Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[blackgold00] 26/8/2015 16:20

No Ntorya- 3.

"The newly-designated Ntorya-3 well will be drilled in the main channel. Both the Ntorya-2 and Ntorya-3 wells are expected to test additional exploration targets in addition to appraising the priority Cretaceous gas sand discovery. The Company continues to work on financing solutions for its drilling programme in Ruvuma and the new data and well planning are assisting this process. "

The Ntorya-2 well already had its location designated.

"Ntorya-2, located just west and up-dip of Ntorya-1, is expected to be spudded in Q1 2016"

[ngms27] 26/8/2015 16:16

You meant Ntorya-2 ;)

[blackgold00] 26/8/2015 16:13

as I read it the Ntorya-3 well is now being drilled instead of the side-track well.?

"Aminex has identified a target close to the existing Ntorya-1 discovery which was assessed as a potential side-track well to the Ntorya-1 well. After review with Norwell, the location will now be drilled as a vertical well from a different surface location so as to reduce drilling risk. Ntorya-2, located just west and up-dip of Ntorya-1, is expected to be spudded in Q1 2016. The newly-designated Ntorya-3 well will be drilled in the main channel."

[edgar222] 26/8/2015 16:02

Ritson interview on proactive talks about the distinction between N2 and N3.

It is N3 that is targeting the really big numbers, he says. But GSA and production can happen after N2.

They are going to increase their interest in KN1.

N2 and N3 targeting "1-2 TCF"

[edgar222] 26/8/2015 15:59

Malcy



Aminex

Its been a hard graft but it does look like Aminex are close to delivering first gas from Kiliwani North ‘within the current quarter’ after a long wait. They say that the Kiliwani North GSA is expected in the ‘near future’ and if all goes well they will get under way with the appraisal programme at Ntorya. As I said recently I am hoping to get an update with Jay before long and will report back after that. - See more at: hxxp://www.malcysblog.com/2015/08/oil-price-cape-andes-energia-aminex-sundry-schlumberger-nostrumtethys-faroe-igas-circle-and-finally/#sthash.ZhagDVpP.dpuf

[greyingsurfer] 26/8/2015 15:58

I take it from the 50% increase in production levels that Tanzania do have the demand to fill and that JB prefers to get the max cash out of KN1 ASAP rather than worry about its longevity.

Far too simplistic.

As they've made clear there has been a lot of data processing and modelling going on between you trying to teach BH to suck eggs 2 years ago and where we are now. What's clear is that the results of that are that they now believe optimal return from the well can be achieved at higher flow rates than the original conservative assumption.

We don't know exactly what variables have gone into the decision. It's possible that the importance of early cash flow has played a part, as ngms suggests, but I'd think the most likely explanation is simply that 30mmscfd is now thought to produce optimal total return - which will include consideration of total recovery and allowance for discounting of future cash flows.

Peter

[edgar222] 26/8/2015 15:46

Ritson (2)

[...]

hxxp://www.proactive investors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/4091/solo-oil-entering-home-straight-at-kiliwani-north-says-ritson-4091.html

[ngms27] 26/8/2015 14:32

Don't talk silly.
The best economics are produced when a well is managed correctly.
A badly managed well can reduce total production by 75%

I would think AEX have studied this long and hard and might have come to some kind of compromise given the lack of cash.

[haggismchaggis] 26/8/2015 14:25

I emailed BH 2 years ago and suggested we could produce more that the 20mmcfd he was proposing. He replied that they were going for that level to ensure longevity of the well. Since JB has taken over they are going to do what I suggested. I take it from the 50% increase in production levels that Tanzania do have the demand to fill and that JB prefers to get the max cash out of KN1 ASAP rather than worry about its longevity. When NT2 comes on stream it should dwarf KN1 so there's no need to worry about the longevity of KN1, hence it makes sense to pump as much gas as possible as early as possible.

[jacks13] 26/8/2015 14:02

Yes, but is the 6p based on technicals or fundamentals? I'd much prefer it to be the latter; more likely to then kick on to 10p. Anyway good luck to Zak's prediction!

[edgar222] 26/8/2015 13:24

My point being we WANT the herd to arrive.

If fair value is 6p in October the herd might push it to 8p !

[edgar222] 26/8/2015 13:22

Could not agree more.

But the relevance of it is that THOUSANDS follow him and if he is talking about Aminex then that has to be good.

BTW in late spring he said Aminex re-rate in autumn.

[jacks13] 26/8/2015 13:10

Why do 'respected' chartists peddle this nonsense? The immediate future of the Aminex share price has nothing to do with squiggly lines and everything to do with the delivery of a signed GSA at a sensible tariff.

Perhaps Zak is playing a canny game. Good GSA news will project the share price northwards and Zak will be able to bask in his status as the chartists' oracle; and of course recruit a few new innocents amongst his followers.

[lfdkmp] 26/8/2015 13:06

Good old Zak. I interpret that to mean he thinks it's going up.

Why use one word when one hundred will suffice.

[edgar222] 26/8/2015 12:57

Zak Mir


Given the way that for many traders and investors in the small caps space, patience is certainly at a premium, the fact that it has been required over the recent past at Aminex rather undermines the bull argument. However, at least from a technical perspective it is the case that this stock remains in the frame on a charting basis for the longs. The key driver on the daily chart in this respect is the way that it is possible to draw a rising trend channel from as long ago as the beginning of this year. The main plus point as far as this channel is concerned is the way it fits the price action for 2015 so well, with the support line now running at 1.9p. This should provide a reliable stop loss point for those looking to run the shares higher, especially after the extended consolidation we have seen since the December probe below 1.6p and the subsequent higher support above this level for April.

This leads us to the present position where we have a break above both the 50 day and 200 day moving averages, with the idea being that a decent weekly close above these key technical features should be enough to cement the base building process here, and lead to a decent foray to the upside. Just how high Aminex could stretch is currently indicated by the area of the top of the 2015 price channel heading as high as 2.8p – also the area of the early resistance this year. At this stage only a weekly close back below the 1.9p zone would really delay the upside scenario .

[skinwalker] 26/8/2015 10:38

I see the share price is responding positively to all this wonderful news.

[dfgo] 26/8/2015 09:29

edgar222

AEX also have route to market for gas sales.

from RNS

The key to unlocking the commercial potential for these opportunities is the new, common-user gas pipeline which runs from the south of Tanzania to Dar es Salaam.

The pipeline and associated facilities are likely to become operational during Q3 2015 and will provide a means of marketing any further gas discoveries at Ruvuma through a gas sales agreement with the TDPC.

[edgar222] 26/8/2015 09:25

Ah ok missed it. Thank you.

Feeling more positive than I have for a while.

We know it is not just more words because the Wentworth GSA is sorted and the Tz govt actually now has a payment protection system.

Loving the N2 plan, just hope they can do N2, N3, L2 and Namisange in one rig booking.

N2 targeting 1 TCF. That is huge for a company this size. With a pipeline right there.

I would buy more but I am already beyond "all in".

Going for a lie down.

[blackgold00] 26/8/2015 09:21

yes it does edgar222




"Following an engineering review, it is anticipated that a sustained production rate of up to 30 MMcfd, higher than previously"

[edgar222] 26/8/2015 09:07

Solo's announcement talks of 30mm cf pd from KN1.

Aminex' does not (I believe). So revenues may be a bit higher than we have all been calculating.

The drill programme is N2, N3 which are exploration of other leads as well as appraisal. Likonde 2 and Namisange 1 are exploration.

[edgar222] 26/8/2015 08:55

Progress. Real progress.

GSA and sales this quarter (ie. by end September). My reading of it is GSA more quickly and any day.

N2 not a sidetrack. Spudding Q1 2016. N3 designated for the main channel.

Solo money of 3.5m reduced the debt by 3.28m. Still in talks with funders.

Hoping to bring on N1 N2 and N3 into production quickly.

Likonde and Namisange drills are exploration. N2 and N3 are appraisal and targeting 1TCF, which is enormous.

[gerryjames] 26/8/2015 07:37

They could go well to-day Solo on the Weald Basin update...for a while anyway.