Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[8rad] 02/5/2019 19:43

CC the drill will increase his confidence(and ours) in this project but I cannot be but excited by what may occur here because of great possible opportunities at Salinbas and region . Because of our backstop namely Kiziltepe we can prosper bigtime with or without a favourable wind... it only matters by levels.

[charles clore] 02/5/2019 12:55

Kerim has improved his presentation skills quite dramatically I am very pleased to say. I feel that his increased confidence has played a major part in this and I hope it continues.

[carcosa] 02/5/2019 11:20

Another video out today:



Kerim Sener, Managing Director of Ariana Resources, provides an update on operations from the Company's shareholder meeting.

Seemed impressed by the shareholders who attended :-)

[xow98] 02/5/2019 11:15

Today's FT

Central bank gold buying buoys global demand
China and Russia lead 68% increase in central bank gold purchases in first quarter

[thanksamillion] 01/5/2019 16:18

Gold going up, silver down. Not usual to see such a divergence.

[bigglesbingham] 01/5/2019 15:04

The chappy from lse says he can't see what will ignite the sp??? Well salinbas for one

[michaelmcandrew] 01/5/2019 14:56

Largely agree with the additional comments. However, my recollection is that they were pretty clear that returns to shareholders would not be a priority once the loan is paid off and there is free cashflow. Frankly, they would be barmy to return cash and then borrow to finance exploration. Speculate to accumulate and all that!

[bigglesbingham] 01/5/2019 14:55

Nice spot soul??derisked it was!!!

[plasybryn] 01/5/2019 14:39

I think this is a key observation: MDV agreed I was in the right ballpark with a conservative free cash flow prediction of £8m pa for each of the JV partners post April 2020 (and the completion of the loan). Hmm, and our MV is £20m!
There is so much in the portfolio of assets that is yet to be valued and included in our valuation.
And imagine if they can get Tavsan up and running late 2020; doubling production!
First drill results back from Salinbas late June could also be very enlightening.
And then there is the possibility of the gold price hardening.
Difficult not to get a tiny bit excited, even for the most diehard sceptic!

[soulsauce] 01/5/2019 14:28

Cheers Plasybryn.

[plasybryn] 01/5/2019 14:21

Post 3:
Some discussions inevitably took place concerning ‘that’ placing. The BOD acknowledged it wasn’t the greatest achievement to date but that it was entirely necessary with the limited timescales they then faced. Dr S stated that if it hadn’t occurred we wouldn’t have had the plant built as quickly and we wouldn’t be in the position we are in now. Personally I wish shareholders would accept this now, its history and lessons were learned. Move on, please.
MDV agreed I was in the right ballpark with a conservative free cash flow prediction of £8m pa for each of the JV partners post April 2020 (and the completion of the loan). Hmm, and our MV is £20m!
The Kizilcukur trial mining material will be processed through Kiziltepe late summer, obviously will produce shiny stuff but will also to test how processing will be achieved. It’s very different to that currently being processed as its low in clay. I asked if the 3 x terms into the JV was negotiable in light of the reserves found. Dr S said not, but that AAU aren’t compelled to go down this route. There is another operation (I forget the name) close to Kizilcukur which may present a possibly alternative for processing. He did (I think) agree that the 3 x into the JV was a bit of gift to Proccea, but that at the end of the day the resource isn’t big enough to warrant its own plant, so we have to get it processed somehow.
Kizilcukur drilling results are imminent. Hint that it may be in the next couple of weeks.
Permitting is getting more efficient, both in general across the industry and for AAU as it is now respected by the authorities, so hopefully Tavsan can proceed soon, with 2020 still hoped for. But further Gantt charts are unlikely as the Kiziltepe time targets were frustrated by delayed permitting. They don’t want a reoccurrence in the future of expectations conveyed too strongly via Gannts.
Arzu South North (if you know what I mean) is exciting.
Ore is blended at the mill to an extent to smooth results, both for operational reasons (getting the processing right is hard if grades vary) and for reporting quarter on quarter.
Hopes that Tavsan can be extended out from 4 to 8 years LOM. Grades are poor but viable due to the nature of the deposit mineralisation on the very surface (very low strip ratio), but the upside is that you really just need a bunch of navvies with a few shovels from B&Q
I had a chat with MDV after the meeting, nice bloke. Fellow sailor and skier. He didn’t really divulge anything further about AAU, and if he had I wouldn’t report it I’m afraid, only meeting material. He has great respect for Dr S, and I could tell that he has no regrets with his level of shareholding. Read into that what you will.
I came away feeling totally reassured that the company is undervalued and well run. I still can’t see what will ignite the share price at the moment, with exploration extending years into the future.

[plasybryn] 01/5/2019 14:20

Post 2
I have to expand on what Michael said about Arzu South. It is starting to reach exhaustion maybe towards the end of this year. However there is still the possibility for deeper mining there as originally the drilling only extended to a maximum of 280m (I think that’s right), at which point mineralisation was still being encountered. There is also the possibility of further exploitation at the Northern End of Arzu South, though it may be in the future rather than continuing mining there now. I raised a concern that the move to Arzu North and Derya would cause disruption to production figures, but it was implied that this would be managed using stockpiles.

[plasybryn] 01/5/2019 14:18

A poster on LSE attended last night and he has agreed for me to copy his feedback.
I do it in stages as quite a bit.
Post 1
Did my usual drive to Oxford Park & Ride then Oxford Tube bus into London because of lack of late night trains to Telford, so late night and late start today!
Anyway. Generally more of the same, little if anything new. The presentation was very assured by Dr S, getting better with time tbh, with contributions from MDV also. No questions were ducked, and all answered (even daft ones from me).
So in addition to Michaels contribution. All of this is a brain dump so don’t expect logical structure:
Zack van Collier was I the audience, and contributed on several occasions. He is obviously rightly appreciated as important part of the team.
We can expect costs from the current mining to remain on a par with those recently reported, both in the recent quarter and foreseeable future. Oil is a very significant element of the companys costs, so the relative stability of PoO at a level significantly less than previous highs is welcome.
There is still significant undistributed funds in the JV, the amount was not however specific. Holding cash back in the prudent, and I personally support that, though would be nice to see a number!
I disagree with Michael on one point. There was discussion on the free cash flow post the completed repayments of the Kiziltepe loan - the BOD did not dismiss returns to shareholders, and were aware of s/h expectations, but that the needs of the ongoing business was the priority. They did point out the many potential uses of such money. On a general point they cannot commit to never seeking placings/ right issue but are not implying that any are likely. There are many uses for such money and I’m sure that free cash could be spent several times over on advancing exploration (and shortening timescales), maintenance of licences etc etc – the latter is a concern as progress has to be shown to maintain/ renew, although as the Companys reputation grows this becomes easier. The BOD were confident of the Companys standing with the Turkish authorities (including the current lending Bank).
Support from Turkish government, for mining in general as well as Ariana, is solid. They don’t see any immediate threat to the Turkish economy but acknowledged that external influences cannot be predicted (but that is true pretty much everywhere).

[soulsauce] 01/5/2019 14:14

Derailed bigglesbingham or derisked 😊

[jaynesdad] 01/5/2019 14:07

Hello JC
All I am saying that while the MC is (as far as most here are concerned) massively undervalued then we don't want a placing. Think of the effect on the net asset value per share if say the number of shares in issue were doubled at, say 1.5p (discount to current share price would be inevitable), to raise £15m - a figure that will be less than 2 years net cash once the Kiziltepe loan is repaid in 12 months time. I agree with Biggles that it may look plausible at 5p, but not at this level. Much as I don't like companies loading debt on their balance sheets, that would be my preference if a cash raise were necessary in AAUs current (essentially debt free)position. Just my opinion.

[bigglesbingham] 01/5/2019 14:06

Have to say I'm very excited about the prospects here. It's been dramatically derailed over the last 24 months!

[bigglesbingham] 01/5/2019 14:05

Point here is future cash calls cannot be taken off table. The word here is future. Yes I agree if the share was at current price hell no to a cash call. Price above 5p to complete drilling after superb results from 10000m drilling then no issue. Particularly if it means we end up with a 100% hot madden equivalent !!!

[soulsauce] 01/5/2019 13:48

Agree Charles.

[jc2706] 01/5/2019 13:30

JaynesDad,

The point being that the raise would be considerably higher if we had those kind of results. The market is occasionally not stupid - Hot Maden is a known entity, so any hint of something similar would cause a bit of a rush.

[charles clore] 01/5/2019 13:11

I get the distinct feeling that in the event of Salinas producing Hot Maden type results of the MARL variety, fundraising would be the least of our problems. On the contrary, I think our biggest challenge would be fighting off predators!

[dixi] 01/5/2019 12:45

I do not think it would be such a bad thing for PI's if it was off the back of spectacular results from Salinbas.

[jaynesdad] 01/5/2019 12:43

If you agree that this share sis significantly undervalued than I cannot agree that a cash call is good for existing shareholders.

[jc2706] 01/5/2019 12:33

If 2p is breached we could see a quick run up to 2.5p ish.

[jc2706] 01/5/2019 12:28

bigglesbingham,

I agree completely with that sentiment. A cash call to accelerate Salinbas on the back of Hot Maden-like results would be entirely welcomed. Cash calls can put a drag on the share price but one that accelerates progress can actually provide a floor to the share price.

[thanksamillion] 01/5/2019 11:43

Plenty of room for the technical pointers RSI/Stochastic to rise further indicating breach of 2p possible this time.