Anzon Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jonno1] 10/9/2007 07:15

more blue in OZ on a red day

[bomfin] 07/9/2007 07:57

Ed,

Quite! Rak bought shares at £1.20 and then again around the £1 mark to build up a near 10% stake. Looks to me though that they got nearly £3.5 million interest/annum for the bonds though. AEL should have the money from the bonds. What are they doing with it? What project do they have in mind? Why arn't Rak building there stake at this level?(lower than previous share purchases)?
I'm hoping and also guessing to an extent that any sizeable buy will move the share price upwards quite quickly and that there arn't any big sellers at current sale price. imho dyor

[ed 123] 06/9/2007 23:22

bomfin,

I think there will have been takeover approaches because AZA and AEL have appointed advisers. AZA's shareprice has responded as I might have expected. The enigma for me is that AEL's shareprice has not moved as high as its shareholding in AZA would suggest that it should. In an earlier post I aired the thought that RAK P might want to go for AEL, but its shareprice action does not imply that anyone is interested. RAK P should have looked carefully into AEL before paying for its shares and bonds, so presumably AEL is sound. Maybe there will be a bid for AZA and AEL will rocket, I just don't know.

[smudgeroo] 06/9/2007 09:47

Ed 123

LOL! Keep talking, your almost talking me into a top up too.

[bomfin] 06/9/2007 09:46

Ed,

Something is definitely going on.

If AZA have had serious offers then the obvious way for anyone to build a stake is to buy AEL. Especially since they are at such a discount to AZA. If AEL doesn't start to go up I smell a rat. Currently anyone can get 53% of AZA for about £90 million. Either BMG is in trouble or AEL is about to go up by about 20p/share. imho dyor

[ed 123] 06/9/2007 09:40

NTV, I don't trade foreign stocks but TD Waterhouse would be a possibility for you.


Smudgeroo, regarding AEL's undervaluation, could it be self-perpetuating? Is there now an expectation that it will always be undervalued? So, if the price goes up, sellers come in early because they don't expect it ever to reach fair value?

A successful bid for AZA should throw the spotlight onto AEL and its undervaluation. The undervaluation could end at that point.

I'm almost talking myself into a top-up.

[smudgeroo] 06/9/2007 09:26

bomfin,

Agree with those figures, in my experience a take out offer will normally come in at about a 25-30% premium to the current share price.

Today AZA closed at A$1.53 on the offer. A 30% premium to that would give A$1.99 so A$2 is what I would expect an offer to materialise at.

AZA at A$2 would value AEL's 53.1% share at £160m at today's exchange rate. That equates to a share price of £1.67!

It just baffles me as to how this stock remains so undervalued.

[bomfin] 06/9/2007 09:13

I'm not able to deal in Australia and don't know a broker. I know Clydesdale bank is Australian owned.

Re AZA. What would be a reasonable premium to give a take out price and where would that put AEL.

If AZA went for $A 2/share that would give a return of about £160 million to AEL and should be able to put AEL share price towards £1.50 each. imho dyor

[ntv] 06/9/2007 08:13

yes aza up another 2% in aus
anyone got a decent broker for aus cos i see spreads are very tight unlike uk mkt

[ed 123] 06/9/2007 08:05

Yes, it continues to look firm. Management may be busy progressing the potential bid enquiries. Website updates may be lower priority. With a bit of good luck there may not be any need to put the presentation onto the website. ;-)

[bomfin] 06/9/2007 07:50

No presentation but up a few cents in Australia.

[bomfin] 05/9/2007 14:00

Think they presented at the good oil conference in Fremantle today so perhaps news from their presentation tomorrow?

[ed 123] 05/9/2007 11:35

Sorry, I don't know the risked value for that prospect. High risk/high reward prospects are not my favourites. I prefer a gradual, more assured build-up of reserves. I work on the assumption that high risk ventures will fail.

Yes, AZA continues to be well supported despite the NXS hiccough. I presume that the market believes a takeover will happen. AEL is still too cheap in the market. I don't suppose we'll see any action here until the next AZA announcement.

[bomfin] 05/9/2007 07:42

AZA share price still strong.

[bomfin] 04/9/2007 07:49

AZA held up really well last night. Nexus got hammered and is down 37 cents.

When they sold 10% of BMG they didn't sell a share in the licence to the south where AZA hold 20% and Nexus hold 80%. Nexus say there are 2 potential deep water 1 billion barrel prospects there. If they get a rig ordered for that prospect what is the risked value?

[ed 123] 04/9/2007 00:10

Thanks bomfin, NTV and Smudgeroo.

My thoughts:-

There may be several routine type conditions concerning the possible bid for AZA. Echuca Schoals result should affect the value of NXS, and AZA holds 17%, and AEL 53% of that. However, although not a good result, it appears there is need for further appraisal of Echuca Shoals. It seems almost certain to be smaller than previously thought, but there is something there and further appraisal is necessary. As for NXS, it has another half dozen or so, planned well drillings over the next 12 months, so it's not a one trick pony.

Regarding the impact of this news on AEL's shareprice, it's hard to guess, since AEL is already undervalued with refernce to its AZA holding, anyway.

Overall, I still think a bid for AZA will come. This result may slightly reduce the amount offered.

[ntv] 03/9/2007 23:36

although it does say they are not sure whether it is in communication with previous i guess they will want to look againd siesmic

[bomfin] 03/9/2007 23:18

Blimey!

I'd missed the negative result on Ecucha Schoals well. Expect a bad day for Nexus on the market today and a bad day for AZA unless ofcourse this was what was conditional about the previous approaches?

[bomfin] 03/9/2007 17:20

15 December 2005
Ref: #279/05
Australian Stock Exchange Ltd
Companies Announcement Office
Electronic Lodgement System
Dear Sir,
ANNOUNCEMENT TO ASX
BEACH PETROLEUM ACQUIRES FURTHER EQUITY IN BASKER-MANTA-GUMMY
Beach Petroleum is pleased to advise that it has exercised its option to acquire from Anzon
Limited a further 12.5% interest in the Basker-Manta-Gummy ("BMG") oil and gas project in
the Gippsland Basin, offshore Victoria. This transaction will increase Beach's equity in the
BMG Project to 50%.
The terms of the acquisition, which have been accepted by Anzon, are:
Effective Date: 1 January 2006
Completion Date: 13 January 2006
Consideration: A$50 million
- A$20 million on Completion
- A$30 million on 28 February 2006.
Other: Royalty of US$2.50/bbbl to be paid on 12.5% share of gross production
above 30.1 million barrels

Beach is also required to pay an oil price bonus to Anzon of up to US$2.50/bbl on 12.5% of oil sales during the first 3 years of production. Based upon the 2P production forecast this payment could total up to A$10 million, if oil prices remain above US$45/bbl over the period 2006-08. • Beach will pay Anzon US$0.3125/bbl for oil production from Basker-Manta above 30.1 mmb. • A contingent gas resource of 94 BCF is identified in the Manta and Gummy Fields. Beach is required to pay further premiumstotalling up to $7.5 million if these fields are developed for gas production.

Unfortunately much of the oil price dependent royalty will end after 2008.

[bomfin] 03/9/2007 16:48

NTV, ED,

AZA seems undervalued to me. If you go by the recent sale of 10% of BMG the remaining 40% is worth $A 492 million.My understanding is that Much of Beach's remaining 40% has royalties due to AZA of roughly $US 2.50/barrel. At current oil price and because they'll take about 10 years to be earned I currenlty value those royalties at £10 million. AZA's market cap along with the Nexus and the possible extension of BMG into the southern licence should be at least £250 million.

Will print up the royalty information later tonight.

rgds bomfin

[ed 123] 03/9/2007 09:06

Agree AEL is cheap in the market. With more than one interested party, a bouyant oil market, useful reserves and a share in NXS, it looks likely that an offer for AZA will be made, imho. AEL then makes the decision on AZA's future. A firm offer would allow AEL to separate from AZA and to take (presumably) a large cash sum. Hence, I think if a firm offer is made for AZA, AEL's share price MUST respond strongly.

We could be waiting for a couple of months for further news, who knows? If the eventual news is good, my view is that there has to be a big mark up in AEL's share price.

[ntv] 03/9/2007 08:26

an interesting situation here bomfin
will wait and see how it pans out

[bomfin] 03/9/2007 08:21

OK all how does this sound?

Interested parties in AZA (fact)

AEL 53% share of AZA (fact)

AEL at significant discount to AZA (fact)

Can't last?

[bomfin] 02/9/2007 22:19

You're welcome.

Easy mistake to make.