Active Risk Share Discussion Threads

[tommy ten chins] 01/1/2005 22:12

And then there were three!!!

Why the big jump a couple of days ago and no pres comment (6% I think).

PS Neefax - have they been tipped? or is that a guess.

[neefax] 31/12/2004 08:45

The value of the paper makes acquisitions a good bet, european bolt on purchase looks the most probable, margins are enhanced through synergy savings, good year ahead and not suprising that they are likely to be a tipster's favourite for 2005.

[pembury] 28/12/2004 15:25

fellow arriva holder- good performanance and recent positive trading statement- I think recent run is due to profit taking as expected by brokers- hoping for bounce at around £5 mark- arriva more geared to bus services than rail planned expansion around europe- hopefully good run in 05. boring is good for me!!

[tommy ten chins] 03/12/2004 20:47

Another lonely thread...


Mind you, being lonely pays off if this is what happens without all the hype.

A boring co. with a share price performing errr.. un boringly.

But with all the anti rail commentry why is this share doing so well?

I bought these years ago, and I must confess, I can't remember why!!!

I'm not complaining just hungry for other's opinions...

TT

[limehouse] 27/8/2004 19:47

Interim Results 09 sept 04, shares currently in a very tight range. Anybody any news on what's going on?

[winston270] 02/3/2004 23:52

If there is any consolidation in the transport industry its not going to involve either Arriva, First Group or Stagecoach merging with one another as they are all too big.... any of those combinations will exceed the 25% Monopoly rule on the British bus industry & definately in London! Go-Ahead could merge with one of the above, however the combined London fleets would be a problem.

I'd personally like to think First Group would be a better fit with NEX due to bus/rail operations in Britian, First Group have some major bus interests in old PTE areas eg Manchester, South Yorskshire, West Yorkshire etc ( which shouldn't cause too many problems with the monopolies & mergers commision, except for possibly rail of course! ), plus they both have simlar interests in Amercia!

It would be unlikely that NEX would choose Arriva due to there European interests, NEX haven't really expressed much interest in expanding in to Europe other than there short lived Acquisiton in Belgium. But never say never......

[neefax] 29/2/2004 18:09

Figures are out this Thursday, may be some action then with NEX vis a vie consolidation of Train & Bus sector, though monopoly of London bus routes may cause a minor hiccup!

[neefax] 07/2/2004 15:03

There appears to be negative sentiment towards Arriva, I'm not sure why. Perhaps the train business is now not the gravy train (pardon the pun) it once was, government have twigged. The Car dealerships have been sold (perhaps they were sold too cheaply, whatever I believe we will see nearer £3 than a rise

[gtholli] 03/2/2004 15:50

Pallett Its rampaging upwards not down in spite of twice the sellers to buyers.Its the old MMM, I just hope they reach satisfaction and bliss soon and continue to mark it up.

[pallett] 03/2/2004 14:50

There seems to be a great lack of information or news as to why this massive drop in price is rampaging for ever downwards!

[gtholli] 03/2/2004 12:29

Neefax thanks for your views of the ? German scene but the most erosive agent in the Market is uncertainty which naturally creates falling share prices. Arriva seems to believe 'silence is golden' whilst Rome burns. The MM's are busy manipulating its price today against a falling market and lousy NY futures. Only the Gods know why the price has risen.

[neefax] 02/2/2004 15:00

In the past I've posted mentioning the German interest, this appears to have waned considerably, one wonders whether they were disapointed with what they found upon closer examination of the 'picture'. The fall in price is worrying to say the least. I guess the year end figures will disapoint the market, though the dividend will be as robust as ever, which may help sentiment.

[gtholli] 28/1/2004 13:33

No sensible company has a closed period whilst its shares fall against a rising market. Again the philosophy exhibited stems from and was inherited from the prevailing mentality of the forunately old Briish Rail.

Wake up Arriva, your shareholders deserve more!.

[tiltonboy] 26/1/2004 16:34

The company is in it's "closed period" and will not give any further updates.

As soon as it's figures are announced the company will probably start buying back it's own shares again, which should support the price. There is obviously a seller around at the moment, and with few buyers, the share price is coming under pressure.

They look good value to me at these levels.

tiltonboy

[ferrism] 26/1/2004 15:06

I agree with your sentiments gtholli. Unfortunately it's getting hammered again today with no apparent cause. I've been holding from 400 downwards. On paper it looks like a great company but it does seem to lack any initiative when it comes to promoting itself. Oh well, I'll continue to wait for the value to appear!

[gtholli] 26/1/2004 10:31

In spite of good trading updates the stock has sunk with no apparent cause. Does the management ever think of its stock holders, or is it engrained in its company prsonality, not to communicate with the masses. Exactly like the trains it runs, the customer is the last to know why, or what, the problem is. Communications are now so easy I can see no excuse. Just a line to say if the German scene is on going would have helped. I is time the management realised that shareholders are its bread, and often its butter.

[verynervy] 12/12/2003 13:21

trading update released today is very positive!

[neefax] 11/10/2003 11:33

I believe Arriva to be a solid company, well managed, cash generative, excellent dividend, potential to be bought out by venture capital outfit or European trandport operator must rate very likely imho.

[psolomons] 07/10/2003 14:47

I take it everyone has missed the last bus with no posts for days.
This share still represents excellent value IMO.
Increasing profits, low p/e,good yeild,share buybacks.
Its sliding on low volume but i am looking at it as another buying opportunity.
Good luck to everyone,if there is anyone out there.

[ttjohnson] 17/9/2003 16:43

Touching highs again. It has picked up well since strong interims. Holding for now, and maybe until the Greater Anglia franchise winner is known sometime early in 2004 or maybe by end of 2003.

[neefax] 04/9/2003 00:08

Tomorrow will be an interesting day, 6 months figures released at 7.00 a.m., I believe. Should be a good set of figures and probable 5% rise in dividend. Robust outfit must be an attraction to venture capitalists due to its increasing cash flow. However, I would expect a National Express link up, takeover or more likely, approach from European transport company, I'm holding on for now.

[goodhard] 03/9/2003 12:11

what happened at the end today?

[neefax] 06/8/2003 15:05

That rumour did the the rounds a copuple of months ago, favourite to take over Arriva are German transport group who have 'measured up' Arriva and who look attractive (to the predator)due to its european operations which are trading well and fits the Germans desire to be a broad based European Transport operator, I guess Arriva will be happy as it's management will still be kept in place to drive forward the expansion, imho.

[shaggy666] 05/8/2003 18:01

Also heard rumour, maybe a National Express takeover??