Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[jrphoenixw2] 22/9/2016 16:50

The last piece of my eventual completed portfolio/puzzle is another top-up of BKG, about another 10% of my current holding. But I'm well margined and my cautious pre-retirement phase head suggests I hold fire until I bank the mega-chunky Lancashire PLC div in December. I'd love to get it done and dusted now.... but will endeavour to be patient :)

[malcolmmm] 22/9/2016 16:16

Cant match BlackRock , bought 2314 @ 2591. very nice yield and a cash mountain to boot

[jrphoenixw2] 22/9/2016 16:05

The spike on the open might have been buying by BlackRock. Just seen the RNS to say they're over 10% holders.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 22/9/2016 15:02

Council of Mortgage Lenders data for August showing 7% month on month growth and 15% y/y was certainly positive for the whole sector, as indeed was the Savills report of yesterday, since flat London pricing until 2019 was a better outcome than anyone could possibly have expected.

[jrphoenixw2] 22/9/2016 14:51

Depending on your time horizon ... today it seems to be all the action is in Mining/Natural resources etc.
I try and console myself on such days, knowing that the sectorial focus will change in due course, when the likes of BKG once again get recognised for stand-out relative [sectorial] value...

[topdoc] 22/9/2016 14:25

why is BKG not taking part in this rally

[cancun tango] 21/9/2016 14:39

No prospect for groth in PCL until 2019, according to Savills:

hxxp://pdf.euro.savills.co.uk/uk/residential---other/spotlight-prime-london-residential-markets-autumn-2016.pdf

[raffles the gentleman thug] 21/9/2016 09:06

Good article on London property report from Savills - indicating flat prices through 2019, and highlighting that prices per square foot for dollar based buyers are now down 29% from their 2014 peak.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 18/9/2016 19:09

Thanks so much for that typo56 ... completely forgot about that - anyway thats one problem out of the way

[typo56] 18/9/2016 16:18

The big uncrossing trade at close on Friday was due to BKG exiting the FTSE 100 index. It's not capitulation going on, just quarterly fund adjustments.

[garycook] 17/9/2016 05:15

Also in 2 of mine CLIG,and HSD.Topped up for some more TW,the future yield is so appealing at 9%,and a quality company like BKG,of which I have enough.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 16/9/2016 18:33

Big capitulation everywhere going on - same thing in TW and quite a few other shares in the UK today - its a good sign imo

[cancun tango] 16/9/2016 18:23

£80m uncrossing trade!! Anyone any ideas?

[sogoesit] 16/9/2016 17:00

Interesting thoughts, raffles, thanks.
Just got my payment today so thinking about re-investing. A bit concerned about softness of market at the mo. Been offered some discounts on new property round the 10-15% mark. I think the SDLT penalty rate is probably the "unintended" consequence.
Not sure whether everything priced in here but the longer term yield is still appealing.
(Concur your comments about divorce. Most tenant occupation I see are single ex-divorced mums).

[raffles the gentleman thug] 15/9/2016 08:11

Hi Gary good to hear from you, I am doing the same and buying both. No fundamental company, industry or economic specific reason to justify the moves. It's really just short term dislocation in bond markets. When about a fifth of the worlds negative yielding sovereign debt reprices overnight in the face of slowing growth, these move happen - but for me it's an opportunity and the weakness should be short lived

[garycook] 15/9/2016 03:30

RGT,Joined you in TW,for a 9% yield.To go with my BKG.Only purchased 2,400 Shares,but have Dividends coming this month of £3,100,so will top up in TW.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 14/9/2016 13:48

Absolutely no turn around in my positive view on BKG or the whole sector excell1 ... if there were I would say. My words were merely a thinly veiled rebuke to the poster who haunts the TW thread and now seemingly the BKG thread too with self publicising comments about his modest gains, and stating the obvious about market movements.

The reality is, as you and everyone else knows, the BKG fundamentals cannot be described as "good", since they are the ONLY home builder seeing a continuation of the collapse in new reservations - and I call -20% a big number.

But from my perspective that is more than captured in both the current share price and the management's guidance of rolling deliverable gross margin declining from £3.25bn down to the more normalised £2bn plus levels.

From here on in, unless the Government change strategy, you invest in BKG for deep value not growth. If you want growth, and are prepared to accept lower dividends and pay a higher premium to book value then you go elsewhere in the sector.

[excell1] 14/9/2016 13:10

Doing a bit of a 180 deg turnaround with your comments recently raff.Now I wonder why that would be.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 14/9/2016 12:34

I personally don't exactly call a 20% drop in new reservations, and new development being put on hold as good fundamentals but I guess a market takes all sorts ...

[arja] 14/9/2016 12:16

sadly good fundamentals do not always translate into a rising share price as shown by the builders underperformance in the market in last week or so . It can change quickly of course and fingers crossed for that as I prefer to go long rather than the occasional short .But I am realist and try not to fall in love with any stock .

[raffles the gentleman thug] 14/9/2016 11:51

Agreed rcturner2 ... I actually rent out a number of properties myself and the demand from divorced singletons in their 40s and 50s is depressingly high - and in the borough I live in Surrey over 35% of council tax rated properties are single occupied, earning a 25% rebate to council tax.

This dramatically underpins the secondary rental market, but has little influence I think on new build reservations, which still predominantly go to first time buyers and the elderly seeking to downsize.

In my experience EU migrants, particularly those from Eastern Europe don't even get involved in the bog standard new build market

[rcturner2] 14/9/2016 11:35

The main driver is actually the reduction in the number of people per household.

Divorce and people living longer has led to a large increase in the number of people living alone.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 14/9/2016 10:27

what's with the "get real" comment excell1 - have I said we don't need to build - I don't think so.

[excell1] 14/9/2016 10:11

There is obviously one other solution to the lack of housing in this country.That is for each household to become a house of multiple occupancy.Now how do you raff fancy a family in each of your bedrooms with shared bathroom and kitchen.Get real we need to build like never before and to say that immigration will stop completely is a myth,even if we do manage to achieve a immigration policy better than we have at present.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 14/9/2016 09:55

oh ok ... I personally don't think the 3% makes a jot of difference to whether houses are actually built or not - all its done is to lower demand a little and dampen house price inflation a bit. So I can't really see that changing, although I believe the Government does need a privately owned rental sector for the housing market to work.

For me the issue is the 12% stamp duty on houses over £1m, because this will restrain supply over time in London. Many developments rely on the sale of expensive homes to effectively cross subsidise the sale of cheaper homes, and if you have policy blocking the top end of the market, then the rest suffers as you can see perfectly well with BKG voluntarily managing its business in London down. That won't hurt shareholders but it will hurt residents of London who's see continued price inflation of modestly priced homes as a direct result of the supply shortage