Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[greyingsurfer] 28/8/2015 10:24

3 billion dollars talkman @ $3 a 1000c/f. Sorry 2.25 billion @75%.

That is the potential revenue from producing that amount, at $3mmscf.

However, that's rather different to the "value" of it, by which I'd assume most would mean the current value, or what you might be able to sell a discovered field for. That would be a lot less, since that revenue would stretch over perhaps 20 years or more and there would be opex and capex involved over that period. Even $1mmscf is probably stretching it. Would still have significant value to a company the size of AEX, even if they only had say 20% interest left after a farmouts.

Peter

[edgar222] 28/8/2015 10:03

Talkman

The other point here is that there is a new pipeline so the route to market is quick.

Not like offshore which will take years and cost billions for LNG trains

[talkman2] 28/8/2015 09:55

If it was just $1 this would be worth £486 million ( 20p )
$2 would be double ( 40p )
$3 would be triple (60p ).

Are my calculations correct.

That's just 1 tcf at Rumuva. The whole portfolio could have 5tcf plus.

No wonder a major financing house is interested in funding AEX !

[gerryjames] 28/8/2015 09:34

Technically correct if 3 was the price. Oil has a price in the ground, gas doesn't. It'll depend on the future domestic supply/ demand to set a value.

[skinwalker] 28/8/2015 09:30

are those funny-money dollars Gerry?

[gerryjames] 28/8/2015 09:21

3 billion dollars talkman @ $3 a 1000c/f. Sorry 2.25 billion @75%.

[talkman2] 28/8/2015 09:16

Could someone give me a value to AEX of a 1 TCF gas find at Rumuva ( where it holds 75% ) ? Would be very interested to have an idea on the potential upside here . Thanks.

[blackgold00] 28/8/2015 06:53

there you go foolsandcows.



Director's Message

"It gives me great pleasure to welcome you, on behalf of the Board of Directors, Management and TPDC Staff to our Website. TPDC is undergoing massive reform aimed at making TPDC a stronger National Oil Company (NOC) operating for the interest of the Nation. The new TPDC will participate fully in upstream operations as well as downstream operations through its subsidiaries. At TPDC, we have a vision to become a global competitive company and a key player in the Oil and Gas industry both regionally and internationally. It is along these lines we have decided to revamp our website to give our readers relevant and updated information in the Oil and Gas subsector. I hope you will find this website useful."

— Managing Director, Dr. J. P. Mataragio

[blackgold00] 27/8/2015 19:30

i don't know, not paid their bills? : ) no, i think you will find we have a new TPDC since the passing of the new Petroleum Bill, bestowing on them a new mandate and so maybe a shiny new web site to go with it.

(TPDC) Awards CGG Airborne Gravity Gradiometer surveys -



"Early this month the Parliament of the United Republic of Tanzania passed a new Petroleum Bill, which will be signed soon. Under the new Petroleum Bill, TPDC is now lawfully recognized as a National Oil Company (NOC). The NOC will participate fully in Exploration and Production of Oil and Gas and this campaign in particular signifies the commercial commencement of NOC in E&P activities in Tanzania. - See more at: hxxp://globenewswire.com/news-release/2015/07/21/753674/10142416/en/CGG-Tanzania-Petroleum-Development-Corporation-TPDC-Awards-CGG-Airborne-Gravity-Gradiometer-surveys.html#sthash.rt2XpEXF.dpuf"

[foolsandcows] 27/8/2015 19:24

hxxp://www.tpdc-tz.com/

Account Suspended - I wonder why?

[blackgold00] 27/8/2015 19:21

yes i think you are right warbaby, tackling the (financial issues on two fronts) and i believe this paragraph from the half yearly is indicating just that.

"With the Company financed through to first Tanzanian production and in the final stages of planning for a new well to appraise the Ntorya-1 discovery, Aminex is prioritising the repayment of its remaining corporate debt, which will be accelerated in the event that Solo exercises its option to acquire a further interest in Kiliwani North. As previously reported, the Company is in discussions with a major financial institution to arrange longer term funding for its Tanzanian work programme".

[skinwalker] 27/8/2015 19:12

warbaby 53579
one doesn't "arrange longer term funding options".
One either arranges longer term funding, or discusses longer term funding options.
Where did you find this?

[warbaby43] 27/8/2015 18:39

"As previously reported, the Company is in discussions with a major financial institution to arrange longer term funding options for its Tanzanian work programme. Aminex continues to review alternative financing options to enable the repayment or refinancing of the corporate loan. Solo Oil plc retains the option to acquire another 6.5% interest in Kiliwani North for $3.5 million within thirty days of the Kiliwani North Gas Sales Agreement being signed"

Which seems to indicate that there are two financing exercises underway. One to fund Ruvuma development and a separate one to take care of sorting out Argo. I also note that the "substantial financial group" from the 4th June RNS has morphed into a "major financial institution." Would Gemini meet either of those two descriptions?

Also worth recalling that the 4th June RNS indicated that the facility would "not be conditional on signature of the GSA or commencement of production." As that was very nearly 3 months ago and the negotiations would by then have been well advanced, that piece of big news might come along any day now.

[liquid millionaire] 27/8/2015 17:04

edgar222 27 Aug'15 - 15:44 - 53576 of 53577 1 0

LM

People already here really don't need any more of me cut and pasted from elsewhere !



Ooh yes they do....lol!

[blackgold00] 27/8/2015 16:29

ngms "Look to return when plans are confirmed for Ruvuma drills, which I think will be after dilution / erosion of some share holder value thus I expect to get back in below what I sell for."

ngms, when you say "after dilution" you mean a placing of sorts, yes? so you don't think then that Aminex will be successful with the "Ongoing discussions with financial institution for provision of development capital for Ruvuma and restructuring current debt facility".

I don,t know what the BOD with all their skin in the game will think of all that dilution, I reckon Aminex will need to raise $20 million approx, to drill N-2 and N-3 plus clear the current debt, so a placing set at say 2p, would amount roughly to a 50% share dilution.

[edgar222] 27/8/2015 15:44

LM

People already here really don't need any more of me cut and pasted from elsewhere !

[liquid millionaire] 27/8/2015 12:14

AEX



edgar222 27 Aug'15 - 11:40 - 44042 of 44046 1 0

7 Russell

Try Aminex. News Coming soon.

Sorry for off topic

rossannan 27 Aug'15 - 11:50 - 44043 of 44046 1 0

I've been in AEX and SOLO for months and they keep telling us that the Tanzania news is coming soon! This time they really mean it apparently...

edgar222 27 Aug'15 - 11:54 - 44044 of 44046 1 0

I have been in Aminex for years (sob) and what you say is right.

BUT the stumbling block to the Gas Sales Agreement that will transform everything has been removed and we KNOW this because the Tanzanian Government have set up a payment guarantee system with Maurel et Prom / Wentworth. That's a first and means they now have a guarantee system in place.

That's the last stumbling block to Aminex / Solo GSA.

Sales following soon after the contract.

Re-rate.

Then a drill year end / Jan 2016 targeting "1-2 TCF" (TRILLION) of gas according to Neil Ritson.

[last throw] 27/8/2015 11:44

ngms27

You have a 50% chance of being right - maybe more on AEX's past history.

That said, I get a feeling that this time IF there is a fallback in the share price it won't be as great as historically and could provide the opportunity for ii's to come aboard, which in turn should push the price northwards.

I respect your stated intentions for selling - OK I know you might be kidding on that point but who's to care? - and you may be right, but I'm keeping my 16+ million until at least the end of March 2016 when there is a slight chance that I'll need some readies ...... it'll be interesting to see at that time what, say 500,000, will realise.

I am guessing £30k which will make me a very happy bunny!

LT

[edgar222] 27/8/2015 11:31

Yes, Gerry I agree.

But we are talking about a bounce to 4p.

In a year from now (assuming things go to plan, Hah Hah)4p will be long past.

[ngms27] 27/8/2015 11:22

I'm expecting a spike above 2.5p and hopefully beyond 3p as the news has been a long time coming and will be very material.

Then I'm outta here for a while.

[gerryjames] 27/8/2015 11:19

First revenue should see a meaningful bounce, surely. Soon, given the indications. Can't be that "baked in".

[edgar222] 27/8/2015 10:38

I am not expecting the market spike on payment protection and GSA news.

I am expecting the market spike on news of drilling 1-2 TCF prospects. Ritson says that's December, Aminex says its Q1 2016.

I am also expecting improvement in the balance sheet to have an impact. Getting rid of the going concern statements and showing AEX as debt free with an income (and more income to come on N1-3 hook up) will have a huge effect on risk analysis.

So am not sure we will get spike but steady climb, I hope. Of course it may feel like a spike at the time! But if all this happens as discussed and N2 is successful in appraising, proving and then GSA and selling we will be in a very different share price position in a year.

IMHO. Blah blah.

[gerryjames] 27/8/2015 10:04

Just a point on managing expectations, it's clear that sentiment towards Tanzania's governance of their assets is low. Evidenced by Wentworths poor reaction to $3 x 80k p/d by year end. However if the new payment systems work this will change with time and investment follow. Perhaps what more bullish posters forget to factor in when judging others is the legacy of disappointment. Not the board's fault...although back to managing expectations as WB states.