they will get this for
What will crown ocean do next guysA complete takeover at this price range is a to good an offer
lets hope for a takeover in 2017... 29.1589p and they can have my stock
they had golden goose money twice, once being at the low point in the cycledid they buy anything, nodid they spend lots of money, yesis blvn a much less attractive takeover, yesare they still gifting themselves a percentage of the company each year, yesis basically the only potential we have still sitting in etinde, yesis this the same etinde that they cleverly sold most of to fund the recent slurge on feck all, yesif the small amount etinde that we have left works out will they blow that money aswell ?
Looks like CO are getting serious and think we see more action to change management or see a takeover.
Unbelievable.. must be the only O&G stock that tanks on a rising oil price... time for a takeover and an end to the Edinburgh gravy train...