Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/9/2016 08:35

BlueMountain increased its short into the numbers - ouch

[excell1] 06/9/2016 08:30

Comprehensive answer raff.Many thanks.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/9/2016 08:28

excel1 ... at 2773 its a straight 7.22% yield through to, and including 2021. However I prefer to treat it as a bond, given the yield stability and duration, and instead look at yield to maturity, making assumptions on par value based upon what premium to forward book it should trade on, in 2021. If you are prepared to look at it that way, and I appreciate many will not, then its still a 12% plus yield

[r ball] 06/9/2016 08:24

Concertina. On track.

[excell1] 06/9/2016 08:24

Remind me raff,what is the calculated yield,think it was about 7.5%.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/9/2016 08:22

garycook ... I think what many fail to realise fretting about this 20% decline in new reservations is that the company has been communicating loudly and clearly for some time, that it is transitioning down from £3.25bn of forward gross margin to a sustainable £2bn - so this news, together with deferral of new projects is entirely consistent with that.

And despite the earlier comment from eggbaconandbubble, describing BKG management as whingers, and recommending buying TW, he needs to understand that TW has been an equal proponent in lobbying Gvt to change Stamp Duty, and has itself a disproportionately high exposure to top end London development - you don't see it directly in their results, but their London development side is their most profitable regional office and frankly can make or break their results.

[excell1] 06/9/2016 08:19

Sounds as though they have cash coming out of their ears.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/9/2016 08:14

hi gary .. got 2667.87 and pretty much all the volume thereafter up to 2720 - so happy,

Guess too many others had head between legs talking about whingers and negatives in the results ...

[garycook] 06/9/2016 08:11

RGT,Did you get 2684,or lower.Market likes the TS,up now 3.5% at 2783.

[excell1] 06/9/2016 08:05

Nice fat dividend to come.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/9/2016 08:02

Thank you whoever just sold me the cheap ones at the open ..

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/9/2016 08:00

well its clear London won't meet its home quota without cutting Stamp, whole market being clogged up, new developments postponed etc, and most importantly Government tax take slumping. I know what I would do ....

Trading update looks just fine in my opinion so resuming buying this am

[jrphoenixw2] 06/9/2016 07:57

Yep RTGT, the govts Autumn Statement is going to something to look out for. Helping the better off [and foreign investors] isn't exactly politically palatable but there is a new broom in no.11 and perhaps they can justify cutting SDLT on the basis of supporting provision of the 'affordable homes' quota... we'll see!

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/9/2016 07:51

Just watch this stock the day top end Stamp is cut

[eggbaconandbubble] 06/9/2016 07:46

What a bunch of bloody whingers!
Many years of experience tells me that when management start whining about external factors they are trying to soften the blow and make excuses for impending problems due to their own bad management.
Sell these and buy Redrow TW or better still a smaller player like Gleeson or Inland.

[warranty] 06/9/2016 07:29

Just depends how the market takes it now. More negatives than positives so that probably means tin hat time but since I'm in for the income the share price fall doesn't bother me overly much if that's what happens and might even encourage me to add a few more.

[garycook] 06/9/2016 07:19

No real surprises in the Trading statement.But basically asking the Government to reduce Stamp duty.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 05/9/2016 08:00

Ordinarily I might agree with you r ball, but tomorrow is merely about meeting analysts forecasts for the year and 2017, not beating them. As you know the vast majority of sales and earnings for 2016, 2017 and part of 2018 arise from pre-sales already made, and on which they are sitting on customer deposits. The only thing which can jeopardise that is the cancellation rate, which I guess they will guide to whether that remains in line with historic norms or otherwise tomorrow.

Obviously anything they can say on improving new reservations, or project launches is helpful, but unlikely to change earnings a jot short term

[r ball] 05/9/2016 01:04

Its beating analysts forecasts which is important which is different to "good news". Berkeley is tight lipped between announcement dates which makes it a great stock to short but also one to be wary of.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 04/9/2016 19:45

Might agree with you if there was expectation in the share price, which there isn't. First five months were rubbish, with new reservations off 20%, and then negative commentary in Telegraph today, and everyone fretting about cancellation of Barnes project. Is anyone really expecting much in way of good news - I don't think so.

[catswhiskas] 04/9/2016 18:33

Got a funny feeling there might be a buying op at some point this week accompanied by Montyhedge who will no doubt remind us that he did warn us.

[rcturner2] 04/9/2016 09:28

I think holders can also take comfort from the fact that the directors bought shares in significant amounts post the brexit vote.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 03/9/2016 23:06

exactly r ball - spot on - and yea the National Grid partnership has much to offer

[r ball] 03/9/2016 20:12

It's a concertina company. Berkeley has grown and shrunk at least twice before. This is why it had sufficient funds to buy cheap land in 2006 onwards which underpins profits now. The other builders nearly went bust and did not have the money to do so. The partnership with N Grid is the way forward.