Active Risk Share Discussion Threads

[kindl] 21/12/2001 00:11

BDUBS
The stock appears to be trending 286 -327. To confirm the reversal of the current down trend we must see the trading range rise above 327. If not a break below 293 will occur and continue the down trend. One could trade this stock within a trade wi a possible return of 12.5%ish.
Fibonacci retracement at 38% (286.)is another important indicator. If the stock falls below the 38.2% retracement (calculated from the previous up trend starting in 2000 Jan) then the next level would be at 50% ie.228.15 with a time frame of about 2 month.

What is your view, as you have been a consistant contributor to this stock

[limpsfield chartist] 06/12/2001 09:28

Some more insitutional stuff recently:

ARRIVA plc

29 November 2001

ARRIVA plc (the "Company")


The Company received notification on 29 November 2001 that FMR Corporation has a notifiable interest in 14,299,738 ordinary shares in the Company representing 6.96% of the issued share capital.



Chart still looks good - I am looking for 370 first target.

[bdubs] 03/12/2001 18:46

Sorry, I have just noticed that '4 million' in my last posting should read 14 million! Oh, and I can spell 'should' - slip of the finger.

ARI looking slightly better today.

BW

[bdubs] 30/11/2001 14:55

I have intended commenting on the new recent high in the ARI chart but other things have diverted my attention. I could not find a reason why it shoud break through the important 312/315 level:-

(1.The Railtrack situation seemed to get worse every day. (2. I read recently that big fund managers were going to sell out of shares and into bonds and gilts to the tune of I think £6bn. (3. ARI were fined £2m recently for poor services. (4. Also ARI were facing a huge - and long term - recruitment of drivers problem.

The answer I thought could have been that:- (a. Some big investors thought there could be good news from Gordon Brown - unlikely. (b.Take over talks were possible again. (c. Someone knew something we didn't know.

I know the saying 'Markets advance on a wall of worry' but bad news, no.

I read today that FMR Corporation have built up a 6.96% interest in Arriva of over 4 million shares. Could this be the reason for the shares advancing?

However today's precipitous fall - 24p as I write - is equally puzzling.
Today's close will be important, especially if there is some news that may explain why the chart is looking so unpredictable.

I thought it was an unexpected chance to sell recently at about 320p but now I think it's a strong sell!

Has anyone got any ideas?

BW.

[limpsfield chartist] 21/11/2001 17:08

Timeliner

I hadn't noticed that but on closer inspection I can see it. For me though, taking a look at the long term picture, as long as they stay above 280, the uptrend from Feb 2000 is still intact so I too am happy to hold for now.

[chester] 21/11/2001 17:05

RSI could be a bit worrying but I'm holding for now.

[timeliner] 21/11/2001 14:41

The chart looks like a head and shoulders top formation and recent rally took the price up to the neckline.

[limpsfield chartist] 21/11/2001 14:21

Institutional pass the parcel this week:


"The company received notification yesterday that Prudential plc and all of its subsidiary companies no longer have a notifiable interest in the issued share capital of the Company."

"The Company received notification on 21 November 2001 from Barclays PLC that it has a notifiable interest in 8,098,549 ordinary shares in the Company representing 3.94% of the issued share capital of the Company."

[chester] 19/11/2001 16:46

Starting to look healthy now.

[chester] 19/11/2001 11:31

Also noticed that the 5 and 20 day ma have crossed over. The result of this last time was about a 15% gain. Also a close above 317p would be a move above the 200 day ma.

[limpsfield chartist] 19/11/2001 10:42

Sold on the way down and bought back in today. Looking for a move back up to 360 again. 275/285 seems like good support.

[limpsfield chartist] 08/9/2001 16:51

They got pummelled on Thursday when the results came out but made it all back yesterday.

Some stuff in the weekend FT that analysts now downgrading it to hold rather than buy as it has caught up with the rest of the sector. But what do they know.....

And if you buy before Wednesday you still get the dividend - whatever one of those is.

[limpsfield chartist] 05/9/2001 14:03

Breakout today - new 52 week highs.

[limpsfield chartist] 01/9/2001 16:49

I bought into these a couple of months ago and glad to see they are finally moving. Reasonable yield too. I am happy to hold these with a stop below 300.

I reckon 370/75 is the next obstacle big resistance from 1999 - a break through here and I think the 400s is a reasonable medium term target. Time will tell.

LC

[capitalist] 04/8/2000 21:27

Could one of you chartists please tell me where Arriva is going?



Thanks
C

[march] 15/6/2000 17:19

Traded them but sold last week at 237. Some strange trade and price movements today, if you look.

I would say they will open lower tomorrow with that 126k sell at 4.30.

[capitalist] 15/6/2000 17:11

Anybody following these?
Down and up again like a "French Tarts knickers" - not that I would know of course.
Up 8% today.
C

[nhb] 06/9/1999 10:35

I just posted this on ESI also. Strange morning for Arriva. Interim results above expectations and a 'bid rumours' report on Sky News early this morning which has not been repeated anywhere else since (including later Sky bulletins). There appears to be a large seller (Norwich Union?) supressing the price. Anyone else following with any information they would like to share?