||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Avocet Share Discussion Threads
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|You might want to take into account debt payments, the recent unrest and strikes and the short life of mine before jumping to conclusions on any p/e calculations. AVM still way into negative equity. Needs a huge increase in pog to remain long term viable. It could make you a decent short term return as a speculative punt.
|Basic investment case
Mcap at 62p is £12.9 million
production 84,000 ounces a year
resource 7.4 million ounces in various categories.
all in sustaining cost $1050
84,000*1050=$88,200,000 just to break even.
84,000*1100=$92,400,000 profit of $4.2 million
84,000*1150=$96,600,000 profit of $8.4 million
84,000*1180=$99,120,000 profit of $10.9 million.
84,000*1200=$100,800,000 profit of $12.6 million.
84,000*1250=$105,000,000 profit of $16.8 million.
so at todays gold price we should be throwing off nearly 11 mill profit while capped at £13 mil with no value for the resources already proven.
put that on any sort of p/e of 2 or 3 and you get a MCAP of £39 million or £1.80 a share.
at $1250 gold which is achievable this quarter the target shareprice is nearer £2.35 based just on profit.|
|also ubs investment bank has increased to over 10%
thats another positive in this gold price environment.|
|just bought in although paid 10% more while I checked what the actual MCAP here was as their own website was saying £134 million
high costs here but with nearly 80k ounces production every $10 increase in spot gold adds 780k to profit and on a MCAP of just £13 million its very material.
thats really the rationale behind the investment.
I remember Eric sprott from sprott asset management saying years ago that the biggest movers amongst the producers are those with the highest costs per ounce as they experience the biggest jumps in profit with a rising spot price.
yes there is debt here but so is AAZ and thats capped at double AVM with similar levels of debt and no where near the level of production.
the fact that we are now un-hedged should act as rocket fuel as evidenced by todays rise and thats just the start.
with gold over $1200 soon our profit margins pretty much doubles.|
|Every $10 on spot gold adds 700-800k to profit. Capped at £13 mill makes for a good play on rising gold prices.|
|Surprised no comments on the sale of 40% of the Tri-K assets for $4m to Managem. They will get it through BFS and will then end up with either 60% or 70% of the interest...AVM assets effectively being sold off here and these are the only ones worth anything going forward. If AVM make it through 2017 i will be amazed, assuming pog stays at current levels.
|Out at 55.45P.|
|Oh yeah nice RNS, watch this rise and the shorts get roasted.|
|Worth a wee punt on positive horsetrading to resolve difficulties: 7000 at 49.75p.|
|Mixed news in today's RNS, good news on the court case outcome jut needs the gold releasing and an agreement between the two parties and the mine can re-open. Great buying opportunity now|
|Why is this dog languishing|
|Gold will boost it when that arrives.|
|going to 150 soon|
|Big rise, expect a slower recovery 80-85.|
|RNS inata back in biz soon, decision backs company but have to sort debt.|
|Where is the RNS? Looks bad|
|quick one til this am. Suspect another big rise coming maybe from 50p if gold helps|
|People playing with fire here imho|
|I suspect that many of those buying this are just speculating, probably haven't even read the recent RNS|
|trend trumped so going up, bounce from 1300? but FOMC unlikely to raise so may run up until 7nov when case deferred or found against them|
Yep I hope they realise a busted outfit can't pay. Company playing poker.
suspect about 15-20p by 6Nov|
|I may buy some again at 2p for the final dead cat bounce.|
|This has been a valueless share for a long time now. It might make a few spikes here and there on random news but the plain facts are that the company sits well into negative equity, Inata does not have a long life-of-mine and all the Tri-K assets are collateral on a loan from Elliott. If anything comes of them i expect the loan to be called in, AVM to declare bankruptcy and Elliott to take the only part of the assets that might have a future. I suspect that this will become a single figure penny share again at some point in the next 12 months.
|Well, the company has done the right thing in suspending operations and really raising the pressure on the government, there are now a lot of laid off miners who will be just as angry as the ones fired for the illegal strike.|
|Keep an eye on these I have feeling could be amazing value, Hector eyeing it I guess and correct on grammar as usual.
Take care UKGeorge I think whip back might be violent especially if gold market gets the whip out too.
But then again bust they might go.
7 November verdict may be delayed as happens sometimes in these countries so down until then, where to .... suppose we'll wait.|