Active Risk Share Discussion Threads

[indieman] 16/8/2007 20:20

I can't remember anyone mentioning Arriva as a takeover candidate before, but I stand to be corrected.

[indieman] 15/8/2007 15:28

That's the quietest (and hardest to see) Howl I've ever heard.

[indieman] 10/7/2007 16:52

This is a situation where neither fundamentals or charts can prepare you for the outcome. One contract win and the downtrend established months ago is almost blown away.

[steve517757] 04/7/2007 12:12

Indieman,

I do not do anything as complicated as working out index, just take a look at company charts, sector charts, bit of investigation into company background and news flows. Get it wrong sometimes, but who does not.

Good to seen 3 acquisitions over the past month or so - presuming they all go through - more buses in Italy, more buses in Denmark (not sure what Danish compettion rules are like - but would have thought in the UK this deal would probably not be allowed) and entry into the Polish market, by a rail joint venture.

Steve

[indieman] 21/6/2007 15:49

I should also add that the story is similar for quite a few stocks in most sectors. It's looking like a good time not to be in the markets from a medium term viewpoint.

[indieman] 21/6/2007 13:37

You may well be right about Arriva's increase in market cap. I've very little knowledge of the business side or the fundamentals.

I generate an index for the sector from the Daily Telegraph's daily change values and that suggests the sector as a whole started losing momentum nearly a year ago. Since then, it's gone sideways with a slight upward tilt, probably due to stock-specific rumours (BAY, First Choice etc).

Edit: Interrupted by the apparently urgent need to buy a sofa.

Looking back at the chart of my index, we are not far above a reasonable support level: 1140 vs 1090-ish. (July 1999=1,000). The 3 day smoothed Deviation Indicator is around 96. In other words, the index is 4% below its smoothed one year average. My trading indicator has reached negative levels not seen since August 2004. The Coppock Indicator topped out last October.

In summary, it's not looking good although I can see some support which should provide respite in the shortish term.

It's all TA, I'm afraid, but hope it helps.

[steve517757] 21/6/2007 10:42

Indieman - I would be happy to hear your views of the transport sector as a whole. 8 years ago Arriva's mainland Europe expansion was in its infancy - now it makes up over half their business. The business at home has grown in that time too - so I would have said a 300% increase would have been par for the course excluding inflation and improving economies of cost /return so 400% increase in capitalisation does not seem excessive over this period

[indieman] 20/6/2007 15:28

The chart suggests a different outcome.

Looked at in the round, ARI has had a wonderful 8 year bull run and I've participated in some of it. It has increased about 400% in that time, albeit with a few intermediate downturns along the way. It looks as though that is ending, although how long the new phase will last is an open question. It could just be another intermediate correction, in which case it will be a matter of months; it has already dropped 14% over a few weeks. All of this could be thrown out of the window by a takeover bid or similar as has happened to other stocks.

Look at the chart and see what you think. Maybe you'll see something I've missed or misinterpreted. All of this could be thrown out of the window by a takeover bid or similar. It's happened before and will do so again.

[steve517757] 20/6/2007 08:39

Indieman, still think Arriva is one of the most undervalued shares currently in the transport sector - with 3 rail UK franchise awards due to be announced soon, any wins are bound to send the share price upward

[indieman] 18/6/2007 07:58

You might want to check out the 12 month chart; it's looking decidedly sick.

The 50 day EMA is heading down toward the 200 day which is now starting to drop and the recent low was below the March low. The recovery afterwards looks to be stalling at roughly that level. Although the price drop from the first peak to the March low is only about 14%, this is looking as though it could be a (rare) genuine Double Top. Given the long Bull run that Arriva has had, a prolonged period of price depreciation could be on the cards.

Check it out for yourselves.

[maiseymouse] 08/5/2007 11:15

A bit of much needed support

[steve517757] 28/4/2007 20:39

How thing s change over a period of 5 weeks!

UK - 20,000 Employees, 6,500 buses, 116 trains
Sweden - 1,000 Employees, 300 buses, 26 trains
Denmark - 4,100 Employees, 1,390 buses, 47 trains, 2 water buses
Holland - 2,300 Employees, 1,250 buses, 51 trains
Germany - 2,600 Employees, 760 buses, 129 trains
Czech Rep - 260 Employees, 170 buses
Italy - 2,200 Employees, 1,700 buses
Spain - 320 Employees, 240 buses
Portugal - 1,700 Employees, 860 buses

Major changes down in Holland - up In Germany

[steve517757] 19/3/2007 22:40

Stats of Arriva's operations - taken from revamped web site.

UK - 19,500 Employees, 6,500 buses, 116 trains
Sweden - 900 Employees, 300 buses, 26 trains
Denmark - 4,100 Employees, 1,400 buses, 44 trains, 2 water buses
Holland - 2,450 Employees, 1,300 buses, 78 trains
Germany - 1,350 Employees, 370 buses, 116 trains
Czech Rep - 260 Employees, 175 buses
Italy - 3,000 Employees, 2,115 buses
Spain - 330 Employees, 250 buses
Portugal - 1,600 Employees, 850 buses

[illiswilgig] 30/12/2006 21:45

Yep, I'm gaining nicely. Have been in this one since it was at 183p. I remember being annoyed that I missed it at 163p. It's one of a number of stocks that I bought when unloved and with new management in place to turn them around (eg FSJ, CAR et al). I think the management is going to keep on acquiring in europe until ARI is transformed. Providing they don't do a stagecoach and overdo it then I am going to stay around to participate in the rewards.

Happy and prosperous to other holders,

[edjgee] 29/12/2006 12:24

Going up nicely but a bit more than oil's fall. Hope someone else gaining on this one. Prosperous new year if so!

[edjgee] 15/11/2006 15:18

that was me above missing the b*gger at 500, can't imagine why this gem does not attract much interest. 50% gain missed! Oranges can easily imagine a bid as co diversified into europe and works well at that too! An oil price on the up may screw but a citrus response?

[oranges] 18/10/2006 14:43

I think we will soon recive a bid for ARRIVA, its brilliantly managed and generates cash by the bucketful.

[edjgee] 29/6/2006 10:33

Bounce from a double bottom with 2 supports within 2 years too. Missed buying the bger at 500!

[juju43] 11/5/2006 13:11

think we just had a mm shake - good sign

[lanzarote666] 06/5/2006 08:44

IC recommends as a buy this week and talks about a large institution selling their stake and pushing the price down by 9% in the past month. Buying opportunity.
Full page main tip.

[edjgee] 03/5/2006 12:43

Sure bouncing about, reading a Market Bottom in Yahoo but yep I guess fuel worries must be it. Must be able to pass on some costs to customers. All transport is hit with same problem, example windy easyjet's today reveleations. ARI seems good co to me but looking to dump this rollercoater at next hump for something golden/silver etc