Anzon Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bomfin] 09/10/2007 09:34

Looking good.

thanks for that info

[smudgeroo] 09/10/2007 09:28

LOL Karlos,

Was just going to post that article myself.

Here's the link should anyone need it:

[karlos885] 09/10/2007 09:11

Taken from bb in oz

Anzon investors sit on sell-off windfall

Nigel Wilson, Energy writer | October 08, 2007

WHATEVER the wash-up concerning the future of Anzon Australia, some investors are going to make a lot of money.

Anzon Australia is owned 53 per cent by London Alternative Investment Market-listed Anzon Energy, which pumped around $6 million into the initial float of Anzon Australia.

That investment is set to be worth around $400 million if Anzon succeeds in selling itself to the highest bidder.

While much interest is centred on a creeping share market raid by Nexus on Anzon and the possibility of a merger, Anzon founder Steve Koroknay remains committed to continuing the process begun earlier this year which has resulted in a shortlist of four unidentified groups looking at Anzon's data room with the aim of delivering a tender sale.

But Koroknay is a realist. And that means he won't rule out Nexus winning.

The four on the shortlist are thought to be Santos, Origin Energy, AWE and ARC Energy but Nexus has put the view that an Anzon/Nexus merger makes sense in creating a substantial independent Australian energy company with complementary assets, particularly for the eastern states energy market.

Koroknay says there is no bad blood between him and Nexus chief Ian Tchacos even though the market has tended to play up the acrimonious and ultimately unsuccessful $171 million all-scrip bid by Anzon for Nexus last year.

That left Anzon with a 12.4 per cent stake in Nexus - which has clearly irked Mr Tchacos.

The possibility that an unwelcome player might emerge on Nexus's register is one he's prepared to repel, which is the defensive part of the Anzon share raid strategy.

Nexus has now picked up 16.4 per cent of Anzon and the latter's share price has hit an all-time record of more than $1.81, valuing the company at more than $750 million. Koroknay says that even at this price there are others around that value Anzon more.

Anzon is the originator and now 40 per cent owner of the Basker/Manta/Gummy development in Bass Strait.

Basker is a field that no one in Gippsland Basin operator Esso Australia, with the exception of Koroknay, thought could be made to work.

But an innovative plan which saw initial development of an oil leg using an FPSO and a shuttle tanker to refineries, and subsequently confirmation of a substantial and market-significant gas field, has created an attractive asset.

Certainly Reg Nelson of Beach Petroleum believes that theory, having picked up half of the project as part of a play to capitalise on the rising gas prices in the nation's southeast corner.

Anzon and Beach have subsequently each sold down their interests to Japanese giant Itochu, which has paid $226 million for a 20 per cent stake. Tchacos says there are synergies between Nexus, with its 100 per cent owned Longtom gas project in Bass Strait, and the Basker/Manta/Gummy project, which would result in shareholders' interests being strengthened because of Nexus's operations in the Timor Sea.

Tchacos says there is a compelling case for a merger, although he concedes Nexus's timetable might not suit Koroknay, who has indicated he wants to be clear of Anzon by early next year at the latest.

According to the Nexus chief, key benefits to shareholders of both companies would include creation of a $1.5 billion ASX-listed mid-cap oil and gas company that would be included in the S&P/ASX 200 index.

The merged company would have a unique profile of production and growth projects with complementary asset positions in the Gippsland Basin creating potential for synergies.

[smudgeroo] 08/10/2007 10:02

Good to see AZA adding fuel to the fire with the announcements today and Friday.

[greatfull dead] 05/10/2007 13:40

I want a takeover to happen.

[karlos885] 05/10/2007 13:28

yes i did silly me must be all this sun and blue sky gone str8 to my head!

[smudgeroo] 05/10/2007 13:15

Karlos

Think you meant to say "whether AZA is taken over or not?"

[karlos885] 05/10/2007 12:57

good points. looking good either way short (takeover) or long term (no takeover) whether ael is taken over or not, things seem to be nicely falling into place for the future.

[bomfin] 05/10/2007 12:41

Not only that imho. I think AZA are confident that BMG extends into the 80/20
NXS/AZA block. 10% of current block might end up as only 5% of whole project as the farm in doesn't extend into the other block. Cash is needed to develop the remainder of the (what appears) bigger field. I also reckon Nexus know this so buying AZA shares isn't a bad investment to them. imho dyor

[goodgrief] 05/10/2007 12:35

The point... to prove to the market in hard cash the value of its operation.

[karlos885] 05/10/2007 12:33

whats your opinions on the sale, is anzon still tiding up its books for the takeover, as it still has 40% interest, otherwise what was the point of selling 10% in a profitable operation?

[greatfull dead] 05/10/2007 07:38

Heres something to mull over.

[smudgeroo] 04/10/2007 09:07

Thanks GD.

Very interesting. So Nexus did put forward an offer originally but the board felt that it wasn't substantial enough or in the interest of the shareholders to invite them to the open data room. Consequently NXS got their back up and they have started to accumulate heavily in AZA with a possible view to obtaining a blocking stake if and when an offer for the company emerges from another suitor. Remember though that AEL has the controlling stake here and the hostility that AZA received when they bid for NXS last year will still be fresh in their minds.

From the RNS:

"The board of AZA is and will continue to act in the best interests of all shareholders including considering all proposals, or revisions of proposals, on their merits in order to determine if they are attractive to shareholders."

Sounds to me like a bidding war could soon emerge which would ultimately lead to a share price higher than that of todays. I still think we will see an offer in the region of A$2.10-2.30 for AZA which would give AEL's controlling stake in AZA a inherent value of between £180-200m or approximately 185-210p per share.

Current value of AEL's 53.11% stake in AZA = £155m or 162p per share!

[bomfin] 04/10/2007 07:49

So Aza think they've got a better proposal. Do Nexus keep buying?

[greatfull dead] 04/10/2007 06:27

More from OZ on Nexus.

[bomfin] 03/10/2007 07:46

Not much movement there although Nexus is down. I havn't done the research but if Nexus are proposing a straight merger then could be their market cap is currently higher. This would mean their share price would fall a bit and AZA should be comparably higher.

Will Nexus stop buying shares? If they buy more will they pay more for them?

Will Aza go along with the merger? If they don't will they get a better offer elsewhere?

Would Nexus be prepared to see the value of their investment drop?

Aza's investment in Nexus is worth more than double what they paid for it. Can this be a win/win situation or will there be a loser?

time will tell.

imho dyor

[jonno1] 03/10/2007 07:38

understand that , so why was the price down in OZ?

[bomfin] 03/10/2007 07:22

Very interesting.

Between AEL and Nexus that's 70% of AZA. Nexus want to merge with AEL. Release clearly suggests that BMG gas can go mainland. That's excellent news for BMG project. As Nexus state it provides excellent chances for cost savings.

[greatfull dead] 03/10/2007 07:12

ASX- Nexus increases stake in AZA to 16.4%

[bomfin] 02/10/2007 09:58

AEL's AZA shares currently worth about £150 million.

AZA shares as likely to go up as down at present imho

[smudgeroo] 01/10/2007 08:28

I notice that another 8.9 million shares were bought today in a single trade in AZA at 4 cents above the offer price. Somebody sure is keen to get their hands on them. Nexus adding again?

[bomfin] 28/9/2007 07:19

From today's bpt update.

Basker field is very much larger than
first anticipated. This has increased our
expectation of the size of the oil and
gas resources in place. Broadly speaking,
present estimates of 2P oil reserves are
nearly twice original expectations. The
gas and condensate resource also appears
to be much larger - nearly quadruple
the initial estimate. This is very good in
the broad perspective of a much longer
potential life for the project. However,
in retrospect, we can now see that the
development wells, instead of straddling
what was initially mapped as a much
smaller field, are in fact located on
the western crest of a larger structure
and closer to gas trapped higher in the
structure.
The potential for much more oil than
first anticipated means that more wells
will need to be drilled to produce it
efficiently. That process will begin with
the drilling of Basker-6 in early 2008.
Drilling capacity has been procured to
drill this and a range of wells that are
likely to include additional Basker oil
wells, gas delineation and exploration
wells during 2008.
The presence of more gas than expected
has had a more immediate effect. It has
led to production of more gas with the
oil, possibly because of the location of
the existing wells. The bulk of produced
gas is presently compressed and
reinjected into the subsurface via the
Basker-4 well, but the volumes that can
be thus dealt with are restricted by the
capacity of the production vessel and its
installed compressors. These limitations
on gas handling have curbed oil
production in the interim. The situation
can ultimately be resolved by exporting
the gas from the site, for example by
pipeline to shore. In turn, this should
provide extra revenue through sales of
gas and condensate, while optimizing oil
production. Beach Petroleum is working
with the operator to ensure that this
can be achieved as soon as possible, but
always with a focus on what will deliver
the best value overall.
In that sense, we welcome the entry of
Itochu Australia Ltd to the BMG Joint
Venture. Itochu has agreed to acquire
20% of the project by purchasing a 10%
interest from each of Beach Petroleum
and Anzon Australia. Itochu brings
additional financial and technical
strength to the Joint Venture and
we look forward to accelerating field
development over the next year.
Through its sale of a 10% interest, Beach
Petroleum will receive $123 million,
effectively valuing the project at a total
of $1.23 billion. It is worth noting that
this is considerably more than valuations
ascribed to date by any analysts covering
the project.

[smudgeroo] 27/9/2007 11:14

Also for the chartists, it's looking good for a Golden Cross within the next couple of weeks.

[smudgeroo] 27/9/2007 11:09

Yep, results not to bad at all (not that I profess to be an expert in that field).

Like you say Basker field still producing at 4000 bopd with full production expected to be back up and running by end of October / early November so not too long to wait.

Have noticed that there have been a lot of broker trades over the last week or so and not small ones at that. Could somebody be building a stake here on the quiet with the price being held back to accomodate. I notice that the share price has been rather stagnant over the last couple of days giving AEL a market cap of bang on £100m whilst AZA has continued to rise in Oz with the share price closing at an all time high today. Rather convienient wouldn't you say.

[bomfin] 27/9/2007 10:35

Results OK.

Production at basker over 4,000 bopd. Full production restored October/November. November only if slippage on boat timing.

Rig contracts in place for plenty drilling in 2008. Indonesian ops sold for a few million. Cleans things up for a potential buyer. imho dyor