Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[sweep stock] 27/10/2016 09:50

BKG is going crazy. I still think we are going to get a good December on housing... I but timing your entry is everything. It's the wild west at the moment with Top Trumps in the mix.

[jungle jim] 27/10/2016 08:54

I have previously confirmed with Barclays Stockbrokers that they do not lend nominee stock out, so anyone with Barclays is safe.

[garycook] 27/10/2016 08:06

To all BKG shareholders. I have today put a Limit sell order on my holding in BKG of £40,to stop Shorter,s from loaning the shares from my broker,which they can do for a fee,without me or you knowing about.I suggest you do the same.

[essentialinvestor] 26/10/2016 13:36

Ah it was Cattles!, Really good call there.

Remembering the frequency of your posts you provided ample warnings! ).

Well ahead of the consensus curve on that call.

[essentialinvestor] 26/10/2016 08:16

2025 before the 3rd runway would open approx, if it happens.

The Boris Island idea never got off the ground ).

[r ball] 26/10/2016 08:09

Cross rail and Heathrow 3 anyone? £60 target in 7 years?

[quepassa] 26/10/2016 08:05

Unlike Cattles plc which went down the plug-hole.

[rcturner2] 24/10/2016 12:13

He knows his stuff but tends to go a bit over the top.

[essentialinvestor] 24/10/2016 12:00

QP can make some very astute calls.

He was well ahead of consensus a few years ago with a bearish call on a UK sub prime lender, who's name now eludes me.

[essentialinvestor] 24/10/2016 11:50

RCT, yes agree, it's a valid point and in fairness can also appreciate QP's take.

Pidgley is a finical genius and the best reader of the residential cycle
in the sector, however read any BKG report and it hammers home the cyclical aspect.

Have followed BKG since a teenager and held on and off over the years.
Met TP when younger as my Mum worked with one of his relatives, quite a character!.

[rcturner2] 24/10/2016 11:42

DR_Smith, the planning process is what adds value, they build the house to sell the land and release the value. Housebuilders very rarely buy land with existing permission, that tells its own story.

[rcturner2] 24/10/2016 11:39

EI, yes and no.

Housebuilders run on a very long cycle, quite often 4 years or more. That means that land they buy now has to make a profit in 4+ years time. This is why they are so cyclical, they end up buying land when housing is down and they make money on the upswing in house prices, as soon as house prices no longer increase or start to fall then they are in trouble.

I'm not saying this is happening here, but people tend to get sucked into looking at current figures, which often look rosy. They look rosy because the land on which the houses was built was bought 4/5 years ago when it was much cheaper.

[essentialinvestor] 24/10/2016 11:25

There are factors that help BKG over the long term,
a population boom in the SE, regardless of leaving the EU,
coupled with decades of building too few properties in this area.
Interest rates unlikely to rise to any large degree anytime soon.

[dr_smith] 24/10/2016 11:05

A dealer is typically someone who buys and sells same thing.
House buyers add value to the land by using it differently, more efficiently, maybe replacing a single dwelling with apartment block, so creating value where it did not previously exist.
>A housebuilder with no land is worthless.
Some builders do partnership deals, with gov't or power co's with unwanted land, where they don't have to buy the land, but split profits.
Yes, "worth" may be less than optimal, but nevertheless these deals can have value.

With population increasing and land constrained, it implies we have to use what land we have more effectivley (multi-story) and/or population will gradually be co-erced into living in smaller properties, when faced with over-priced normal expectations.

All IMO :-)

[essentialinvestor] 24/10/2016 10:54

Calling prospects of a cyclical business 5 years out is pure guesswork.

BKG have a fantastic multi decade record, however as every BKG report spells out,
they operate in a cyclical sector.

Both demand and margins will fluctuate through the cycle.

[rcturner2] 24/10/2016 10:41

The problem with all housebuilders is that they are essentially land dealers. A housebuilder with no land is worthless. Their value derives from the ability to buy land cheap and then build on the land and sell the land+house at a profit. They are therefore ultra cyclical and even if the next 5 years are fine for BKG based on the existing land bank, the market is probably looking beyond that and the million dollar question is whether there is sufficient cheap land to be bought especially in London.

[crt131] 24/10/2016 10:22

Question: Do you really think they can maintain the dividend program for next 5 years?

Please let me know what you think as the dividend yield is superior

Cheers
CRT

[essentialinvestor] 24/10/2016 09:47

CRST operate in similar geographic areas to BKG and their share price looks weak IMV,
BKG in a different league but may be worth noting.

[essentialinvestor] 20/10/2016 21:42

Notice Q uacky P redictions has gone suddenly quiet,
no doubt to resurface on a bad day.

All IMHO etc ))

[phoenixw2] 19/10/2016 14:55

Run Odey run Odey run run run,
Don't give the bulls their fun fun fun,
They'll get by with their BKG pie,
So run Odey run Odey run run run!

[With apologies etc to the writer of the original war-time ditty].

[bluemango] 19/10/2016 13:37

Odey now closing his short position with a little more urgency. Now at smallest level since May 2016.

[rcturner2] 19/10/2016 05:15

I was at a conference recently to do with innovation and apparently worldwide trade mark applications are up 10% year on year and this is seen by some economists as a good leading indicator as TM applications tend to relate to new products and services.

[phoenixw2] 19/10/2016 04:17

Just reading the market close reports for UK, Europe, US [overnight] and most of the data, markets, economics etc seems to be turning quite - unexpectedly - rosy. Many discretionary spending indicators looking strong. Seems like a long time since I've sensed that feel of grass-roots positivity.