Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[raffles the gentleman thug] 14/9/2016 09:31

why do you say that on stamp excel1 ??

[excell1] 14/9/2016 09:15

Galliford Try proposed a bumper final dividend after it reported a record annual profit thanks to strong growth at its housebuilding, public partnerships and construction arms. On revenue up 10% to £2.67bn in the year to 30 June, profit before tax grew 18% to £135.0m, with earnings per share up 17% to 132.5p

[excell1] 14/9/2016 09:11

Well we may now just get that relief from stamp duty that the Builders are calling for raff.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 13/9/2016 10:38

Good for you excel1 ... at these prices there is certainly not a high level of expectation embedded in the share prices ... in fact they more reflect fear and pessimism

[arja] 13/9/2016 10:07

not good ss a result of uncertainty following brexit and probably the reason the FTSE underperforming other markets . But always a nice trade if selective !

[excell1] 13/9/2016 10:07

Well money where my mouth is.Taken a few more.

[arja] 13/9/2016 10:03

builders suffering again but hopefully the DOW futures will soon rise again and drag the UK stocks along . Seems that short term downtrend not yet over !

[raffles the gentleman thug] 13/9/2016 08:19

henry ... i have to agree with rcturner2, and I am afraid I don't really have the day trader mentality to be able to advise you on short term 40p or 50p moves.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 13/9/2016 08:15

Excel1 - congrats not required as it was more a statement than a prediction. It was a huge turnaround on her part - but then we do live in an era of data dependent central banking - to that extent upward interest rate moves shouldn't really be feared since they are only ever going to happen if the data warrants it. And we should welcome that data.

The problem is much more in the negative yielding bond markets than in equities I believe, but then there has been numerous times in the past when equities perform well as bonds sell off

[rcturner2] 13/9/2016 07:25

Henry, no offence but I would rather you didn't clog up the thread with your constant comments on your trades and requesting others to take decisions for you. The purpose of the thread is to discuss the company.

[henrylightningbolt] 12/9/2016 20:26

raffles the gentleman thug when I saw the DOW turn this afternoon I thought I'd buy a few more Berkeley on the expectation of a good rebound tomorrow.

I now have 2,509 BKG at an average of 26.35p. If we rise by 2%+ (40p-50p)tomorrow my sell finger will get twitchy. Would selling B a good move ?

[excell1] 12/9/2016 20:19

Congrats raff on your prediction of a turnaround after the dovish comments by Brainard.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 12/9/2016 15:09

A measure of volatility - beta of less than one means a stock is less volatile than the market, and more than one means its more volatile. So if a stock has a beta of 1.3x then its expected to be 30% more volatile than the market, and conversely if the beta is less.

Obviously its unfair to make the judgment on BKG on one day's performance, but just making the point that the volatility has subsided and the shares are not delivering required downside protection

[henrylightningbolt] 12/9/2016 14:51

What do U mean by beta & 0.3x please ?

[raffles the gentleman thug] 12/9/2016 14:45

Good news is that stocks like BKG aren't doing what hedge funds want them too do anymore. I mean today for example these shares only have a beta of around 0.3x to whats been a sharply falling market - not providing anything like the level of protection required.

[henrylightningbolt] 12/9/2016 11:47

I also bought back 2 of my daily bets on Barclays at 167.95p which I sold on Friday at nearly 175p. I seem 2 B on a lucky roll at the moment. Bet it won't last 4 2 long.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 12/9/2016 11:44

sounds sensible henry, been active all morning too - should give us some decent upside vol to market recovery - which I think is coming

[henrylightningbolt] 12/9/2016 10:05

Just bought 750 BKG at 26.199p

[raffles the gentleman thug] 12/9/2016 09:51

Assuming economic data doesn't markedly deteriorate I think there will be a rate rise - for me December looks more likely but whether September or December, after market has given up a few percent, I would have thought largely irrelevant. And certainly completely irrelevant to the operational performance of BKG here

[henrylightningbolt] 12/9/2016 09:40

So if there is no rate rise this month then the markets will recover?

[raffles the gentleman thug] 12/9/2016 09:35

Wouldn't like to say Henry, but fundamentals are sound, and shares have retraced to 21 day moving average - but then other builders have since broken theirs Friday. Personally my own optimism remains undiminished and I have been buying this morning. Hard to see anything has changed, and it should be quite easy to see business at the margin looking better in coming months when you consider how far new reservations have fallen.

In short term markets need to get past Lael Brainard's speech this evening at 6.15. She is probably the most dovish member of the Fed and many are questioning why she is being rolled out before the Fed quiet period - personally think US rate rise is largely priced in myself an unlikely to materialise until December. But if it happens sooner then a December rate rise unlikely - so largely noise ...

[henrylightningbolt] 12/9/2016 09:27

Raffles the gentleman thug do U have any idea on an entry price back 4 me ?
My buying finger is getting twitchy. Bit worried that this might B the start of a market downturn.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 12/9/2016 09:01

Rather hard to see the selling pressure here - just 100,000 odd shares changed hands and price almost flat ...