Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[charlieeee] 30/10/2016 20:18

Well done husbod: I wasn't following the board very carefully and did not see the "late entries": so, 2 cracking tips last week following on from your initial query.

[husbod] 30/10/2016 17:57

Charlieeee: modesty prevents me from mentioning that my tip AUR beat 20% on Friday.

[trafid] 29/10/2016 16:46

Confident Atalaya will have there day on 3oth jan


WIN,WIN,WIN

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/10/2016 16:27

Sharp practice is a game Trafigura are well known for Charlieee, but with $53M to play for, you would have to take it to court, the fact is we did not use senior (bank) debt to finance the project..., we used equity, I don't see how that can be misinterpreted ..?

It's a win/win for the company, worst case we have to do what the original agreement says, if Astor lose, they will lodge a negligence claim against their lawyers/advisors..?

It will go to appeal either way, I can't see it being resolved 1st time round in Jan..?

[charlieeee] 29/10/2016 14:25

You post

"But now it is 81 for T20 and 80.099 for T2...

That suggests the MMs see the price rising over the next month"

T20 is nothing to do with "futures": T2s and T20s are both purchased as per the contract date and time on the contract note.

Pure and simple, a T20 is additional time to the settlement date for which privilege you sometimes have to pay: with my broker, it generally makes no difference to the quote.

So, CuFS2, your latest entry, SULA, left the starting gate at a cracking pace and seems to be heading the field at 20% up on Friday. Good grades: I wish I had jumped straight in before doing the research!

In truth, I rarely go for high risk and I doubt that I would hold ATYM, if I did not have such confidence in the world class management. Technically and from a business point of view, not a foot put wrong and whatever the ethics of the Astor situation, one has to admire the cool effrontery of the Traf. mindset: a planned heist of $50m, just from a careful reading of a legal agreement.

[waterloo01] 29/10/2016 12:06

No offence to those that have sold, but stale bulls selling is a classic contraindication and often marks a bottom, especially with the company about to go cash positive and with the forward lending of offtakes, funded without recourse to shareholders or dilution.

I bought a few more last week (maybe a contraindication in itself!)

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/10/2016 11:02

Strong week for Copper spiking to $2.195/lb, next stop the $2.20 barrier we've bounced off 3 times now.

Next news is the Q3 financials and find out how close to B/E we got in the ramp up phase, but we are cash positive at this Copper price with payable Copper $2.09..

Currently running at 9.0MTPA, and expected to hit 9.5 sometime in Q4, about now.., great timing to be selling into a rising Copper price, and what with all the news coming out of South America on dropping production levels, the supply/demand jigsaw is coming together nicely for us..

[rich1e] 28/10/2016 17:58

Cheers guys, just a few ideas, as people have asked for alternatives. If copper were to rise 30% over the next 3 years, you’re up 60%, ignoring any compounding effect, a straightforward 20% a year. Similarly an equity bear market 3 years, 40% (80%) up.

Buy, hold and forget until you’re showing a good return (bearing in mind the leveraging can lead to anguish whilst things are going against you), with the biggest risk that the investment vehicles themselves go t!ts up.

[canaries2] 28/10/2016 17:38

Rich1e,
Agree with all those trades proposed. Silver may dip briefly when Clinton gets elected, But I,m long silver from current levels and slightly above. FTSE yes will show profit at some stage. Oil deffo if it gets that low.

Re Copper think it will go lower from current levels so maybe phase in, same with Silver.

my portfolio is max % in Silver. Short FTSE. Currently none in Copper (sold my long around 2.20.) was looking for 2.07 to get back in, still waiting I may have missed the boat, who knows..

[rougepierre] 28/10/2016 17:23

Copper up 1.6% today and 4.6% in the last four days...

LME copper stocks down 12% in the last month and Chinese demand is rising...

We're generating clear cashflow at $2.19...

[rougepierre] 28/10/2016 17:14

Can't fault those positions Richie...

Might be a tad early for silver but I'm still convinced it is a great long term bet!

Holding off buying back my silver and goldies for the time being; invested more here pro the...

[rich1e] 28/10/2016 17:05

Some investment ideas free from message board machinations,

Anticipating medium term price directions and ignoring analyst short term predictions. Looking at using as part of a balanced portfolio, on a buy and hold for a good return basis, what about? long copper x2 LCOP (from current levels), long silver x2 LSIL (from current levels), Short FTSE 100 x2 SUK2 (at above 7000) and long oil x2 LOIL (at sub $40).

Thoughts anyone?

[husbod] 28/10/2016 15:36

Typo there Cu - "years" not "months"

[rougepierre] 28/10/2016 15:30

And surely after the close period ends the FD at least will buy shares...?

Thin market?

4 times in the last year these have spiked...

69.50 to 107.80 in December (55%)

86.40 to 108.30 in February (25%)

97.30 to 117.30 in May (21%) and...

77.5 to 92.5 in Sept (20%)

When they move, they move and once we are generating steady positive cashflows they aint going down unless the whole market sentiment changes...

Iron ore is up 46% YTD...

Suppose that happened to copper....

Hold tight!

[cufes2] 28/10/2016 15:24

I doubt the MMS are interested in or have a view about the share price in 2 days let alone 20 days and it's a negligible difference in price anyway . . . No offence but people have been peddling the old you'll be sorry you sold line for months in anticipation of the next big news . . .

[rougepierre] 28/10/2016 15:13

Meanwhile copper over $2.18...has risen steadily this week...

And now this is interesting...

When I bought my latest 5,000 the T20 price was the same as the T2 price...

But now it is 81 for T20 and 80.099 for T2...

That suggests the MMs see the price rising over the next month...which of course probably includes the Q3 financials, which will surely report that we have had positive cashflow...

If it shows positive EBITDA as well...watch out those who are holding off...

GLA

AIMHO as usual...

[rougepierre] 28/10/2016 15:08

So that's three of you selling now...hardly helping the share price ..?

What will you do if the price spikes..? Jump back in at a significantly higher level than you sold...?

I know I'm more bullish than most, but if frog started buying and the rest of you stopped selling, don't you think the price would rise...?

Self-fulfilling prophesy going on here methinks...

Keep talking it down...keep focusing on Astor...keep selling...no wonder the share price isn't rising...?

BTW the Ask is now 81p at Market Size of 2500...

A dangerous game this...waiting to buy back in...

AIMHO as usual...

[bigbaddaz] 28/10/2016 13:57

My personal belief is the upcoming Astor case is preventing our share price from rising.

We know the case will not be heard in court until January.

I am therefore happy to sell, even at this historic low price, as I have time on my side to re buy the shares I have sold, should I decide to pre court case.

I have not sold all of my holding, but greatly reduced here, which I feel more comfortable about with the Astor situation and outcome unknown.

[frogkid] 28/10/2016 13:29

you are correct LLB, the big drop was after the Astor debacle. Honestly, I dont know if it is in the price or not. It is rather alot of money and I wish they had just played with a straight bat

All the best

Frog

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 28/10/2016 13:14

It's the right thing to do to consider the Astor case if you're sat on the side lines now, but the share price has only gone down since the BOD decided to challenge the terms of the agreement, most likely through Trafigura's advice and direction, I would like to think that todays share price has this built into it at the current level. We did not use senior debt, we used equity, so we are already diluted to the same value as if we had the bank debt used in the valuation..?

Absolute worst case outcome is we have to stick to the original agreement, which isn't so bad anyhow, $53M on drip over 6 or 7 years out of profits.

It's not a show stopper, deal breaker, and it won't derail the project, you could call it an operating cost/overhead.

Outside of this final obstacle, things are going very well indeed, scaled up to max capacity now and selling into a rising Copper price, if you look at the YTD Copper price or the 5 year chart, we are still in an uptrend.. $2.175/lb today.

We have 4 broker notes collectively saying a sensible share price is £2.00..

It is hugely frustrating, watching so many other companies share price tear away tho', GLEN/KAZ just for starters, the majors are struggling along with $BN's of debt, BLT for example, and we are debt free, this just has to be advantageous in a valuation..?

[husbod] 28/10/2016 12:56

You're like the proverbial alco froggie - far too much EMED but having broken the habit yer can't help that desire.

Bet you're back in soon.

Nearly bought some more this morning but lay down and let the feeling pass. Topped up on AUR instead plus some ACP

[frogkid] 28/10/2016 12:49

Hi Daz, I am watching this but Astor is my big concern and probably the only reason I have not jumped back in at what could be a bargain price.

Good luck

Frog

[bigbaddaz] 28/10/2016 12:42

Waterloo,in my opinion people shouldn't comment on a company and their shares unless they at least understand a little about that company.

Clearly, from the comment you have made, you do not know anything about HNR !

And in answer to your question, no not selling any more here today as the CU price has risen nicely the past couple of days, although as of yet that hasn't been reflected in our share price

[jbravo2] 28/10/2016 09:25

I've not posted here since 2012 I think. I bailed out after the election results in 2012. Have followed occasionally due to some kind of fondness but thankfully I've stayed away. Just back to add to the list for those interested.

If people want to do some reading then they could do worse than read on AAZ.
I've been in there for a few years and seen the down slide, thankfully now we've come out the other side and there is much more to come over the next 2 years.
It's £30m mkt cap with revenue of over $90m this year, will clear $45m before capex.

The rest I'll leave to you!

Good luck all.

[waterloo01] 28/10/2016 09:01

Selling a few more to go into HNR? Frying pan and fire come to mind.