Barclays Share Discussion Threads

[mani2013] 15/12/2015 12:52

Let me see if I can elaborate...

The price of a instrument at any given time is the inherently agreed price between any number of buyers and sellers. It is a balance point struck between all market participants of an instrument at any given point in time, taking account of all 'known' information (fundamental, economical, political, technical etc) available to the participants to make their decision on what the price should be. This price then gets imprinted on the chart.

(I put 'known' in quotes as there is often information unknown to the general public, but known to a few who will act on quietly on that information in the background e.g insider trading. But their action of buying or selling will still be imprinted on the chart, unless they are playing in the dark pools).

My point is that the charts already take into account all known fundamental information. All you have to do is simply apply TA to then make your decisions.

And yes, charts can show you the potential risk of doom well before the actual event(s) take place. As large amounts of money move in and out of instruments, the prices can imprinted on the chart. If the majority of players are feeling bearish and decide to sell, the price gradually starts to move down until there are majority of players that begin to feel bullish. This also vice Versa when the price moves up.

I quote the DOW, because it is the single most used 'thermometer' to gauge stock investor sentiment.

Hope that above makes sense !!

[cmillar] 15/12/2015 12:24

Thanks Mani,

Agree with a lot of what you say but I'm afraid that I don't think that everyone would sign up to all Financial markets being based on TA though.

I appreciate the use of TA for traders but I would debate that Company Fundamentals and Geopolitics play a part too as that will inform the Risk aspect of your argument.

Are you definitively saying that the charts point to Doom?

[mani2013] 15/12/2015 11:41

Unfortunately, all these calculations and research requires hard work. Trading is hard and tiring !! Most punters don't want to put in the hard work required and simply want to make a quick buck. The professionals see you coming :)

[mani2013] 15/12/2015 11:34

Cmillar, Would like to give you a full blown technical analysis based on support/resistant principles on which all financial markets are based, but it would simply take too long to explain, let alone type up !! All professional players use S/R systems to get in and out of the markets as it minimises risk but maximises profit potential. Basically every professional trade comes down to risk/reward ratios. Trades (long or short) are taken only when a particular risk:reward ratio is acceptable to the trader. E.g a risk: reward ratio of 1:3 is generally acceptable. A 1:1 is not worth the risk. To work out a risk:reward ratio, you need to know where you are going to get in and where you are going to get out if (a) if the prices moves in your direction OR (b) if the price goes against you (ie stops).In all my research I have discovered that this is what drives price movements and trends.

[sr2day] 15/12/2015 11:27

only biased information on here I am afraid.

[cmillar] 15/12/2015 11:17

I HOPE for some informed opinions and information that can be discussed and debated.

[gbb483] 15/12/2015 10:38

I read a lot of words and opinions but very few facts and even less analysis. That which I do see is often very selective and rather misrepresentative

This is a Bulletin Board - what do you expect?

[cmillar] 15/12/2015 08:58

I read a lot of words and opinions but very few facts and even less analysis. That which I do see is often very selective and rather misrepresentative.

I understand that any comparisons are difficult as there will always be variants - Oil price, Weak $, Inflation, Current Account balances, Unemployment etc. etc.

But it would be nice to see a reasoned, balanced argument as to why I should sell everything and run for the hills.

[sr2day] 15/12/2015 08:37

Who are selling the properties,Englishmen or froreigners.all the London football clubs are owned by foreigners,why,because we are in a financial mess.

[savogi] 15/12/2015 08:11

Ny Boy

Very good point.... London property market is built on dirty money and Corruption.

i.e: Stolen Syrian and Iraqi oil via Turkey.... How can an Englishman who wants to start a family compete with that in London?

[ny boy] 15/12/2015 07:45

Wait until they start investigating all the banks regarding the dirty money that has been pumped into the prime central London property market, alot of the monies blatantly stolen from various Countries abroad. No wonder the central London market is imploding, the crooks can't sell out as there are no more crooks to buy at the vastly over inflated prices. Sickening to the core that the UK government has allowed this to happen.

[savogi] 15/12/2015 07:10

Of course Ball Deap is right.. He has been screaming from the rooftops for the last six months to reach "for the door"... but it fell on deaf years..Those that do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. None of the problems that caused the crisis the last time around have been fixed.

All of the fundamental economic numbers are absolutely screaming "depression", and yet most of the "experts" are still forecasting good things for the coming year.

[ianood] 14/12/2015 20:23

Exactly, come back in 6 months

[mattboxy] 14/12/2015 20:22

Ball swap how big is your short? Or are you another of the wonderfully generous soothsayers that can see the future yet feel it is wrong to profit from it but a Good Samaritan to save others??

[informant] 14/12/2015 18:36

Ianood

If that is the case, bank would be out performing. Don't forgot stock markets look to the future.

[ball deap] 14/12/2015 17:41

My illuminati contact says there is no end in site to the bear market, reach for the door, open the door, bail out of the door. Time is beyond short to save your shirt, banks and EU indexes dead in water.

[smurfy2001] 14/12/2015 15:17

Indeed, banks were also paying record dividends back then.

[ianood] 14/12/2015 13:41

Informant - like it or not but banks profitability is greater when rates are rising. Rising interest rates are symptomatic of stronger economies, The two go hand in hand!

[informant] 14/12/2015 13:23

2007 property prices were shooting up. Now they have caught up to that level. Oil prices now are 2009 levels. Stock markets have done much gaining in past two years.

[smurfy2001] 14/12/2015 12:14

Wasn't the case prior to the recession. Look at the bull market from 2003 to 2007, rates were rising along with the stock market. Oil was not far off record highs too.

[informant] 14/12/2015 11:38

Rate hike is bad for stock markets. It moves money from stocks into high interest bank accounts. Stock markets tend to be flat.

[ianood] 14/12/2015 08:26

Good for all banks usually