Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 23/10/2016 20:41

Very interesting follow up article on III by SH today, on the worlds largest south American Copper producers being hit by cut backs, union strikes, new government legislation to tighten up mining safety, and the resulting cutbacks on mining investment with Copper at $2.10, the older mines reaching cut off grade, and new projects now shelved until 2020/2024... sooner or later this has to filter through to the supply side, and be the driver for a rebound of the price of the Copper metal.

The companies and analysts collective forecasts for a supply deficit emerging from 2017/2018 looks to be getting played out.

Although we are trundling along at here at ATYM @ B/E and a maiden profit expected in Q4, we are perfectly positioned to capitalise on this as soon as the price turns, fully scaled up by Xmas, if Copper hits it's $3.00 forecast we will be making $100M a year pre tax profit.

The Astor case looming is effecting the share price undoubtedly, and as Lango points out, it's not going to help the share price much if the judgement goes against us, but with expected profits outlined in the new 43-101 we can deal with it comfortably, worst case it will be on drip over 6/7 years, best case we win, and the share price takes off same day..!

[frogkid] 20/10/2016 08:54

I have been watching from the sidelines. Whilst this is a Cu play there is also the Astor case which as Lang says will have a material effect on the share price If ATYM lose then the share price will get hammered. If they win then there should be a recovery. The rouble is that the downside is always greater then the upside in these cases. I am avoiding for now as I am not a gambler. I might be tempted in with a 6 in front of the sp!

[come on] 20/10/2016 07:57

I hope so Charlie as if this goes against us the share price imo will take another hammering.

[charlieeee] 19/10/2016 22:48

Lango

The effect cannot be calculated at this point in time.

If copper shot up to $2.40/2.50, even an unfavorable out come would be small beer.

At current levels, it clearly would have a greater impact on marginal profitability/loss.

I struggle to see how we could possibly have triggered the payments: courts are really pedantic when it comes to terminology and rightly or wrongly, I still see this action as a precursor to a PI claim, suing the lawyers.

C

[langostino] 19/10/2016 21:19

Priced in. Ha!
What is priced in is the fact of a dispute and not how it is resolved. Do you seriously think the rns announcing the verdict/settlement of this case will not result in one of the most significant price moves of recent times - up or down? That is not 'priced in' in my book.

[rich1e] 19/10/2016 19:41

I think that the recent price action says, if you want to buy, you’d be better off waiting until tomorrow when the price is lower. If you really want to buy, you’ll have to pay over the odds and the price you can sell for will be a good few pence lower.


The gap up on news last week, the buyers, the spread, the retrace isn’t new.

I said on 18th August

“After all the 'selling' you'd think that the mm's would be giving stock away. Five buys and the actual asking price goes up 4p”


And on the 19th

“Eight sells now, a few more sells on Monday, and the bid and ask will be lowered. Everyone will be waiting for that lower entry and normal service will be resumed. Someone is maybe 60k shares better off, probably similar scenario to the 300k traded at the back end of July.”


This has happened a few times, so in my view the MM’s are keeping the price in this range for a reason. Seller, buyer who knows? But when the buyers appear they appear to get a rough deal for a stock, which on the face of things, is being sold off.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/10/2016 19:13

Acamas, the MM's will run as flat a book as possible, so they don't get caught with their pants down, they leave that bit to us..!

150K traded today, a good few more than normal, and biased on the sell side I suspect.

I can only think that as a pure Copper play now, we are getting pulled up/down with the Copper price, and that has gone $2.20 to $2.10 (4%), and with our gearing to it of 5:1, there's our geared share price -20% reduction.., but hopefully it will return to it's uptrend, and we can see the results soon..

[waterloo01] 19/10/2016 19:11

If you look at the presentation the comparisons with other mines is noteworthy and gives an idea of comparative values. Most have high debt. Langostino I disagree about the Astor effect. It took £25m off the market cap at the time, so it's in the price. Further even if we 'lose' the current terms that they want to in-force are repayment over a period of 6 years (if I recall) so manageable within cash flows around this copper price.

[acamas] 19/10/2016 18:40

Rich1e,

My thinking was/is the MM's have stock on their books they wish to shift and the only way to get trade moving is to drop the price. Unless somebody is shorting the price to accumulate a larger stake. Or even a combination of both.

One things for sure currently there is no momentum behind this share right now. It is often surprising how long it takes the share price to react to improved company performance

[langostino] 19/10/2016 17:34

The Astor case an annoyance. Ha!
While we wait for the world economy to revive and renewed demand for copper to make Atalaya an interesting investment proposition again the Astor result is the only foreseeable catalyst for share price reaction. Being on the wrong side of the call for smashing below 60p or consolidating above 100p ranks above annoying in my book.

[rich1e] 19/10/2016 17:11

Acamas, I’m not sure that I agree. “the MM's have to keep dropping the price to attempt to attract buyers”.

On news last week, the share price was around 85p prior announcement. First trade of the day 92p with an 8% spread. Now the news must have been adjudged to be good hence the rise and the buyers, compare with Kefi yesterday which did the opposite. But predictably buying interest dried up fairly quickly.

I would think that if they had wanted the buyers they would walk the share price up until the buying stopped; but it wasn’t forced to stop. There will probably be buyers at over a pound when there are none at the current levels. Its about momentum and sentiment and the price action after news killed the momentum and the subsequent drop killed the sentiment.

Why? I haven’t a clue, but despite the current share price there were a couple of things today that made me think that the tide might be about to turn. We will see.

[tedoby2] 19/10/2016 15:38

Thanks for letting us know about the new presentation SBT.

As we move into the new year at nameplate I believe we'll see a realisation that copper will be moving towards deficit.

The AISC's of $2/lb are there as a target to be beaten and Alberto and his team will enjoy the challenge I'm sure.

The agreed discounts amount to 2% to 3% but only on 10% of production and " blending" the ore across the W/E axis in the early years should ensure we produce around 100m lbs of copper annualised if not a tad more.

Any increase in the price of Ag will do us now harm and the credit should easily offset the discount for penalties at the smelter as we can see in the new NI 43-101.

Also in the report the company has headroom for more offtake agreements should they be needed and a repeat of the agreement with Transamine to call upon if required.

The Astor case is an annoyance but it's a situation that's quantifiable within reason given it's about whether the Deferred Settlement payment profile should have started simply on the last permit or not. Nothing more and it's worth remembering that both parties can seek leave to appeal to the SC if they wish. I believe we could see that Astor's also running a concurrent claim against their advisers on the day.

AIMHO & GLA

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/10/2016 15:17

I'm surprised to see we've slipped into the low 80's and a 79p on the bid today.., but as a pure copper play now, we need to make some money and report we are cash positive.., if investors are looking for a yield there are better options than ATYM right now.., but that will come for us over time at 2.50/2.75/3.00 copper..., it's not very attractive at scratch is it with a court case looming...

[waterloo01] 19/10/2016 15:17

Good to see the C1-C3 costs. I understand they hope to improve on these. One of the best ways would be announce some better grades from the 20,000+ holes already drilled.

Outside of that, it's all down to the copper price. Good to see they are at least profitable around these levels.

Oh, some director buys wouldn't go amiss.

[acamas] 19/10/2016 15:02

LLB,

I did suggest this would drop into the 70p range a fortnight ago. For once it is not nice to be correct. The question now is how much lower is the gutter price? Judging by all the red recently this share is friendless in the current market and the MM's have to keep dropping the price to attempt to attract buyers. Who in turn seem disinterested above 80p. So at what level will the buyers enter?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/10/2016 14:55

Nice to see confirmation in the new presentation that cash B/E is $2.00/lb of payable Copper, so $2.07 so pre discounts which means we are cash positive now..., just ...What a milestone that is, after all that we've been through...Finally in production, scaled up and cash generative...Why sell now..., it's all down to Copper which will dictate how well we do...

[shortarm] 19/10/2016 13:55

That drop prompted a few buyers!

[chelsea101] 19/10/2016 10:48

Thanks SBT. Is the presentation on the Atalaya website?

[superbobtaylor] 19/10/2016 09:08

New presentation out. "Sustaining cost" (which I presume is the same as breakeven) given at $2.00 / lb.

SBT

[reba] 14/10/2016 11:59

Here we go again, down down down

[manfrom] 14/10/2016 11:13

Most likely see a circa 20,000 buy later - if the trend continues?

[reba] 14/10/2016 09:54

Looks as though the pillocks moved up to selling 6000 at a time now

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/10/2016 15:02

Bloomberg ran an article this morning on how the DJ/S&P indexes were so over inflated, they are due a big correction.., are they right..? pumped up on zero interest rates, and QE, it's a hard point to argue against, the FTSE has retraced off its 7100+ high, is this the start of the next crash/crisis we are looking at after an 8 year gap, it's pretty much on schedule...?

The BoE has bought £1BN of corporate bonds this month as the majors look to prop up their balance sheets as UK business recedes..?

A rate rise across the pond from the Fed before Xmas more likely now..?

Deutsche Bank aren't in any trouble at all really, as they freeze on all new jobs and Merkel has already said 'you're on your own' ..!

Some weak data coming out of China, but is this seasonal..?

How does all of this effect metals / Copper...?