Autologic Share Discussion Threads

[nickcduk] 30/1/2007 09:26

No problem Nick. It looks like I was spot on with my reading of L2. Im not sure whats behind todays rise though because the buying came straight out of the gate today. It may have been helped by a broker note somewhere. Im hoping its more insider trading and we get a knock out bid later on today but we live in hope!.

[skyship] 30/1/2007 08:46

Nick - From one Nick to another - thanks for the above.

[nickcduk] 29/1/2007 19:41

Sorry for not posting earlier regarding your question about the l2 order book. I think the stock has stabilised and it wouldn't take much for it to be propelled higher. Late in the day the 25k trade at 79.25 went through. A 10k order at 79 was also placed directly on SETS rather than via a broker. It suggests there is a buyer looking to hoover up stock around current levels. If he doesn't get filled on the bid price he may have to buy shares off the offer and will therefore move it higher. I think it would only take about 40-50k of buys to clear the overhang that the brokers currently have.

[skyship] 28/1/2007 14:58

Interesting trades this past week. AT trades took it down from above 90p, then a succession of small O & AT trades crashed it down to 76p - way lower than volume warranted. Presumably the MMs were overstocked and wanted to shift the laibility, even at a high %age loss. Friday's buying, though small, would seem to have cleared their books; so we could well see a good rally back to the 90p level next week.

Rather blind on the overhead stock however as I'm not on L2. Can anyone assist with that tomorrow morning?

Incidentally, on 23rd January last year ALG issued its PRE-CLOSE PERIOD TRADING UPDATE for the y/e 31 Dec'05. Maybe we will get such a statement next week.

[nickcduk] 25/1/2007 19:45

I agree that the mezzanine debt isnt really helping here. They have made very good progress on that front though and are down to around 8m now. They should manage to clear that away by year end through further disposals and profitability. The Spanish property disposal isn't too much of a worry for me. They have a non-refundable deposit in the bank and if the buyer doesn't complete for some reason they can always sell it on to someone else and keep the 3m+ deposit. If its being held up for some reason i imagine that its not from ALG's side and if so they would charge interest on the balance until its forthcoming.

Im just hoping that once everything is tidied up they attract the interest of a private equity bidder like Moulton who might be willing to pay 150p for the business.

[catandcrow] 25/1/2007 17:14

also shouldn't we have had a RNS re: the Spanish deal completing on the 19th?

[catandcrow] 25/1/2007 16:48

The problem may also be the mezzanine which will hit 15% soon. Don't know how much is paid off at present.

"However, a further 6 per cent rolled-up interest is added to this in 2006, increasing to 15 per cent in 2007. The interest is payable upon early redemption of the facility, or when it expires at the end of next year."

[nickcduk] 23/1/2007 16:11

I think its a large over reaction for ALG. They have their stake in GAL valued at 0 in the accounts and i think thats the value that most people had also pencilled in following the lapse of the option. Its a buying opportunity for me and im in at 84 and 80.25 and will add some more if we get any further weakness.

[catandcrow] 23/1/2007 15:52

maybe this - could be a buying opp

DJ GAL Outlook More Uncertain After Lead Bank Exits -Sources


FW, 01/23 09:01AM



By Anousha Sakoui
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The future of French company Global Automotive Logistics
is looking more uncertain after its lead bank lender Royal Bank of Scotland
recently sold its debt in the secondary market, said people involved with the
situation Tuesday.
The circa EUR8 million debt is believed to have been sold to another lender,
Bank of America, the people said.
Both Royal Bank of Scotland and Bank of America declined to comment.
On a more positive note, it seems the sale is linked to a push by senior
lenders to consolidate their holdings, and it is hoped that Bank of America
may take the lead in talks, said one creditor.
GAL's creditors, as well as its three shareholders, have been in talks for
over a year on ways to restructure the company's balance sheet and a key
contract with customer Renault, which expires in early 2008. In May 2006, the
company was placed in a French Safeguard procedure, freezing debt payments and
protecting it from bankruptcy for six months. A three-month extension to the
procedure expires Feb. 8.
GAL was formed in 2001 by a consortium of logistics operators in Europe to
acquire Compagnie d'Affretement et de Transport, or CAT, from Renault.
At the start of December, one of its three shareholders, Swedish shipping
business Wallenius Lines, which had been spearheading restructuring
negotiations, decided not to exercise an option to raise its 40% stake in GAL
to 100%, buying out the other two shareholders of GAL - U.K. logistics company
Autologic Holdings PLC (ALG.LN) and TNT NV (00906.AE) - and gave up leading
talks after failing to make any progress.
Wallenius had made proposals to reschedule the bank and bond debt, but they
weren't accepted, and the company was stuck in a situation where it couldn't
secure a deal with Renault that would generate enough cash to service the
debt.
Now the agent bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, which had been coordinating the
bank group and involved in talks with all stakeholders, including the
company's administrator, has pulled out, people said.
Since December, John Lloyd has been appointed as chairman to succeed Harkan
Larson, who had been appointed by Wallenius, people familiar with the
situation said. A spokesperson for GAL was not immediately available for
comment.
GAL's bank debt has steadily traded down during the course of the past year
to a low of 80% of face value at the end of 2006. When RBS was offered 85% for
its debt it sold out and resigned from its coordinator role last week, one
person close to the situation said. The move leaves the bank group in disarray
with no obvious leader in talks, said the person. However, the move to
consolidate positions among senior creditors has provided support for the
price of the debt, which was Tuesday quoted at 84/88, said another person. The
price of GAL's EUR100 million of bonds has also moved down to be quoted at
38/43 per cent of face value.
Since December, RBS and a committee of bondholders had taken the lead in the
restructuring effort and began talks with other stakeholders on a creditor-led
restructuring plan. There was hope that such a proposal, if it could be agreed
by creditors, might convince the administrator of GAL to extend the Safeguard
period and give it more time to secure a rescue plan, another person involved
said.
A proposal for a debt restructuring driven by bondholders has yet to be
presented to the wider bank group, but RBS's exit casts doubt over whether the
banks will be able to recoup their initial investment and whether a debt
restructuring is achievable, said the person close to the situation.
While those involved believe Renault is likely to renew its contract, there
is still uncertainty about the terms on which Renault would be willing to
renew its contract, and if it will be enough to service the debt at holding
company GAL.
-By Anousha Sakoui, Dow Jones Newswires; 44 20 7842 9318,
[e-mail]

[catandcrow] 23/1/2007 15:51

Volume is pretty low.. no ideas on news front

[jimbim] 23/1/2007 15:50

What's going on? Anyone any idea?

[skyship] 23/1/2007 09:27

I see we're dropping back into last Autumn's 87-92 trading range. Watching for an entry point - perhaps the 200day MA @ 87p will provide the bounce, or at least support! Still haven't a view on the likely NAV here.

[jimbim] 28/12/2006 18:50

Good news just before NY.
Happy NY to all!!!

[catandcrow] 28/12/2006 18:44

Good news on sale of the Spanish site - should help to pay off some of the expensive debt - we could see it move up from these levels.

[cbr60000] 18/12/2006 23:26

So - what contracts are up for grabs / renewal next year - What volume was lost this year!! What current work is loss making, what current work is profitable?

Here lies the true story for ALG going forward. 2007 - Big year, plenty of opportunity for them to get it wrong!

[nickcduk] 07/12/2006 20:39

I think ALG has done well to ignore the GAL option falling through. It doesn't suprise me though. ALG looks like a takeover candidate for either private equity or a rival. They would probably dispose of all the foreign subsidiaries, rationalise UK costs, refinance the balance sheet and make a killing. It was rumoured a while back John Moulton was keen and with debt financing so cheap at the moment I wouldnt be suprised if he did come in with a bid.

[catandcrow] 07/12/2006 20:28

Well alg is holding up pretty well - frankly the management did pretty well to get some free cash off GAL. Still happy to hold

[jimbim] 04/12/2006 11:52

Looks like I was too pessimistic.:-)

[catandcrow] 04/12/2006 09:40

hard to say re NAV since they hold properties on the books at below true market value (so the annual report states).

[jimbim] 02/12/2006 15:45

I think that support will be found around 85p.Just IMO

[skyship] 02/12/2006 12:37

Intervention by GPG could hold the share price in the uptrend with a bounce off the £1 trendline; but it has to be considered more likely that they will let the stock find its own level.

The uptrend parallels are rather notional, so the chart perhaps suggests that support will be found around the light blue line in the 87p-95p range coinciding with the dark blue 200day MA passing through 90p.

Time for non-holders to research the true NAV here and plan for an entry point. Just what is the concensus view on that NAV (assuming nil value for GAL)?

[jimbim] 01/12/2006 17:38

I expect much more selling next week. I'm sure they knew market reaction on this rns..That why they published it just before end.IMO many PI didn't see that information before market close, some of them couldn't react on time.

[catandcrow] 01/12/2006 17:20

I agree - the GAL option lapsing will push share price down. Expect to see more selling Monday? Maybe if something good happens at GAL before Feb we'll get a boost.

[jimbim] 01/12/2006 16:54

Gal is an anchor for alg share price We may back to 90- p soon.Even they will get some extra cash from selling, Gal will push them down.Just IMO. What do you think?

[catandcrow] 01/12/2006 16:43

it suck but not unexpected... I'm hanging on - see they are selling a property in France though..