Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[jacks13] 18/8/2015 10:49

An imminent rumour is the best sort of rumour.

[bunbooster2] 18/8/2015 10:45

Has anyone heard any rumours?

[ngms27] 17/8/2015 10:00

Well they cannot drill until they get a variation of the license given Ntorya appraisal was required by July 31st 2015 in the current license terms.

[greyingsurfer] 17/8/2015 09:56

Farm out would offer no dilution to shareholders and has to be the preferred option.

Dilution would perhaps need to be 50% so extremely painful

That would depend on several factors. Most importantly the details of a farmout. A placing that doubled the size of the share register could prove to be less of a dilution of existing shareholders assets than a farmout that gave away over 75% of Ntorya. Not saying either will happen, but it doesn't have to follow that a placing is a worse deal than a farmout. In practice either is likely to be a better deal for shareholders than not going forward with Ntorya.

Peter

[skinwalker] 17/8/2015 08:44

well I don't see an oil-price rebound any time soon! We're awash with the stuff and economic growth in China and Brazil for example is stalling. Cheap oil and petrol is here to stay

[haggismchaggis] 17/8/2015 07:39

AEX/SOLO have said that the oil price has impacted the cost and usage of drilling rigs including in Africa. There is a glut of spare rigs and they will be dirt cheap. That is the reason they have decided to fast track the development of Ntorya, to get the dirt cheap rig price before oil prices rebound.

[vike1] 16/8/2015 21:23

If you believe the comments that NR said last week at the Solo AGM, there has been no interest from farm-in-ees, so I think that's off the table for now. Drilling will be RBL or equity funded are the options, or take it slow and fund from KN-1 Cash Flows.

[ngms27] 16/8/2015 14:37

Farm out would offer no dilution to shareholders and has to be the preferred option.Dilution would perhaps need to be 50% so extremely painful

[edgar222] 16/8/2015 09:09

Have to say I took the Ntorya appraisal reference from Ritson as verbal shorthand not necessarily excluding a sidetrack.If the sidetrack AND further appraisal were by year end that would imply a funding confidence that I am tantalised about. Hope its self fund and not farmout, as discussed many many months ago.

[warbaby43] 16/8/2015 08:20

Agreed rich2006, given the absence of infrastructure in Tanzania, the cost of simply getting a rig on site upcountry must be a wholly disproportionate element of the total, which was another reason to welcome the sidetrack. If they can't afford two main drills, then at least one and a half makes more economic sense than one.

There is also another factor which has occurred to me since, which is the emphasis placed by JB at around 2.54 in his Miss Blondie interview @ 53062 on "the very large inventory of equipment (at N-1) that we are planning to utilize (for the sidetrack)" This would plainly reduce costs substantially, so multiple reasons in the AEX view, at least, for the sidetrack, not least, too, greyingsurfer's point about the possibility of it counting towards the partnership's multiple drilling obligations.

All the more puzzling then is the absence of any mention of the sidetrack by NR, not a man known for under-egging the pudding. However, we do know that he is communicative, so if anyone has his e mail address or Twitter moniker, perhaps they would like to put the point to him.

[rich2006] 15/8/2015 22:42

Anyone know of any other drills taking place near to N2 as
I can't see it being cheap to mobilise a rig for a side track
Or even 1 new well

[greyingsurfer] 15/8/2015 21:11

Indeed, what occurred to me is that it might all come down, as it usually does, to a matter of brass and to the shortage thereof and even though N-1S might be considerably cheaper as well as having a higher CoS, the priority had to be to put the available funds into drilling the really big prize, N-2.

One of the big issues we don't know the answer to here is would N-1S satisfy the licence requirements for an appraisal. If it would, and funds are tight then the case for drilling it first may be very strong.

Peter

[dan_the_epic] 15/8/2015 20:33

Results next week.

Another chance to feel disgusted by a horrible balance sheet.

lol.

[last throw] 15/8/2015 19:49

warbaby

Thanks for that interpretation - it'll be interesting to learn what Aminex's next release has to say about this ...... got a feeling we won't be waiting long this time!!!!

LT

[warbaby43] 15/8/2015 12:25

Thank you Impvesta and edgar222 and herewith the link to edgar's Proactive NR interview which makes no mention of Ntorya but is largely focussed on Kiliwani so far as Solo's Tanzanian assets are concerned.

[...]

In the BRR very brief interview, while it was amusing to hear that word "imminent" being used again in respect of Kiliwani, it was particularly interesting to note that, in contrast to JB's recent media encounters, NR makes no mention at all of a N-1 sidetrack.

Instead, this:

"shortly after that (the Kiliwani kick off) we'll be announcing the drilling of an appraisal well at our Ntorya discovery and we hope to have that drilling done by the end of this year which should give some very encouraging results."

Looking back over my notes of the recent JB interviews, there can be little doubt that at that time, he saw a N-1 sidetrack preceding the N-2 appraisal drill which might seem to indicate either a difference of view between the partners or that matters might have changed since 25th June.

Indeed, what occurred to me is that it might all come down, as it usually does, to a matter of brass and to the shortage thereof and even though N-1S might be considerably cheaper as well as having a higher CoS, the priority had to be to put the available funds into drilling the really big prize, N-2.

If N-2 does prove to be as successful as they plainly hope, then that will probably then determine the nature and scale of the infrastructure required to incorporate Ntorya into the Tanzanian gas system as well as propelling them forward to a Development Licence. (Though, even more hopefully from my point of view, it might also provide the catalyst for the takeover bid.)

PS My link to the Proactive interview is being blocked and presumably edgar222 had the same experience. No problems with Proactive links before, though.

[edgar222] 15/8/2015 08:09

Thanks, Impvesta.There is another longer one from proactive and only listened to it until he moved off Aminex related assets. Dont think there was anything new.Back to UK soon!

[dfgo] 14/8/2015 18:22

from advfn today
23 2.0 2418470 O Y 2.0 2.15 17:15:08 2,418,470 419,419 1,256,421 2,905,981

from mxneyam today
13-08-15 12:56:52 2.0000 2,418,470 O 1.6000 3.5000 ? 0 0

[skinwalker] 14/8/2015 17:07

don't worry ngms. The Kimmeridge Cuckoo (aka the Nodding Donkey)has a brain the size of a flea, and always gets the wrong end of the stick.

[impvesta] 14/8/2015 12:38

edgar222 - post 53320

Here is the (brief) interview with Neil Ritson which you were unable to link to from your sun lounger:

[bunbooster2] 14/8/2015 10:10

Thanks for WRL conf notes, Vike1.

[ngms27] 14/8/2015 09:21

Trader?

I haven't bought or sold any Aminex in over 12 months now.

[last throw] 14/8/2015 08:47

ngms + admitted de-ramping from a self-confessed trader = moron.

LT