Anzon Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bomfin] 26/9/2007 12:21

1663, edited! Should have read P10 figures instead of P90. Now reads P10!!

Apologies,

bomfin

[karlos885] 26/9/2007 12:12

good post. results due so we could hear something very soon.

[bomfin] 26/9/2007 12:02

Think they were hoping to get full production back in October. Hope that's going to plan. BPT's P10 figures for BMG are interesting. They are about 250 million boe. They don't have a share in the block Basker might extend into.

This is about the possible size of the extension in my opinion. Nexus might have got wind that it could be big and since they own 80% of the block they don't want to be watching from the sidelines as Aza figure out the potential expanded development.

If the P10 were ever proven up and the possible overlap adds more reserves it's not impossible that Aza could have over 100 million boe net reserves and that AEL could have over 50 million boe net reserves. Give them £5/boe and £250 million for AEL is not impossible. Basker oil goes for top price which is currently over $80/barrel.

All again imho and dyor

[markfrankie] 26/9/2007 10:41

havnt been checking much.
besides all this "which is great"! is our jetty up n running again?

[bomfin] 26/9/2007 05:33

I'd say the above article is near the mark.

Nexus have 80% of the block which it's said the bigger Basker field extends into. AZA have the other 20% of that block. If Nexus reckon there's another 50 million barrels oil in their block i.e. then it makes sense for them to want to control the project. Why did aza go all out for Nexus last year? It suggests they already perhaps knew that Basker was bigger and extended into that block. It's all got to be sorted before the next wells in the area and they're due within months. all imho dyor

[smudgeroo] 25/9/2007 14:25

Anzon and Nexus in family feud
John Durie
September 25, 2007

WHILE investors were punting big time at the top end of the resources market, pushing the likes of BHP Billiton up 5.2 per cent to $43.14 a share, there was also plenty of action among the juniors.

Anzon's Steven Koroknay and Nexus's Ian Tchacos are old sparring partners, with interests in the Bass Strait oil and gas business.

Last year, Koroknay bid for Nexus but was rebuffed and now Tchacos is returning the favour, revealing a 10.9 per cent stake in Anzon yesterday.

Anzon is 53 per cent controlled by Anzon Energy in Britain and it seems the latter's shareholders want to raise some cash, so a data room for the Australian arm is now open for business.

It is said some big guns are having a look, including Santos and Origin, and some not so big ones such as Arc Energy and AWE.

Anzon owns 12.5 per cent of Nexus so the battle is very much a family affair, but it is not a close family.

Just to highlight affair's family nature, Nexus acquired some of its stake from Viking Shipping, a Norwegian giant that specialises in offshore drilling rigs.

Under the latter deal, the Anzon shares were traded for Nexus scrip, which lifted its holding in Nexus to 18per cent.

One could confidently predict that Ian Tchacos has lodged, or is about to, a bid for Anzon, apparently satisfied that its troubled Basker Manta project in Bass Strait is running better and offering plenty of value.

Which is exactly what Koroknay told him last year.

Just what role the big guys like Santos and Origin will play in the game, now that all the cross shareholdings are out for all to see, remains to be seen.

But it is fair to presume it's game on.

[smudgeroo] 25/9/2007 12:37

And if a preditor of AZA were to take a large stake of the company by aquiring AEL then my guess is the offer price for AEL would be somewhere near the proportionate value of AZA.

Got to be looking at a possible £1.40 per share here surely?

Comments welcome.

[smudgeroo] 25/9/2007 11:35

A quick update on the value of AEL's stake in AZA at todays exchange rate.

AZA at A$1.77 per share is currently worth A$655m or £281m.

Therefore AEL's 53.1% share in AZA is currently worth £149m or £1.55 per share

[karlos885] 25/9/2007 08:45

according to this nexus were invited.

[karlos885] 25/9/2007 08:43

smudge, results could be out on thurs if last year is anything to go by, already two big trades gone through today. Could there be an upgrading of the reserves in the results? either way all looking very hostile, looks as if if a proposed offer is going to be made and accepted, its going to have to be at a big premuim to todays shareprice, thanks to nexus!

[smudgeroo] 25/9/2007 08:17

Nexus buys a blocking stake in rival Anzon
Nigel Wilson, Energy writer
September 25, 2007

NEXUS has dealt itself into the future of one-time suitor Anzon, acquiring a blocking equity stake of more than 10 per cent and offering to enter merger talks.

Anzon, which is the architect and 50 per cent owner of the innovative Basker/Manta oil project in Bass Strait, last year made an 80c a share offer for Nexus which was rejected amid great acrimony by Nexus managing director Ian Tchacos.

Anzon has sought expressions of interest but has not sought an arrangement with Nexus.

Yesterday Anzon founder and executive chairman Steve Koroknay was faced with the probability that he will have to deal with Mr Tchacos after the latter issued a shareholder notice for a relevant interest in 40.4 million Anzon Australia shares, or 10.91 per cent.

While Nexus has picked up 26.8 million Anzon shares on market for a weighted average price of $1.69 each, the remainder comes from a parcel of 13.6 million Anzon shares previously held by Norwegian company Viking Shipping owned by the millionaire Clauson family.

Viking is Nexus's major shareholder, with about 18 per cent, and is the major backer of its Crux project off northern Australia.

Nexus has made a placement to Viking for the parcel in the ratio of 1.1 of its shares for each Anzon share.

[smudgeroo] 25/9/2007 07:48

Further to my posts yesterday...



Nexus eyes merger with Anzon
Barry FitzGerald
September 25, 2007

NEXUS Energy is seeking to create a $1.5 billion mid-tier oil and gas group by proposing a merger with Sydney-based Bass Strait oil producer Anzon.

Nexus has given its merger push some muscle by first securing a 10.9 per cent stake in Anzon through on-market share purchases and in a share swap with Norway's Viking, a shareholder in both Nexus and Anzon.

The aggressive move by Nexus seeks to pre-empt what might come from the formal process Anzon has under way to allow potential bidders for the company access to a "data room".

Companies rumoured to have made it on to Anzon's shortlist of potential bidders include Santos, Origin, AWE and ARC Energy. But while they might have access to the data room, they do so knowing that Nexus has now acquired a potential "blocking" stake to their full-ownership ambitions.

But Nexus is not in the box seat either. Anzon is 53 per cent owned by Anzon Energy, a company listed on the alternative Investment Market in London. It will be the king-maker in any shoot-out for Anzon.

In revealing its strategic 10.9 per cent Anzon stake yesterday, Nexus did not mention any merger intentions. But that is believed to be the case, with the pressure now on Anzon to first allow Nexus to undertake due diligence before it commits to a binding offer.

Nexus's merger ambitions reverse the situation last year when Anzon made a hostile takeover bid for the Melbourne group. That bid failed and has left Anzon with a residual holding in Nexus of 12.5 per cent, second to Viking with 15 per cent plus the Nexus shares it gets in its swap for Viking's Anzon shares.

Anzon is the manager and 40 per cent partner in the BMG oil project in Bass Strait, originally developed 50:50 with Beach Petroleum. They each recently sold 10 per cent stakes to Japan's Itochu Corp. That deal implied a 100 per cent value for the BMG project of $1.23 billion.

The BMG stake comes with exposure to an as-yet untapped gas resource that has growing appeal because of the sharp rise in gas prices on the eastern seaboard.

Nexus is developing the Longtom gas project in Bass Strait. Nexus also has a big exposure to the expected development boom in liquefied natural gas projects in the Browse Basin.

[karlos885] 24/9/2007 11:39

and at these prices so i would guess a bid would be at quite big premuim to current share price. It seens as if a bidding war is definitely developing.

[smudgeroo] 24/9/2007 10:41

So according to the above, NXS were not invited to the open day last week to view the companies books and other confidential data.

NXS got the hump and therefore decided to purchase 10.91% of AZA to make it harder for other companies make an offer.

So if NXS have decided to start buying heavily into AZA and as a consequence reduce the number of shares freely available to other suitors could it be at all feasible that AEL may well end up as a bid target itself as a way for other preditors to take a large stake in AZA?

Interesting times indeed.

[smudgeroo] 24/9/2007 10:31

Also from HotCopper down under:

"NXS missed out on an invitation to the engine room. Therefore, they're taking there own steps to become involved.

The 4 invited guests apparently signed an agreement that no shares are to be purchased whilst negotiating."

[smudgeroo] 24/9/2007 10:30

Well we now know who was responsible for the large trades that went through in Oz last week.



"Nexus Energy Limited ("Nexus") has acquired a relevant interest of 40.4 million shares in Anzon Australia Limited ("Anzon"). This strategic stake represents 10.91% of the current issued capital of Anzon.

The relevant interest of 10.91% has been acquired via on-market purchases and an off-market exchange of Nexus shares for Anzon shares.

The on-market purchase of 26.8 million shares was acquired at a volume weighted average price of just under $1.69 per share.

The off-market acquisition of 13.6 million shares from a subsidiary of Viking Shipping Limited ("Viking") in exchange for shares in Nexus based on an exchange ratio of 1.1 Nexus shares for 1 Anzon share.

The off-market acquisition of 13.6 million shares from Viking was acquired in two tranches: tranche one being the unconditional agreement to purchase 10.9 million shares and tranche two being the agreement to purchase 2.7 million shares which is conditional on FIRB approval."

[karlos885] 21/9/2007 13:46

'masif' spread mm's dot want any more buyers?

[cleo1601] 21/9/2007 11:31

Smudge
I look forward to reading the results of your labours if you are prepared to share them. I'll even log on from my holiday in the hope of doing so! It's just not something I'm capable of doing myself or I'd have a crack at it as I think it's likely to be important

[smudgeroo] 21/9/2007 10:59

Re: price expectations... please don't take my word for it. All my comments are purely my own opinion. Always proves to do your own research and make your decisions upon that.

[smudgeroo] 21/9/2007 10:57

Knowing what the MM's are like here in the UK I would say probably back to where we started should no bid materialise.

Remember a profit is not a profit until it is banked. Should the price here move above £1.20 I may topslice a few myself.

[jonno1] 21/9/2007 10:49

OK ta, and the downside...?

[smudgeroo] 21/9/2007 10:44

Jonno,

I believe we will see a formal bid being made within the next few weeks but that could just be the start of things to come.

[smudgeroo] 21/9/2007 10:42

You raise a good question Cleo. Obviously there is a top price that people are willing to pay but what that is likely to be I wouldn't want to guess.

Should I get a moment over the weekend I shall take a look at the current assets in more detail and try and relate them to other takeover valuations that have occured in the past. Should keep me busy for a while ;o)

[jonno1] 21/9/2007 10:39

when would a takeover if it happens likely take place?, are we talking days, weeks, months here do you think?