Autologic Share Discussion Threads

[catandcrow] 21/6/2007 21:20

Idle - have you sold out of your holding - do you think this is worth a short?

[idle dreamer] 16/6/2007 00:02

I heard a story today about ALG being about to lose another major distribution contract. However I should emphasise that it is merely hearsay and consequently it would be wrong of me to say too much like revealing the customer's identity. Suffice it to say that it is a Big Motor company Whose vehicles have become very popular in this country over last few years.

[idle dreamer] 14/6/2007 18:12

This article refers to the strike in 2005.



Apart from the idea that history repeats itself, the relevance to today's situation in my view is the comment about, ""The payroll is the largest item in the company's cost base, and its fixed costs are twice those of the industry average.

"But this is not primarily about wages, it is much more about overmanning, productivity, and highly restrictive practices reminiscent of 1970s' British industry," Ansa said."

[idle dreamer] 13/6/2007 17:19

In my opinion, wurfalot, this is a sell. ALG drivers are considered to be excessively militant and lazy. The spirit of Red Robbo is alive and well and ensconced in the vehicle distribution industry, particularly ALG.

ALG's biggest customer doesn't like it. They have been reviewing their distribution arrangements and talking to other suppliers. Therefore an educated guess is that new contracts will be awarded soon, probably July maybe August, and ALG will lose out. ALG may well keep some of the work, but expect them to lose a lot of it. Or maybe all of it. Expect ALG to hit back, sorry expect ALG's drivers to hit back, with disruptive industrial action. They control some of the compounds used and stocks may be cut off. There was a damaging strike by Ansa (the part of ALG that works for said customer) about two years ago. Expect this industrial action to do them more harm than good.

[wurfapunt] 13/6/2007 09:34

Ignore the last post - I was on the wrong page. Better informed now and probably more confused!! Buy, sell or hold?

[wurfapunt] 13/6/2007 09:28

Why has this thread died? Interesting company, restructured Board, offloaded all/most of the problems. What next? Anyone any info?

[idle dreamer] 11/6/2007 21:09

Pressure is mounting. The union is flexing its muscles. If you think that this will be good for ALG then go long. If you think that ALG's biggest customer will have the stomach to stand up to the union and protect its vehicle distribution by diversifying then go short.

Repeat, crunch time is July. By then I would expect some kind of result from the discussions that ALG's biggest customer has been having with other transport companies. Like the awarding of contracts. Of course it is perfectly possible that ALG will be reconfirmed as their predominant distribution supplier. But if the union believed that they wouldn't be flexing their muscles.

Sorry I can't reveal more. All hearsay and guesswork. But DYOR and read between the lines.

[idle dreamer] 05/6/2007 22:49

Ballot today. Not sure what the outcome was. Watch this space. Not a good time to be long.

[idle dreamer] 03/6/2007 00:30

The price is weakening it seems. I think July will be crunch time.

[cbr60000] 24/5/2007 18:49

ID,
Figured you dont embark on this scale of change if your a happy bunny!
CBR

[idle dreamer] 22/5/2007 23:37

Evening cbr. So you sold before my last post. Was there any particular factor(s) that made you sell? Of course it has to be said that the share price is very cheap in terms of price divided by sales, about 0.26, but there are reasons for that. Logistics is a very hard industry to make money in, look at Eddie Stobart, Richard Lawson and MCD, not to mention the Walon France and CAT problems that dragged ALG down.

[cbr60000] 22/5/2007 22:22

ID, Good summary thank you, I share your sentiment - have done so for a while now. I got out today !
CBR

[cbr60000] 18/5/2007 16:27

ID, What do you reckon the average cost per car Ford pay ALG for the movement within the UK?

[cbr60000] 18/5/2007 16:27

ID, What do you reckon the average cost per car Ford pay ALG for the movement within the UK?

[idle dreamer] 16/5/2007 13:01

So John Merry has given some shares to BEN and Wooden Spoon. Smart move. He'll get twice the brownie points now than he would if he waited till the shares halve in value. He might become President of BEN after he leaves ALG and eventually get a knighthood.

However I hope that BEN and Wooden Spoon have the sense to sell their ALG shares in the very near future. From the number of other transport companies invited to talk to Ford, I suppose it's now in the open that Ansa have been asked to retender for their distribution contract. One might surmise that the problems Ansa caused Ford with the strike in August 2005 do not help their chances of retaining this work. ALG's report does not break down revenue by customer, but we can assume that Ford are the largest customer ALG have.

By the way, if they do lose the Ford work you shouldn't expect them to issue a RNS about it. They didn't when they lost Nissan and 40% of Toyota. You'll have to read it here.

DYOR etc.

[idle dreamer] 04/5/2007 10:14

The word on the street is that Ford are talking to other transport companies. Also, some Land Rover work has been done by other companies recently. Anyone thinking of taking Bill Adlard's advice should be very cautious until the situation is clearer.

[idle dreamer] 02/5/2007 10:57

Tipped by Bill Adlard today. I wonder if he knows what's happening with the Ford contract. Presumably not.

[ianmckean] 30/4/2007 10:25

Someone posted somewhere that they lost 40% of Toyota distribution in the UK recently. Can anyone provide more information or links about this?

[idle dreamer] 24/4/2007 09:52

Not convinced the outlook is all that good. In the power of the unions, so I hear. They run this company not the "management".

[boystown] 12/4/2007 15:32

They look good to me, too.

There's a good write-up on today's results here:



Going forward, I guesstimate that ALG will be able to make around £10m ptp given the savings and optimistic outlook. There are debts of £30m, but then there's £35.7m in assets (which I understand to be undervalued and which include land holdings) and a further £8m in tangible assets / investments.

Surely, therefore, a more accurate valuation would be something around the £100m mark - i.e. around 164p?

[bazit] 12/4/2007 08:25

2006 Prelims out this morning. Overall they look ok, with some positive signs for the future.

[nickcduk] 24/3/2007 19:35

Thanks Sambessey. I had noticed previous Foolish comment posted on here but wasn't aware it had been tipped again.