Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[first_things] 12/6/2017 10:20

Gavin Barwell is back and has got a promotion as "Downing Street Chief of Staff".

I also noticed that "Residential Secure Income is planning to raise up to £300m from investors to acquire new social housing properties".

I think when the dust from the election settles things will move quickly and now social housing is a key issue.

[first_things] 09/6/2017 10:33

I noticed that Tory Housing Minister Gavin Barwell as lost his seat as well!

David Orr, chief executive of the National Housing Federation, said: “A hung parliament still has to find a way to govern. High on the list of priorities must be a continued focus on building and regenerating the homes we need and looking again at the way welfare reform measures like the Local Housing Allowance cap are making that more difficult. We also need early progress on secure funding for supported housing – this is vital to delivering effective social care.”

Watching with interest...............

Hopefully we can get some positive development on modular house building whilst this issue gets resolved. If these two areas of the business go well we could have a very valuable business.

[cockerhoop] 09/6/2017 10:08

Unfortunately the solution is likely to be delayed in the short term whilst higher priority stuff is resolved (or not!) imo.

[first_things] 09/6/2017 10:02

Anybody got a view on how the election result will impact the Extra Care Housing business of Ashley House?

[whites123] 07/6/2017 07:01

Modular Builds and Social Care housing go hand in hand, and finally the political parties are realising this.
With each party promising increased funding and a focus on Modular builds, the future is looking very bright indeed.

hxxp://www.falmouthpacket.co.uk/news/fpfalmouth/15330856.Don_t_know_who_to_vote_for_in_Truro_and_Falmouth__This_might_help/



hxxp://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/labour-v-tory-v-lib-13100596

And the list goes on and on and on.....

[mustau] 07/6/2017 00:26

Too much bureaucracy at local level for modular housing, the departments involved is a who's who from housing, asset management, private sector, architects, planning and then there's consultation with the local community and of course cabinet approval required.
In my opinion Most elected members will object as "not in my back door" unless central government force it or there is some form of permitted development for such schemes.
A great way to ease the crisis especially in London, I can see Rsl's adopting this for their new builds but LA's?

[first_things] 06/6/2017 16:18

Bit of a tick up in volume
Any positive updates on the new modular business and government policy after the election could be the catalyst for a re-rating.

[first_things] 06/6/2017 08:31

Can prefab homes solve UK's housing crisis?

[mustau] 06/6/2017 07:35

Think it's only London boroughs that would really need modular housing, question is where's the land to build?

[whites123] 06/6/2017 07:23

A VERY REAL AND LIKELY MULTIBAGGING OPPORTUNITY.

ASH: ASHLEY HOUSE.
M/C £4.6 Million.

Well worthwhile reading through some of the historic figures and the projected figures.

Because its in oversold territory the stock is very tightly held. Often having to go negotiated just to acquire small amounts < £10,000

Update due soon.

F1 Modular is the ONLY company to have been awarded all 8 regions of the UK for delivery of offsite Modular builds.

The figures talked about are huge, and it is a growth industry whereby ASH (F1 Modular) benefit from first mover advantage.

ASH (F1 Modular) have discussed and engaged councils whereby they have presented schemes whereby a council commits to 400 new builds, and ASH (F1 Modular) will build a local construction (Factory) outlet. Employing local people and benefitting the community.

F1 Modular (ASH) have been set target to produce £4,000,000 profit Minimum withoin 3 years. ASH is a profitable business prior to the F1 acquisition.
If the profit target is met that alone will equate to the Market cap of the whole company.
You dont need to be a rocket scientist to see there is a clear and very real potential to multibag here. 40p, 50p, 60p would be very cheap. At 8p its like daylight robbery.

This from the F1 Frontpage.

hxxp://www.f1modular.co.uk/vision/

Our Regional Hubs Plan

The new LHC framework provides a unique opportunity for the public sector to directly procure modular offsite housing via a fully audited framework. The market potential is huge – running into the billions. Volumetric housing supply at only 5% of the currently envisaged annual UK requirement would be circa 10,000 units annually, and represent a potential factory value circa £500 million.

• It is estimated that there is an annual demand for around 250,000 affordable houses
• Most councils need to provide at least 1,000 homes
• A typical scheme to deliver 1,000 homes will cost at least £100 Million – Turnkey at an average of £100,000/house
• A factory capable of manufacturing 250 – 400 homes a year would employ 80 – 100 local people. This would create a business hub for the benefit of the whole community
• The supply chain would be kept local or would be attracted into the area creating more jobs and occupy empty factories/retail units
• The housing would be delivered faster – weeks rather than months
• Environmental impact is much lower
• Housing quality is much higher owing to ISO900 controlled factory conditions
• Homes are constructed using better construction materials and methods
• Energy costs are lower due to more efficient thermal properties
• We deliver a fabric first code 4 home for the cost of a traditionally built code 3 home
• More people employed means more taxes. More homes mean more council tax
• The funds used for the scheme can be kept within the local community

[whites123] 06/6/2017 06:43

What kind of rerating are we anticipating? :-)

F1 Modular is the ONLY company to have been awarded all 8 regions of the UK for delivery of offsite Modular builds.

The figures talked about are huge, and it is a growth industry whereby ASH (F1 Modular) benefit from first mover advantage.

ASH (F1 Modular) have discussed and engaged councils whereby they have presented schemes whereby a council commits to 400 new builds, and ASH (F1 Modular) will build a local construction (Factory) outlet. Employing local people and benefitting the community.

F1 Modular (ASH) have been set target to produce £4,000,000 profit Minimum withoin 3 years. ASH is a profitable business prior to the F1 acquisition.
If the profit target is met that alone will equate to the Market cap of the whole company.
You dont need to be a rocket scientist to see there is a clear and very real potential to multibag here. 40p, 50p, 60p would be very cheap. At 8p its like daylight robbery.

This from the F1 Frontpage.

hxxp://www.f1modular.co.uk/vision/

Our Regional Hubs Plan

The new LHC framework provides a unique opportunity for the public sector to directly procure modular offsite housing via a fully audited framework. The market potential is huge – running into the billions. Volumetric housing supply at only 5% of the currently envisaged annual UK requirement would be circa 10,000 units annually, and represent a potential factory value circa £500 million.

• It is estimated that there is an annual demand for around 250,000 affordable houses
• Most councils need to provide at least 1,000 homes
• A typical scheme to deliver 1,000 homes will cost at least £100 Million – Turnkey at an average of £100,000/house
• A factory capable of manufacturing 250 – 400 homes a year would employ 80 – 100 local people. This would create a business hub for the benefit of the whole community
• The supply chain would be kept local or would be attracted into the area creating more jobs and occupy empty factories/retail units
• The housing would be delivered faster – weeks rather than months
• Environmental impact is much lower
• Housing quality is much higher owing to ISO900 controlled factory conditions
• Homes are constructed using better construction materials and methods
• Energy costs are lower due to more efficient thermal properties
• We deliver a fabric first code 4 home for the cost of a traditionally built code 3 home
• More people employed means more taxes. More homes mean more council tax
• The funds used for the scheme can be kept within the local community

[whites123] 05/6/2017 07:19

The below is released by L&G. Nothing to do with Ashley House?
Au Contraire? Ashley House through its 76% holding of F1 Modular already has capability tp produce tried tested and proven modular homes.
Having worked with L&G before they have history.
Recent interview with ASH even suggested that councils ordering 400 or more homes would also benefit the local industry as ASH would consider building manufacturing plants in the areas.
I fully believe that majority of folk are overlooking the potential.
ASH was a viable business before (Just waiting all the time on government decisions) now they have joined the Modular race they have first mover advantage in what is looking to be a booming industry.

DYOR etc etc...

Here is a link worth reading also:
hxxp://www.ashleyhouseplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/A-property-developer-with-a-conscience_250517.pdf

Rolls Royce director will head up firm’s bid to meet housing shortfall

Legal & General (L&G) has hired Rosie Toogood as chief executive of its modular housing business.

The firm has hired Toogood from Rolls Royce to lead the company’s modular housing into its “crucial”; delivery stage. She is due to start work at L&G later this month.

L&G said it planned to deliver 3,500 flatpack homes a year from a Yorkshire factory, in a bid to tackle the UK’s housing crisis.

A chartered accountant, Toogood is currently business development director for Rolls Royce’s Civil Aerospace business. She was previously executive vice president of the Compressors organisation and served for eight years as a non-executive board member of Derwent Housing Association. She holds an MBA in Strategy & Procurement.

“Rosie is joining the business at an exceptionally exciting time,” said L&G chief executive Nigel Wilson.

“Almost every other industry has seen radical innovation brought about by digital technology advancements, and yet we continue to build houses the same way that the Victorians did.

“We need more entrants to the sector, new technologies and business models to deliver the 100,000 shortfall of new homes. Just as the car industry was automated, so the UK’s traditional house building sector now needs to step up.

“We need to build houses faster and more efficiently than ever before. Rosie has a mandate to deliver this.”

Toogood joins two more recent L&G hires as part of the company’s modular housing push. Building reported last month that Damon Brown will serve as a construction manager and David Jones as modular integration director.

Explaining the latest construction drive, Paul Stanworth, chief executive of Legal & General Capital, said: “Modular building is quicker and more efficient, and delivers at least the same or higher standards of building as traditional methods but with greater certainty.

“Crucially it is also far less labour intensive, providing additional capacity to the established UK housing sector at a critical time. It offers an economically viable solution and will deliver much needed scale.”

[first_things] 31/5/2017 09:53

170 million pipeline which is awaiting clarification of government policy. This should get sorted out after the generational election and would then deliver massive value to the business.

"There’s no question it will be sorted out – the question is how and when."

[irenekent] 31/5/2017 09:29

whites123
As a long time investor in this company I very much welcome your well written and researched posting. It puts most of the rubbish posted on the bulletin boards to shame. If we want to solve the housing crisis & special needs housing shortfall this company has the knowledge and means to help. Hopefully other investors will recognise this. Many thanks.

[whites123] 31/5/2017 09:14

ASHLEY HOUSE: "ASH"

From The Update and 76% interest held by ASH

The additional 24% of shares can revert to the minority shareholders once the enlarged F1M has achieved profits of more than £4m over the next three years.

“The £4Million Profit, is as large as the whole market cap of the enlarged group.!!!!!!!”
The stock has the potential to multibag many times over.

DYOR etc.

hxxp://www.ashleyhouseplc.com/a-property-developer-with-a-conscience/


Ashley House is a property developer. In case the phrase ‘property developer’ sends you scurrying for your shotgun – think again. Ashley House is a property developer with a conscience; a conscience that it puts into practice in its business. Last year it won the ‘Social Impact Company of the Year’ award at the Small Cap awards. It was a founder member of the Social Stock Exchange in 2013, and it has a clear statement of its beneficial mission: “to develop the most cost-effective health and community care property solutions, through enduring partnerships and proven expertise.”

To put some flesh on the bones of this I spoke to Tony Walters, Ashley House’s CEO. I started off by asking how the company made a remarkable financial turnaround, turning an £11 million pound loss in 2015 to a small profit in 2016. “The nature of our business is lumpy. We are reliant on schemes closing and deals being done so that we can recognise income,” said Walters. “We have expanded our offering into developing affordable housing, particularly for the elderly which is funded through government housing benefit. But there was a challenge for us with the Chancellor George Osborne’s Comprehensive Spending Review of 2015, where he capped the housing benefit allowance. What the change didn’t consider was people living in specially developed housing with communal areas. For example, our purpose built elderly care development in Grimsby, of 60 apartments in one building, has communal living areas, communal kitchens, with the ability that care can be delivered directly to people’s own flats or the communal spaces. The cap on housing benefit doesn’t work in that scenario. The government recognised that after the event, and agreed it will solve this problem by top-up grant payments. But almost two years on it’s not clear exactly how this will work. There’s no question it will be sorted out – the question is how and when. It is the case that this policy change has caused a slowdown in these developments. We have a pipeline of about £170 million, particularly of those sorts of schemes like Grimsby, but the councils and registered providers (housing associations) that we partner with for those schemes find it difficult to say yes, because at the moment the way the legislation sits, it doesn’t work. The rental streams they would receive from it are not enough to justify the cost of the building. That’s meant that we have had to slow down on these developments, which in turn meant income dropped.”

One of the weaknesses of Ashley House is arguably that it has, in the past, been too reliant on government funding of projects. Which is a terrible irony because, as Walters says, “what we do in the social spectrum is absolutely what the government wants to see done, first in terms of housing provision for people with care needs, we are providing much better value and improved health outcomes than the alternative of state-run nursing homes, and second the health buildings that we deliver can make the NHS more efficient. These things tick the right boxes for government. The problem is that – because we have been totally reliant on government for our income streams – we are susceptible to governments saying, ‘actually we’ll just change this policy.”

A similar challenge occurred in 2010, when funding for local health care such as GP’s practices was suddenly whipped away by government – which also hit Ashley House’s bottom line at that time. The schemes don’t get abandoned; nobody is saying they don’t want them; they just get delayed but that challenges the business in terms of profit and cash generation.

All of which means that Ashley House, which has been around for 25 years, has had to re-think its development philosophy and move into those areas of social need that are less dependent on the whims of government policy. “We have expanded our portfolio of the type of products we are producing. Our new modular business is exactly part of that strategy, to enable us to get into areas that aren’t reliant on government in addition to improving the quality and timing of our government funded schemes. So we have diversified the business. We’re working on schools and community buildings, and the modular business has enabled us to do that.”

Earlier this year Ashley House increased its ownership of F1 Modular Limited to 76%. F1 Modular was set up to design and deliver projects using off-site construction. For more than a year now it has enabled Ashley House to win and deliver schemes. F1 Modular is entering a new lease on an 80,000 square foot factory, covering eight acres, in Newtown, Powys, mid-Wales. Walters again: “Modular housing, that’s built in a factory under factory conditions, and delivered to site, fits well for social housing. It’s quicker and the quality is far better than on-site. We work in the factory to 2mm tolerances with our modular buildings; I don’t think anybody would be able to do that in a muddy field. This also helps tackle fuel poverty. The efficiency of these buildings is far superior to ones that are breeze-block on-site. We’re able to provide housing for the people in most need and, in a typical example of our modular two-up two-down housing, the house can be heated for just over £100 a year, because the quality and insulation is so good.” The modular construction strategy is also enabling Ashley House to venture into other fields such as fire stations, classrooms for schools, kiosks – even houseboats. It’s a way of flattening out the ‘lumpinessR17; of the company’s income stream and – critically – it makes it less dependent on the quirks of government policy.

Walters points out that venturing into modular production also provides an extra incentive for local authorities to consider using Ashley House as a developer: “One of the interesting thing with the modular business is we are saying to local councils, ‘you have this need, we can build houses. If you give us enough of a pipeline for houses – say 400 a year – we would put up an assembly plant in your area. Therefore we could employ local people to build your houses.’ Where this has been mooted we have got some really positive reaction.”

As a finale I talked to Tony Walters about Ashley House’s membership of the Social Stock Exchange. “We got involved with it right in the early stages,” he says. “We’re doing developments for the most vulnerable in society, and that’s important to us, for a number of reasons, not just for our socially minded investors. We’re listed on the Social Stock Exchange because it also works for us with clients. If we are talking to councils, and they see us as a nasty, stock market-listed corporate entity, trying to work in partnership with them, you get resistance. Actually to say ‘we’re not a nasty corporate, we are a proud founder member of the Social Stock Exchange, we measure and manage our impact on society’; that really helps. We see that as a real positive. And don’t forget our employees – they love the fact that we are reporting the social outcomes of our developments and making sure that everything we do has a positive social impact.”

[whites123] 31/5/2017 08:27

Amazingly back to zero trades per day.
Modular builds are going to be huge, and with the total market cap of the company as a target profit within 3 years minimum for a subsidaury the scope for multi bagging is enormous.

[first_things] 30/5/2017 16:38

Just noticed these comments from an interview with Tony Walters, Ashley House’s CEO by Gary Mead – SSX Editor and Partner with Orwell (the full article is accessible on their website/twitter).


"Walters points out that venturing into modular production also provides an extra incentive for local authorities to consider using Ashley House as a developer: “One of the interesting thing with the modular business is we are saying to local councils, ‘you have this need, we can build houses. If you give us enough of a pipeline for houses – say 400 a year – we would put up an assembly plant in your area. Therefore we could employ local people to build your houses.’ Where this has been mooted we have got some really positive reaction.”

[first_things] 25/5/2017 13:23

Things will start to get interesting when we start getting deals confirmed for modular housing. All political parties have big plans within this area so the prospects over the next five years are strong:)

[first_things] 25/5/2017 13:12

Looks like the buys are coming back after a pause
Next leg up 10p

[whites123] 23/5/2017 12:50

With it documented that a clear target of £4 Million profit within 3 years from F1 Modular, can we imagine, guess at what a more reflective share price would be?

Ruddy hell, it will be a monumentous increase in share price

With ASH also diverifying its going to be a good good year for ASH.

[scburbs] 23/5/2017 09:42

Most of what ASH does is generally high margin, but the problem is that they haven't been doing enough of it to cover the fixed cost base.

[whites123] 23/5/2017 07:01

Absolutely wskill.

I missed it, but apparently a good program on tv 2 evenings ago about "Flat Pack" Modular homes.

[wskill] 22/5/2017 13:01

I do not think the market can see how ASH is now diversifying away from its traditional line of business which has been very low margin the past few years, and heavily reliant on government funding.

This will make the company a different animal in the future tied to the housing markets ups and downs but with better margins.

[whites123] 22/5/2017 07:20

Social Care Housing.!!!!

No one can say its not a talk about headline at present. :-)

But with a commitment from ALL parties to increase the care homes, and a commitment to increase many fold housing and also a commitment to deiversify from traditional methods and embrace the Modular methods, one thing is absolute.
And that absolute is that F1 "ASH" will benefit.

The trade volumes are pitiful small, yet with a target to produce £4 Million Profiut from the F1 arm of ASH alone within 3 years its easy to see how undervalued the stock is, even if they should reach a tenth of that target it would demand a massive re-rating of the stock.

Buy now for potential HUGE gains is what I have been doing.