Autologic Share Discussion Threads

[she-ra] 18/5/2006 15:55

Leopard1 - "The debt looks to be about 2.9x covered by EBITDA"-I think you are referring to interest payments on the debt being covered?
But I think you are wrong even with those figures.However its all changing for ALG.The world economy is about to slow meaning less cars sold globally but more importantly interest rates rising in the UK.Its a double whammy for ALG.
What im wondering is how come the banks screwed ALG so hard.i.e mezzanine financing and share options?Is there something ALG havent been telling us all?

[leopard1] 18/5/2006 15:46

Thats someone buying 5m as well. The debt looks to be about 2.9x covered by EBITDA - thats pretty comfortable. For the equity guys its is on a PE of 6x...

[twc1949] 18/5/2006 13:37

Over 5 million sold,
someone large getting rid at 60p.
Not looking goood.

[twc1949] 17/5/2006 15:55

Warranty

10% cheaper now.
The only profitable part of alg is walon uk.
If that is sold off, don't look good.

[jhan66] 17/5/2006 15:41

down 40% in a month
started down before the wider market and I'm nervous to know why. small volume though.

must be related to the last rns revolving credit notice. someone doesn't like gearing levels with rates expected to rise.

[warranty] 17/5/2006 06:33

No idea absolutespace but probably just pulled down with the overall market and maybe linked to the news about the Astra production at Ellesmere Port. Any chance they get to pull this down at the moment they will of course. Looks very very cheap now but then I thought that all the way under £2 so what do I know??

[absolutespace] 16/5/2006 16:57

anyone know what's happening?!

[vprep] 16/4/2006 18:31

nothing good by the looks of things,

selling Walon France because of huge losses,

CAT making huge losses,

Mr Merry chairman of Autologic standing down,

share price dropped from £2.60 to on 88p

going to be a while before price pulls back

[she-ra] 11/4/2006 13:05

MANZAREK - Sale and lease back would be no good.Short term yes it helps but long term P&L gets hit.

[manzarek] 09/4/2006 22:10

Leopard1 , a sale of the CAT stake to Walenius was strongly rumoured back at the start of 05. But until the Renault contract agreement is reached the value of CAT is effectively nil and since it didn't happen a year ago I would have thought it highly unlikely now. Therefore I don't think Autologic will be able to shift it until that uncertainty is removed. It is interesting to note that the mezzanine facility to which you refer expires at end of 07, 3 months before the termination date of the Renault contract. You are right they don't have to draw down on it in it's entirety but such is the state of things they will have to use it. The reason for the high cost is the revolving credit deal arrangement has first call over the assets so the deal is more expensive as a risk premium. KBC downgraded the stock on the back of it saying a 15m equity placing was likely. I'm not convinced of that but Merry did say they were investigating alternatives. I'm not sure about further lease backs. Maybe there is something they could sell? Perhaps they could ask CAT for the 4.8m or so back they loaned them last year? Doh. Big concern now is the sale of Walon Fr. Like so many other things is that the next wheel to fall off?

[leopard1] 09/4/2006 20:27

Surely ALG's partner in CAT, Walenius would be interested in all of ALG - it ties up the CAT situation neatly, but more important makes them market leader in auto logistics in the Uk

Also on the expensive £25m debt facility - it is just that a facility but don't they only draw down on it at peak periods - it is not permanently in use?

Also with maybe £10m of European property to be sale and leased backed that makes a big in road to refinancing the facility - on top of the £7m French proceeds due in shortly?

[warranty] 07/4/2006 16:22

Also possible to dispose of some assetts rather than a rights issue although fire sales are rarely a good thing longer term so additional shares may well be a preferable method of paying off debt quickly.

At least with a rights issue we share in the dilution if its a placing with banks and institutions of course we wont.

[alexandrews] 07/4/2006 09:16

Must confess that hadn't crossed my mind, but I guess it's a possibility.

[she-ra] 07/4/2006 09:03

Does that mean a rights issue?

[alexandrews] 07/4/2006 08:39

she-ra,

Thanks - hadn't spotted that. And for anyone else that missed it, here's the relevant paragraph:


Additionally, it is a condition of the Mezzanine Facility that the lenders under that facility are granted warrants to subscribe for ordinary shares in the Company. Warrants (the '2006 Warrants') representing 3% of the issued share capital of the Company will be issued to those lenders on drawdown of the Mezzanine Facility. Warrants (the '2007 Warrants') representing a further 3% of the issued share capital of the Company will be issued on 1st January 2007 if the Mezzanine Facility has not been repaid by then. The issue of any Warrants in excess of the Company's existing authority level will be subject to shareholder approval.


So warrants for 3% (1.315m shares?) to be issued when the facility is first drawn down, and a further 3% (1.3545m shares?) if the facility has not been repaid by 01/01/2007. There doesn't seem to be any indication of their exercise price, etc, but it doesn't look to be a huge dilution, especially if the facility is repaid by the end of the year. BTW, the financing document does also include the following:


Given the relatively high cost of the Mezzanine Facility, the Company intends to explore ways to refinance this facility.



Alex

[she-ra] 07/4/2006 08:16

AlexAndrews - It was in the refinancing announcement below:

[alexandrews] 06/4/2006 21:51

she-ra,

I didn't see any reference to warrants in the results regarding the financing - could you expand?

Cheers,

Alex

[she-ra] 06/4/2006 19:24

Mezzanine financing and warrants suggests this company had little room for manoeuvre.Basically the banks are getting free shares.We're getting a company that is distressingly indebted and ultimately dilution.

[warranty] 06/4/2006 19:21

Very messy Alex which is why the share price is at this price compared to £6 a few years ago. No sign of a quick turnaround I accept, but with their size and importance to the industry things can only get better eventually and when that happens up will go the share price

Mine are in an ISA and I will add when they've settled a bit, not keen on falling knives!! Think longer term with ALG and you'll be a winner I have no doubt.

[alexandrews] 06/4/2006 09:59

Having read the results, my initial reaction is MESSY...

[warranty] 05/4/2006 17:18

I don't think its in anticipation of bad news so much jhann66 as the withdrawal of the dividend and the low prospect of any good news tomorrow.

Whatever, if you're looking at this longer term the shares are a steal right now and probably the best time there's ever been to buy, particularly if they go lower still which it looks like they may.

If a VC or two aren't looking at ALG at this level I'd be absolutely amazed so expect some T/O talk before too long.

[jhan66] 05/4/2006 16:36

results tomorrow. must be some bad news judging by these drops, but on low volume at least.

[warranty] 04/4/2006 22:26

Agree Snagsby, probably little to be positive about currently but it may well give us a very good buying opportunity on any significant fall.