Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 27/1/2017 09:12

How on earth do you think level 2 data is going to help at all with such an unpredictable share ? and for LTBH, its about picking what you think is a reasonable price based on the business prospects. You can't get that spot-on anyway.

[first_things] 27/1/2017 09:03

Anybody go the level 2 data on this sale as I'm thinking about topping up?

[topvest] 26/1/2017 18:36

I'm surprised that there was no comment on the profitable JV activities. Sounds like there may be some good news here soon and diversification away from government delay.

[greedfear] 26/1/2017 16:57

The frustrating part is that you just KNOW you're right investing in this growth market at a low price. It has just taken SO much time for any progress. And real progress is being delayed, and delayed, and delayed. Can't blame people for jumping ship as this really asks for patience and a lot of that. I've had patience here and I haven't been rewarded for that thus far. Better days!

[yump] 26/1/2017 16:34

goliard

Not sure that's entirely fair. They flagged the cap ages ago and that it might be an issue. The news has been out and about that the government were still working it out.

ASH are just in a market where they don't have control over timing - as with most companies that deal directly or indirectly with government. Just as they were looking promising, the gov. threw another obstacle in the way.

These builds have to happen one way or another, or we are all going to have a big problem, whether invested or not. Its just very frustrating waiting !

[greedfear] 26/1/2017 16:25

7-8p for the next (how many?) months.
It's a long way to the 30p I've paid initially (expecting a 3p dividend that they cancelled immediatly after my buy [In hindsight, that was an omen]).

[greedfear] 26/1/2017 16:22

Well, one thing is for sure, ASH never disappoints in disappointing you.

[nick rubens] 26/1/2017 13:47

nesty "The trouble with AIM at the moment people can't hold for more then 5 mins."

I know what you mean but there is a reason why investors don't want to own AIM listed companies for more than a day or two and that reason is valid.

As for this company, the results show little profitibility. If they grow profits and pay dividends then the shares will go up, irrespective of who wants to hold for 5 minutes or so.

This one was being bought ahead of results, probably in a genuine expectation of something good, which didn't come, hence the share price fall as they all bail again and look elsewhere.

[goliard] 26/1/2017 13:05

Has there ever been a set of results where ASH did not announce a delay to their pipeline? The directors clearly do not want to acknowledge the reality of the current market. Whether the market is fair or not is sadly irrelevant.

[irenekent] 26/1/2017 11:52

What the government don't seem to realise is that this is probably the best company building these sorts of scheme. If ASH goes to the wall who has the expertise and experience to replace them? Fortunately I do think the tide is turning and look forward to a significant improvement in the next couple of years.

[nesty1760] 26/1/2017 10:46

I thought the RNS was ok. The trouble with AIM at the moment people can't hold for more then 5 mins. No doubt many sold to chase the likes of URU and AST etc.

This is a good company going forward. The BOD sems to have a handle on things and with the sector ASH is in, something has to be done by the Government sooner or later.

[first_things] 26/1/2017 10:20

Looks like a tree shake from the market makers?

I think we could end the day in positive territory!

Market expectations are for a profit of £1,500,000 which if achieved could give a fair value of 26p per share (2.6p earning on a PE of 10).

This is possible(although not guaranteed) if they close the three schemes in their extra Care pipeline. If and when this is understood by the market we could see some significant gains.


"We currently believe that three schemes in our Extra Care pipeline will be able to reach contract before our year end thereby qualifying for revenue recognition, although they all still require Local Authority and partner board final approvals."

[irenekent] 26/1/2017 09:44

At the top of the loser board. Can you believe it?

[greedfear] 26/1/2017 09:39

A very much undeserved beating of the share price. Impatience.

[topvest] 26/1/2017 08:58

Well not bad results. Finance costs are way too high, but at least they mean avoiding a dilutive share issue while the company remains in transition. Trouble is we always seem to be a year away from unlocking the portfolio. Nevertheless, when it does eventually happen things will be much more positive. All credit to mangement for keeping the show on the road. Government need to sort this mess out as social care is becoming a crisis area.

[yump] 26/1/2017 08:56

I think a few bought in on the chance of a good update, whereas its a 'wait' update, but this isn't a bad top up price - see where it settles and then decide...

Its a shame that amongst all the complications there's only one group of people who really suffer the consequences.

Positively there does seem to be an increasing emphasis on care within government, although that isn't directly relevant here it might help to push things a little.

[first_things] 26/1/2017 08:51

The business is set to "grow again in the near future"
The board consider that the opportunities for Ashley House are "very strong"
Business is well placed to grow again in "the near future"


"We currently believe that three schemes in our Extra Care pipeline will be able to reach contract before our year end thereby qualifying for revenue recognition, although they all still require Local Authority and partner board final approvals."

"We continue to broaden the outlook of the business and once this is achieved and the funding of supported housing is resolved as expected, the Board considers that the opportunities for Ashley House are very strong."

"The Board is pleased that the business remains profitable and, whilst there are still challenges to overcome considers the business is well placed to grow again in the near future."

[yump] 26/1/2017 07:50

Looks like something is going to be sorted out this year and until then the implications won't be known. As the ball will then be with LA's ? - the results might be a bit random. So as often, patience until the end of 2017 I think, although at least the share price isn't exactly demanding and ASH are obviously getting some possibilities through alternative funding.

Government never seems to be able to leave anything alone for long and that goes for the boom times as well. I still keep thinking about those 15 years of boom under Blair, when they introduced more management and more daft targets into the NHS and failed to invest in infrastructure as we can now see from the roads falling apart on a daily basis. I'm not sure anything at all improved during that period apart from the salaries of BOD's.

[cockerhoop] 25/1/2017 21:48

Yump, Norbert,

I did speak to Anthony Walters a couple of weeks ago primarily to get further information on the £11.5m Ashley House that had been granted in the governments affordable housing scheme which will fund 5 further projects totaling 331 homes. We did discuss the housing benefit cap and whilst the government 'kicking the can down' the road to 2019 demonstrates they accept a solution has to be found for Supported and Sheltered Housing that in itself is not going to provide the guarantees necessary for the future funding of 25 year projects.

[nesty1760] 25/1/2017 21:00

Have a holding in here. Hoping the results are positive.
SP might move quickly, not many shares in issue here.

[norbert colon] 25/1/2017 20:44

Yump - you raise the $64000 question and unfortunately this is an unknown although hopefully the Board will help clarify the situation tomorrow.Govt and local govt have a commitment to social housing but it all now comes down to how each LA spends their money. The 40% appreciation in the company valuation this week would imply the results tomorrow should bring positive news but will have to wait and see....

[yump] 25/1/2017 09:07

I've been trying to get a grip on the issue with the LHA rental cap, which was mentioned in the finals, but which hasn't been since to my knowledge.

In June, from the statement:

"It is now clear that the Government believes that the LHA rental cap does not work for Sheltered and Supported Housing and is seeking a resolution to this issue. Extensive industry consultations are in progress and a positive solution is currently expected this autumn. Naturally, this has caused delays in pushing forward some of the Extra Care pipeline and may impact on our half year results.

...which was slightly worrying

However, from September (from this:

What about supported and sheltered housing?

In September 2016 the Government announced details of its proposal for the future funding of supported housing. The Government proposes to restrict benefit for all tenants and residents living in supported and sheltered housing to the LHA rate from 2019. (that's a year later than originally).

At the same time money will be transferred to local authorities to allow them to fund the additional costs of supported and sheltered housing where these are above the LHA level. (I think details are still being ironed out).

I think that last bit could be a big positive, as it doesn't threaten the returns to investors, by leaving what looked like a vacuum between the LHA allowance and the rental cost.

[topvest] 24/1/2017 18:53

Bodes well for the imminent interim. Still scope for this to be a multi-bigger IF they can move through their pipeline. Excellent socially responsible product.