Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[gerryjames] 10/8/2015 15:02

We could speculate about it's future.

[bunbooster2] 10/8/2015 13:48

warbaby - thanks for the cricket article. It's a great sport.

[bunbooster2] 10/8/2015 13:47

PJ1 - I sense some Gallic ancestry. We'll see who wins the war.

.... *sob, sob, sob* * denial* ...

[warbaby43] 10/8/2015 13:09

Sometimes the Tanzania media surprises. Very topical and only for for those interested, herewith the best summary of the chronology of cricket I've ever seen:

[pj 1] 10/8/2015 12:56

Never quit Bun, just rememebr there are more ways than one to skin a cat. Cut your losers, run your winners. Works every time. Need to win the war not every Battle

[bunbooster2] 10/8/2015 12:33

You're a quitter PJ.

[pj 1] 10/8/2015 12:21

Jacks
Rememeber ARGO have a 'floating charge' which effectively allows them to an extent to pick any assets, and also gives them the power to appoint a specific Administrator. A deal could, theoretically, be done without AEX knowing as default approaches.

Im not for a minute saying that will happen, as ARGO has supported to date, But coupled with the lack of 'support' currently from the Tanz Govm. then its more than enough red flags to keep me well away.

Incidently after bailing out here my overall portfolio is well up since February. Just something else for you to think about as you wait, what gains are you missing out on elsewhere? At least food for thought I hope

Good luck!

[blackgold00] 10/8/2015 11:56

not so good over a 5 year timeframe, but guess who comes out on top over a 3 year period. between AEX, OPHR, TWL, PMO, SIA

[extrader] 07/8/2015 13:24

Hi BunBooster2,

I'd rather an 'auspicious' curve, myself, if it's all the same to you !

ATB

[bunbooster2] 07/8/2015 12:34

Quite a suspicious curve in the share price chart today.

[blackgold00] 07/8/2015 08:21

(Wentworth Resources Ltd Wentworth Resources Limited : Invitation To Conference Call For Second Quarter 2015 Financial Results)

[duxy786] 07/8/2015 08:03

Wow....625k buy yest. Yet 40k sell takes us down. Mm's taking d pi $$ out of PIs

[blackgold00] 06/8/2015 20:24

warbaby, until Orca successfully completes the work-over program of the Songo field, production can still decline, especially if SS-4 well has to be suspended

this from their 2012 AR Songo Songo deliverability



"As at 31 December 2012, the Company had a production capacity of approximately 113 MMcfd, restricted to 102 MMcfd by the available infrastructure. The new production well SS-11 was successfully brought on stream on 3rd October 2012 and is currently producing approximately 38 MMcfd. As planned SS-9, which was producing approximately 30 MMcfd, has been suspended.
The Company has also permanently suspended SS-3 as a result of production tubing integrity issues and rising casing annulus pressures. The condition of SS-4 is being monitored and it may have to be suspended in the future.
The Company plans to make up the production shortfall with additional volumes from SS-10 and SS-11. As a result no material change in field production levels of approximately 98 MMcfd is currently anticipated."

and this from their 2015 Q1



SONGO SONGO DELIVERABILITY

"As at 31 March 2015, the Company had a field productive capacity of approximately 88 MMcfd, with the expansion of production volumes limited to 102 MMcfd by the available Songas infrastructure. Production wells SS-3, SS-5 and SS-9 remain suspended pending workovers. SS-4 continues to be monitored and may have to be suspended in the future. See “Contractual Obligations and Committed Capital Investment”.

[vike1] 06/8/2015 17:27

My guess is a GSA signing end-August / early-Sept so that CCM can make good on their promise to deliver reliable energy over the election period. It's not something they can do a week or two before the election date and expect to squeeze political capital out of it, so pressure is on to deliver now.

It seems all the ingredients are in place, though I do appreciate that such payment guarantees across several banks and NGOs are complicated deals to work through.

[warbaby43] 06/8/2015 14:01

I certainly hope, greyingsurfer, that you are right and that my misgivings are unjustified and KN-1 does finally come on stream hitch-free, no later than October.

Meanwhile, as the resident Orca watcher can blackgold00 indicate the extent of any drop off in their Songo Songo production.

[ngms27] 06/8/2015 09:03

Haggis,

For the record I'm still invested and will sell into a spike when the GSA is announced. I'm lucky having bought back in very close to the lows.

Read what greyingsurfer has posted around the CURRENT demand. Doubtless they will ramp up gas demand as thats the raison-d'etre for the pipeline project. The question is when as this will likely determine when if any of AEX's gas is actually required.

As it happens I've been pessimistic on both the signing of the GSA and when there will be demand for the gas. Guess what, I've been proven correct.

Next

[greyingsurfer] 06/8/2015 08:56

With regard to the Wentworth point, while I'm sure the T government do want to see the switch to gas asap there does have to be either new gas burning plant commissioned or existing plant converted to gas burn.

What that misses, WB, is that there is existing unused gas generating capacity, plus K-1 due to be commissioned this month. Together those account for about 80mmscfd, so will absorb all of M&P's production alone. In addition Orca production continues to fall and there is existing industrial use that is constrained in growth by supply.

Peter

[blackgold00] 05/8/2015 22:29

Amen to that, and good night

[warbaby43] 05/8/2015 22:08

Greyingsurfer, much as I respect your views and pay close attention to your postings, I'm afraid "Your Eminence" or indeed "Your Imminence" would be rather overdoing it. As it is, the latter is the rather appropriate sobriquet bestowed by LDFKP on our Jay following his injudicious use of the word "imminent" for the arrival of the GSA.

With regard to the Wentworth point, while I'm sure the T government do want to see the switch to gas asap there does have to be either new gas burning plant commissioned or existing plant converted to gas burn.

As it is, thinking about it a bit more, perhaps it is possible that the recent media piece indicating a delay till October for what was described as new Songo Songo gas coming on stream, is to give them a further two months to get sufficient gas burn plant ready to utilize this new supply.

With regard to jacks13's funding point, there was that RNS of 4th June along with Jay's repeated emphasis in his recent interviews of the "very supportive lender" who has been alongside them since their Aminex arrival. Majedie/SL, at least, appear to be persuaded.

And Bunbooster2, I don't know about closing our eyes but don't all AEX holders close our hands in prayer and hope for the best at least until we get to the other side of Ntorya-2.

[haggismchaggis] 05/8/2015 21:53

ngms talks sh1te. He must have sold out again. The cretin.Some people are good at cut and paste but not that great at research. Kinyerezi I is in at 150MW, Kinyerezi II will generate 240MW and be online in December. Kinyerezi III part one is also due to come online by the end of 2015 for another 150MW, part two by mid 2016 taking it up to 300MW. Kinyerezi IV should also be online this year (June/July) for another 450MW.Other projects coming along include 600MW at Mtwara, 320MW at Somanga Fungu in Lindi, 250MW at Mkuranga and 200MW at Zinga.Tanzania can already produce 1500MW but oil power will be replaced by gas power.The gas will also be used by industry and domestic users. Stand-alone diesel generators, of which there are hundreds, will be removed. Apart from its own power needs, Tanzania will sell gas to other countries and upwards of 300MW of power, so the only limit to the amount of gas going through the pipe is it's physical limit.

[bunbooster2] 05/8/2015 21:19

"Bunbooster2 and blackgold00 have always been much more bullsish on this issue and no doubt they will be able to argue my scepticism is unjustified."

warbaby -

The best way to approach it is how I taught my children to cross busy roads. Close your eyes, march forward briskly shouting LA LA LA as loud as you can, then open them after a bit and you should be on the other side.

[greyingsurfer] 05/8/2015 19:14

Hi WB,

I do continue to have reservations as to whether there will be current gas powered electricity plant capacity demand to utilize new supply from Kiliwani. His Imminence and others bang on about new gas supply being desperately demanded by the government but there needs to be either new or converted electricity plant of adequate capacity to make use of such additional resource.

Not sure quite who "His Imminence" is, and since the person I'd have thought you might mean doesn't post here, that kind of puts me in the firing line, which I'd object to (as no doubt would the OP).

To answer your point, you are missing a key issue. There is a current shortage of gas without any new generation capacity.

For example from Wentworth's finals earlier this year: Tanzania Electricity Supply Company Limited (”TANESCO̶1;), is faced with having to pay for expensive emergency generation to supply electric power to the national grid and the commercial capital, Dar es Salaam. It is estimated that TANESCO is paying between US$0.35 to US$0.55 per kWh for emergency power while the current retail tariff is approximately US$0.16 per kWh. The Government of Tanzania plans to replace the emergency power generation with existing gas fired power generation facilities utilizing natural gas

It's true it's difficult to know exactly what demand will be, and when Kinyerezi 1 will fire up, but, they are talking running initially on jet fuel and using gas as soon as they can get it. Clearly M&P/Wentworth are going to be supplying gas to the pipeline first, and there may well be an understandable reluctance to sign a take or pay deal for KN-1 until they know the sytems are all working and the mothballed capacity is working OK, and possibly K-1 running and tested, it is apparently due for commissioning this month. That may produce delays into the autumn, I wouldn't be greatly surprised, but short of major problems, I can't see TPDC not wanting the gas from KN-1 by then.

Peter

[jacks13] 05/8/2015 18:15

Although Aminex have insufficient earnings and cash to meet the Argo debt repayment in January I don't think that Argo will force them into administration at that time. The process of extending the loan settlement date will continue until the day finally arrives when gas is being sold from Kiliwani. Any such extensions will come at a cost though, as we know!

The more likely threat is the loss of licences through none performance; and performance currently hinges on fresh placings unless the GSA logjam is broken and Kiliwani starts to earn its keep. And even if there is no GSA in the foreseeable future Argo would probably be prepared to stump up additional cash for exploration and a modest amount of drilling to protect the licences and its own investment.

A signed GSA would relieve the pressure though, not least because Solo would stump up for their option and any share price spike upwards would probably be followed by another share placing.

There has to be a limit though on the length of time things can be drawn out. If the TPDC won't sign a GSA which includes a payment protection clause and Aminex won't deliver gas without the protection the likely loser will surely be Aminex.

[ngms27] 05/8/2015 17:11

They may let it idle long enough to get a regime change....
i.e. AEX go bust or bought, bust must only be months away without further funding.