Anzon Energy Share Discussion Threads

[smudgeroo] 02/9/2007 22:07

bomfin,

Many thanks for the correction.

I have now edited my previous post.

Regards,

[bomfin] 31/8/2007 19:14

Yes Smudgeroo but I don't think you can count the Nexus shares twice!! They should be counted within the AZA shareprice! but as it happens I reckon AZA are still undervalued. imho dyor

[smudgeroo] 31/8/2007 13:03

bomfin,

Agree, this is what I was referring to in some of my previous posts about the AIM supposedly being fair.

AEL's interest in AZA is currently worth £122m alone.

And we are currently capped at £78m!

Crazy!!!

As the saying goes, "value will always out"

[bomfin] 31/8/2007 12:44

That's a big difference.Considering AEL's assets are nearly all shares in AZA it's even more surprising.

[smudgeroo] 31/8/2007 10:25

scubbler2,

Agree, the chart below shows the difference between AEL and AZA since listing on the AIM. During the first six months the two prices were pretty consistent. Since then the gap between the two prices has grown quite considerably. As you say, still some way to go for AEL.

[scubbler2] 31/8/2007 10:14

Ael is still be way out of step with Axa share price - a few months ago, with not good news, Ael had a closer correlation to aza price.On that basis have added more.Some way to go imo.

[bomfin] 31/8/2007 07:54

65.9 million Nexus shares. Previously I'd mentioned near 70 million. Apologies.

Still at current Nexus share price currently worth about £20 million to AEL.

imho

[bomfin] 31/8/2007 07:52

Re current BMG situation from Aza's half yearly report issued today.

which is located in sheltered waters, currently Westernport Bay. The return time for this operation has been refined
to 7 days, allowing production to continue at an average rate in excess of 4,000 bopd. Operating costs are covered
by less than 3,000 bopd at current oil prices.
AZA has insurance cover for both the SPM re-instatement work and for loss of Profit.

[markfrankie] 30/8/2007 15:56

all very interesting, i love coincidence's

[ed 123] 30/8/2007 13:32

Agree, RAK P is highly likely to be one of the parties.

If someone else takes over AZA then RAK P is left with an investment in a company (AEL) which largely holds cash, whereas RAK P wanted investment in an oil and gas business. Another option for RAK P would be to buy AEL, then it could keep a large interest in AZA in the vehicle (AEL) in which it already held a stake.

It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds.

After deserting the ship, I quietly picked up a few on 28th August and a few more following these announcements.

[greatfull dead] 30/8/2007 12:40

bomfin, could well be after RAK pulled out of the takeover deal with GKP. AZA far better company.

[smudgeroo] 30/8/2007 12:35

Could be a possibility bomfin.

[bomfin] 30/8/2007 12:31

Rak are on the acquisition trail. Wonder if they'd try to buy out AZA?

[smudgeroo] 30/8/2007 12:27

Well both of these announcements look like favourable in my opinion.

"The Board of Directors of Anzon Energy Limited (Anzon) is pleased to announce
the appointment of Mr Peter Sadler as a Non-Executive Director effective today.
Mr Sadler is Chief Executive Officer of Ras Al Khaimah Petroleum PCL (RAK
Petroleum) and is RAK Petroleum's nominated representative on the Board of
Anzon."

You scratch my back and I'll scratch yours.

Plus

"AEL is AZA's controlling shareholder and has a 53% equity interest in AZA. AEL wishes to advise that it currently has no intention to make an offer for the
minority 47% interest in AZA at this time. Furthermore, AEL has resolved to
assist AZA in the evaluation of approaches to AZA and appropriate strategies in
respect thereto, in order to maximise returns to all shareholders."

[smudgeroo] 30/8/2007 12:21

RNS Number:0107D
Anzon Energy Limited
30 August 2007

ANZON ENERGY LIMITED (CODE: AEL)

30 August 2007

ANZON AUSTRALIA LIMITED (AZA)
RECEIVES APPROACHES FROM INTERESTED PARTIES

AEL refers to the ASX announcement by AZA on 27 August 2007, where AZA advised
that it has received a number of approaches from parties which could lead to an
offer or proposal being put to AZA shareholders.

AEL is AZA's controlling shareholder and has a 53% equity interest in AZA. AEL
wishes to advise that it currently has no intention to make an offer for the
minority 47% interest in AZA at this time. Furthermore, AEL has resolved to
assist AZA in the evaluation of approaches to AZA and appropriate strategies in
respect thereto, in order to maximise returns to all shareholders.

In this regard, AEL has appointed Macquarie Bank Limited and Corrs Chambers
Westgarth as its advisors in Sydney.

For further information please contact:

Anzon Energy Limited: Mr Tony Strasser [phone]
Macquarie Bank Limited: Mr Robert Sennitt [phone]
Grant Thornton Corporate Finance: Fiona Owen [phone]

[bomfin] 30/8/2007 11:57

This fossetmaker well is a biggy for Nexus but since AZA own 1/7th of Nexus and AEL own just over 50% of AZA it is also a biggy for AEL. If it points towards NEXUS having 200 million barrels condensate with 500 million boe gas then it's mega. If this is a particulary successful well for nexus I expect AEL's share of Nexus to be worth £40 million. imho dyor

[smudgeroo] 30/8/2007 11:02

I see Macquarie bank have issued an outperform rating on NXS.

Bodes well for 70m share held in NXS by AZA.

Highlights:

Event

* Outperform, A$2.25 target price: We initiate coverage of Nexus Energy (NXS) with an Outperform recommendation and A$2.25 target price.
Impact

* Nexus – a rising oil and gas profile: Nexus Energy (NXS) is an Australian based oil and gas explorer and developer. Growth assets include the Longtom gas development (100%) offshore near the Gippsland Basin, Crux
condensate stripping project (85%) and Echuca Shoals (66%) condensate and gas appraisal opportunity, both in the Carnarvon Basin.

* Currently developing Longtom – The first growth platform: With 350PJ and 4.2mmbbl of booked 2P reserves at Longtom, NXS (100%) is expecting to make first gas sales to Santos by end September 2008. Longtom is
forecast to cost up to ~A$200m to develop and produce at an initial contract rate of ~25PJ/a.

* Crux development expected to further catapult reserves: The early progress of the Nexus operated Crux field as a condensate-stripping project has been encouraging with FID anticipated by 2Q08, and first production by 2H10. It is anticipated NXS will book up to 55mmbbl of 2P reserves at Crux, nearly doubling the current 57mmboe of 2P reserves.

*We estimate Crux (NXS, 85%) has the potential to produce at an average plateau rate of ~32,500bopd (gross) generating NXS up to A$645m in EBITDA pa in FY12.

* Appraising Echuca Shoals with Shell: The much anticipated appraisal of Echuca Shoals (66%) has commenced with the Fossetmaker-1 appraisal well. The best estimate contingent resource for Echuca Shoals is 2.2Tcf and 135mmbbl, making the field's potential development significant for NXS. Shell (34%) has partially farmed into the acreage and is funding the current well. Appraisal results are imminent.

Price catalyst

* 12-month price target: A$2.25 based on a DCF methodology.
* Catalyst: FID at Crux and positive appraisal results of Echuca Shoals

Action and recommendation

* Outperform: We highlight NXS is currently trading at a ~28% discount to our A$2.25 target price. With three gas and condensate projects at various stages of appraisal and development, Nexus Energy offers investors the potential for significant upside.

* Near term catalyst: Appraisal results from Fossetmaker-1 are imminent.

* Preliminary value attributed to Echuca Shoals: We currently value the company's net best estimate reserves at A$2.50/bbl (A$10 NPV per barrel risked at 25%) for the condensate resource and the sale of the gas for ~A$50m which is in line with the right to produce the gas resource from 2020 at Crux. This gives Echuca Shoals the preliminary value of A$273m or A$0.51ps to our target price and A$0.13ps to our valuation (risked at 25%). Un-risked, the upside to our target price could potentially be an additional A$1.24ps.

Target price net Echuca Shoals:

Excluding Echuca Shoals, our target price would be ~A$1.75ps.

[jonno1] 30/8/2007 09:37

rude not to buy some more

[bomfin] 30/8/2007 09:36

just added

[smudgeroo] 30/8/2007 08:29

Anzon finishes up 3.2% in Oz on strong volume and the MM's mark it down almost 7% here.

And they say the AIM isn't corrupt.

LOL! Go figure.

[pre] 30/8/2007 08:26

impatient pi's bailing out already?

[smudgeroo] 29/8/2007 08:24

Nice to see AZA finish up in Oz today even if it was by only 0.3%. AEL may now prove to be a bit of a safe haven from the volatility of the markets now that a number of bids have been confirmed (fingers xxd).

[smudgeroo] 28/8/2007 17:58

bomfin,

Thanks for the reassurance.

I shall continue to add as and when I get the chance.

Good fortune

[bomfin] 28/8/2007 17:51

Smudgeroo,

I'd go along with your figures. I reckon AEL could make it to £1.50 on a takeover. If the fossetmaker(? spelling)well which is currently drilling is good then you could add on another 20 to 40p to that. imho dyor