Barclays Share Discussion Threads

[mani2013] 07/1/2016 14:47

lol !! Reimomo, maybe I had one too many coffees !! It was fun though.

But seriously, the 'long answer' was always going to be controversial. It is a complex subject to discuss, especially on a forum. Perhaps easier in a pub over a pint !!

Now back to some trading :)

[reimomo] 07/1/2016 14:31

Mani, you started well, but went drastically off course :)

Keep checking those graphs.

[mani2013] 07/1/2016 14:16

Aologies, cool hand kev..

Here is a barclays post...113919, which is what started the debate.

I tried to keep it techical and rational, but somehow ended up justifying my views as one comment led to another !!

[johnwise] 07/1/2016 14:08

Barclays plans to shut most of its cash-equities business in the Asia-Pacific region as Chief Executive Officer Jes Staley pushes to reduce costs

[cool hand kev] 07/1/2016 14:04

Any thing about Barc on here?

[mani2013] 07/1/2016 14:02

PramBigear,

Thanks for your input.

I think you may have misunderstood my points(s) or perhaps taken them out of context.

I am not denying that we as a species have advanced over the ages. There is no doubt about that. But my claim is that the advancement is as a result of evolution. Better brains lead to more efficient tools and better ideas and therefore better lifestyles. But to use those tools effectively and implement those ideas requires money.

Where has the money come from ? From the banks I hear you say. Where do they get their money from ? Do they have enough to sustain EVERYBODY's ideas or just a handful who will implement their ideas to create demand and make themselves rich at the expense of the rest of the population. It's a zero sum game. somebody has to impart with their hard earned money to make someone else rich.

A bank uses leveraging to lend money. e.g it holds £30m as collateral to lend out £100m in anticipation that the lucky few that have implemented their ideas will generate enough returns over so many years into the future to service the debt.

If we all pull out our money from the banks right now, what will happen to the bank and it's lending ?? The government will back it up. How ? By printing more money. Which is exactly what has happened over the past few years. The world population has increased and the governments need to print more money to distribute in order to generate demand and keep capitalism going.

What is the net effect of printing more money ? It will devalue money. Against what assets ? Against the only pure asset that actually exists..... land. The planet. Which has already been 'sold' several times over against 'future earning' to support the growing world population and keep up the demand to prop up the world economy.

Are you getting the big picture ??

Try to analyse the machinery of capitalism bit by bit and lead it to its logical conclusion.

All this has little to do directly with trading, which, as I said, is nothing more than a zero-sum game. The quicker you learn the rules and get good at taking other people's money before they take yours, the better. And how are you going to do that ? By giving yourself a mathematical edge to win consistently.

[alphorn] 07/1/2016 13:20

Mani - thx for your reply.

[mani2013] 07/1/2016 13:19

reimomo,

I fear you have missed the point I am trying to make. It is hard to clarify it in a short forum posting. Try to see the (very) big picture.

The equities marketplace has changed significantly over the past few decades with the introduction of shorting. More and more 'investors' are learning how to go short as it has become a vital component of trading for all sorts of reasons (speculation, hedging, arbitrage etc).

Granted, the 'buy and hold' strategy is still prevalent in UK stocks as shorting is still a relatively new concept. But as more and more players learn the skill and incorporate in their trading strategies, buy and hold strategies will become the minority and no longer viable.

[mani2013] 07/1/2016 13:16

Alphorn,

Thanks for the response. I appreciate your sentiment.

What you are referring to is more commonly know as hedging, and yes, hedging (going short to protect a long term position or vice versa) happens all the time in the markets.

Just to clarify, when I say the markets are a 'casino', what I actually mean is that, in effect, you have apply Game Theory stategy and rules when trading. Game Theory has its roots in mathematical probabilities.

The simplest analogy I can give is the game of BlackJack. Superficially, it looks like gambling, especially if you don't know what you are doing). It is actually a strategy play based on mathematics probability.

You can win at Blackjack consistently, if you can learn and understand how to stack the odds in your favour. I say to people, if you want to understand what trading is all about, first take up blackjack. Understand everything there is to know about the game and how to win at it consistently (i.e when to draw, fold or double). Winning consistently at trading requires a similar approach.

[nick9013] 07/1/2016 13:09

Please please leave this stock. NOW

[reimomo] 07/1/2016 13:04

The short answer:

No. Equities are still quite different from currencies. For a start you're assuming there are an equal number of short sellers as longs. And you're making no allowance for the elephant in the room: Productivity. As technology improves over time so does efficiency. For someone to make money on a currency trade someone else has to lose. Not so with a growing company that pays dividends.

Google is your friend.

The long answer: Hmm, if you like. Of course everything is turning to dust. Does this affect buying and holding Barc over the next 10 years? Not really.

[alphorn] 07/1/2016 12:51

mani - an interesting read. I do not agree with all your views:

- short term and long term trading are not in separate "boxes". eg You could have a short term buyer trading from a long term seller.

- shorting is not only casino play. It is also a protection of your financial assets. I insure my house against fire but do not expect it to burn down every year.

- you can "sell" assets several times. Take a war; build a city then blow it up and rebuild it. Most wars are destructive and then dish out lucrative rebuilding contracts.

It is not all black and white!

[mani2013] 07/1/2016 12:38

lol !!

Cmillar, not quite so. Evolution does have a part to play. The difference is, over the ages, we have learned how to efficiently extract and use the earth's resources to better our lifestyles. These resources are not limitless.

As I say to my friends/family:

Over the long sands of time, all that remains is the passage of wisdom, from one generation to the next.

The 'growth' is in us as a species. It has nothing to do with the 'growth' of companies or countries

[cmillar] 07/1/2016 12:26

So we are as well off now as Cavemen were 50,000 years ago.

There's a cheery thought!

[mani2013] 07/1/2016 12:09

Reimomo,

You have raised a good point. One to which I have an answer to, but would require an extensive explanation (which would take time) rather then as a short posting in a forum. I fear the answer I put here will only show a little piece of the jigsaw puzzle that the world is. Nevertheless, I will attempt to respond :)

The short answer:

Ever since shorting of stocks was allowed, investing has also become a zero-sum game. It is now no different from playing currencies (non-pegged or free market i.e not government controlled e.g The Yuan) or commodities.

The only difference between short term trading and 'investing' is the timeframe you use to make buying/selling decisions. Bottom line, both are zero sum games. Each timeframe has it's own set of players, each one trying to take money off the other. Stock markets that allow shorting of stocks (not all do) have become like casinos where only those players with a mathematical edge will win consistently.

The long answer:

The long (and full) answer is deeply philosophical and beyond the scope of this forum. Suffice to say the whole concept of capitalism and growth is actually an illusion. To show you how, I would have to write a book !! I spend a lot of time thinking about all aspects of life. Deep down I am very philosophical. This also is the basis for my trading.

If you ever get time, think about how capitalism actually works. Run through the process to it's logical conclusion and you will see it amounts to nothing in the end but the governments (or powers that be) printing extra money every now and then to support the ever burgeoning world population in order to create demand and give the perception of 'growth'.

There is only so many times you can sell the Earth. The powers that be need to find other planets to divide up into little bits and 'sell' to the population and keep the machine of capitalism going. Mars is next :)

[smartypants] 07/1/2016 11:38

So thats 2016 done...over in less than a week...yes
It will take the rest of the year to pick and scramble the Sp back to where it was days ago.
Take a look at the BARC page here on ADVFN one page back from here...see the chart on the left, the one year chart ?...notice the decline was programmed in 6 months ago, there have been a few blips along the way, but it held on to its instructions and followed its course
remember the euro crisis..the Greece drama.. it seems things are worse than that ?
Its one big scandal one big fix.
China ??..so..world wide the population of the globe, ever increasing, they, we are all going to spend less, consume less, then we they have in the last 12 months..2 years...5, 20 years??
Take a step back, and see the big picture...its a fake.

[reimomo] 07/1/2016 10:32

Mani - Playing the markets is a zero sum game.

Depends on what you define as playing the markets.

Is investing a zero-sum game? No, of course not. If it was companies would never float, growth would never happen and the whole economy would collapse. Companies, for the most part, grow, pay dividends and are worth more X years in the future than they are today.

If you call playing the markets as short-term speculation then yes,it's one group of gamblers against another.

[mani2013] 07/1/2016 09:57

Thanks Alphorn,

Have corrected it ! Wrote in haste this morning, as it's a very busy day !!

[alphorn] 07/1/2016 09:54

mani - "Obviously this does bode well for BARC".

...........you may have missed a "not" there - changes the sense a little! ;))

[mani2013] 07/1/2016 09:45

gcom,

I know you don't like what I have written, but hey, that's the way it is. I am not going to sugar coat just so that people feel good about their long positions.

Don't know if you have read any of my previous posts regarding technical analysis, but the charts do not lie. They are an objective reality of what is actually happening. Basing trading strategies on 'fundamentals of the business' is subjective and flawed, as you always live in hope, and not listen to what's actually happening.

You only know what they tell you and what they want you to know. Are you honestly telling me you know more than the professionals who are currently showing us on the charts that the price is going down ??

Playing the markets is a zero sum game. Somebody has to lose for somebody else to win. For the professionals to win, you have to lose. They will tell you whatever you want to hear to get that money off you :)

Has the penny dropped yet ??

[gotnorolex] 07/1/2016 09:36

Hell no! Time to nibble again.

[ball deap] 07/1/2016 09:05

Get the hell out !!!