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Access Intelligence Share Discussion Threads
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|Could this be the next gbg|
|Access Intelligence – some future value to be had for the patient in the AIM back waters? Read Nigel Somerville
There's only one investor show where really serious investors meet really serious speakers like Slater & Wray - UK Investor April 30th HERE
Noting the disclosure that I own shares in AIM-listed Access Intelligence (LSE:ACC), so I am talking my own book, I was interested to peruse the numbers for the year to November 2015 as released yesterday. The headline numbers look great: revenue from continuing operations up 89%, recurring revenue from continuing operations nigh-on doubled and there was plenty of cash. How do things look beneath the surface?
The first thing which I noticed was that there was no reference to EBITDA to be found anywhere. That sets Access apart from some of the racier constituents of AIM – and the lack of bulletin board activity, as well as the coma-like market activity bodes well. Is this a company in which nobody is interested and thus a potential source of profit for the patient investor?
The hard numbers are that the company saw £3.2 million head! off to money heaven – around 1.55p per share. There was also a net operational cash outflow of £1.6 million and a further £2.0 million outflow from investing activities. This was offset by £1.2 million raised from share issues (including the exercise of options), and £2.9 million raised from the issue of loan notes, to leave the company with cash of £1.5 million at year-end, although net current assets were negative to the tune of £1.2 million.
That doesn’t sound all that promising, but it is not Placing Ahoy for post year-end the company racked up £4.5 million in cash from the disposal of a non-core asset (Due North). The company still has assets on the balance sheet which it is looking to offload, so perhaps there may be more of this to come. Meanwhile, the sale price of £4.5 million represented a multiple of 12.6 times EBITDA and 25 times pre-tax profit. (Oops, I mentioned EBITDA!)
And so to the continuing operations. The company has been undergoing something of a transformation for what feels like an eternity under Chairman Michael Jackson (formerly of FTSE100 company Sage, SGE) and I’ve not really followed it all that closely for some time. From memory, the shares are somewhere around where they were when I bought in.
But here is what interests me: with turnover from continuing operations up by 89% year-on-year and clocking up a gro! ss profit of £4.8 million (vs £3.3 million) before being trashed by admin expenses (£7.3 million, vs £3.9 million last time) and impairments of £1.9 million there does appear to be scope for optimism: one would hope that the impairments will not be an ongoing issue and that the whopping admin expenses might come down.
Meanwhile, if the growth continues in similar vein and those admin and sales costs are kept under control then it does look as though it might not be too long before the company starts to generate cash from its operations, rather than relying on placings, disposals and loans. It won’t be this year, though – we are promised further investment and restructuring during 2016. But we are also told that the full benefits [are] expected to come through towards the end of the current financial year and into 2017.
I’m not saying it is a buy – not yet, at any rate. But Access Intelligence looks like one to watch and research for the patient investor. For those with a taste for researching boring investments which nobody is interested in, this might be a good place to spend some time.|
|That was how I read it too Lanzarote. I assume the cash balance in the accounts is for the year end. If it is not I will have some questions for the AGM.|
|I thought the sale of Due North has come as a post balance sheet event and will show up in November 2016 results. Have I read that wrong?
I am working on next year recurring revenues of £7.50m at 60% margin less overhead say £4.0m (without R&D) of which £948k is depreciation, so cash positive?|
|The other thing too was the EBITDA seemed to be a little buried in the RNS which seems a little odd. Guess it just wasnt worth shouting about|
|They sold Due North to Proactis for £4.5mill and they have 1.5 mill cash left.
The burn is a little scary.
Make or break year I suspect. Interestingly Proactis have a chart that I wish we had here. Hope the sale of Due North wasn't a mistake, time will tell I suppose.|
|But the large purchases that have followed the results announcement may reflect the fact that amongst the losses is an increase in the cash balances and the outlook is better based upon 92% recurring revenues.
Perhaps the jam is getting closer?|
|Results announcement - always seems to be the golden tomorrow!!|
|Don't be fooled. I bought in this week but my purchase showed as a sale at 5p rather than a buy. It seems that some of those transactions at the same level over recent days may have been buyers too.
I did pick up shares easily, so perhaps there is a seller around.
I wonder if I have arrived too late given the run up since June 2015, but am attracted by the level of recurring revenues and absence of R&D cost next year which should feed through to the bottom line. And then the re-rating begins.
|There you go. Happy?|
|Why does this share not drop despite lots of sales over the last month. Is someone buying these.|
Kestrel now own over 11%.
|Aren't they just paying MJ's tax bill?|
|I would not be surprised if they are investing ahead of the new investing rules for VCTs.
I think some VCTs will have to go into run-off mode and keep their winners longer.|
|Unicorn AIM VCT Plc are keen. Just announced that they now own over 10% of the issued share capital.|
|I feel so slighted|
|Jimbo - as a keen participant in this share could you give your thoughts for the near future performance please. Thanks|
|RNS out - what did I say about a background buyer? 10% to Kestrel Opportunities, interestingly, one portion held through a New York nominees account. Wasn't there something posted on here or one of the other forums about a US-based "buyer" a while back?|
|Some tax bill Mr Jackson....|
|And interesting to see today the price paid for shares sold rising a fraction despite another £12k or so worth of shares sold off.
Be very interesting to see what's driving this up if we ever find out. I've never quite worked out how some institutions manage to build up holdings without paying the market quote from a MM or without causing a price spike - I've been told a few theories.
Anyway, had a small top up today just in case - I am comfortable holding this long term as I see great potential so if this turns out to be nothing I'm not chasing fast returns or quick exit.|
|Interesting gap up indeed. I tried a dummy sell this morning but there was no upwards pressure typically indicative of a background buyer - on a timetable at least, flat bid offered.
Yet 850,000 (or maybe 690,000 - I'll get back to this) shares were sold into the uptick with no drop back.
And the last trade was at a significantly higher price. Now it *could* be a buy showing as a sell due to the large numbers of shares soaked up in the afternoon, SEAQ Ask could easily have dropped below par.
If a sell then that is a ratcheting up of pressure at the close.
If I had to guess I'd say someone in the background wants shares but is relatively relaxed at the timetable. The MM gapped after there being pretty close to zero volume for quite a while. And if I had to stab I'd say the last trade is actually a buy.
But that doesn't answer the question WHY.
I'm a bit annoyed I sold 2/3rds of my holding at significantly over 4p (I had an average well under 3p) when the last set of results failed to set my heart racing.
I needed the cash at the time and I had assumed this would languish for a while and I would be able to get back in at around the same exit price or maybe even a bit less.
I now have the cash but I'm not sure whether I might spike myself - there could be a development brewing... Or it could just drop right back when whatever's pressuring this right now goes away.|
|Interesting tick up this morning on no news?
|I've been buying.The market does appear to be re-rating the stock which is not only welcome, but understandable given the positive vibes coming out of the company in the last few RNS'.|
|I wouldn't like to guess exactly what's going on, but as I noted in my blog at the end of May:-
"There was a small tick up in the share price on Friday and whilst share sales have left the share price unmoved in recent weeks, a small number of buys quickly moved the price upwards."
I may be wrong but there does appear to be a buyer in the background.