Access Intelligence Share Discussion Threads

[jimbobtechstock] 16/7/2014 16:08

Thanks, you have highlighted why the market doesn't like it. I'm still of the opinion the cream is in the licensing repeat revenues and my own experience in the sector is that compliance software is a nascent sector that will grow and be lucrative over time (if - and it's a big if - they have good products). But yes I see they're in a bit of a rut because the pessimistic market hinders their shot at cream. Ordinarily - and for a lot of US tech stocks in similar position - they would be able to issue shares at a much more favourable placing price and ride the dip. But the share price will probably stay depressed for the reasons you highlight until FYRs, which will be quite a while yet.

I do hold modest quantity of this now and have bought more in the recent dip but it remains firmly in my risky quota.

[1littlefish] 16/7/2014 11:00

imho the next step is some redundancies

they do NOT have imo enough cash to keep supporting their real op. loss of 800k per 6 months or 1.6M per year.

only got 1.1M cash now
at 800k per 6 months cash consumption that would leave only 300k at end of the year....

vs 2.3M in May 2013 !!!!!!!!
----

I think in my 2 posts I have identified why the mkt does not like the interim results.

[1littlefish] 16/7/2014 10:43

at op. level they lost 800k in H1.....thats 1.6M per year

that money coming from cash down and receivables down

after supposedly investing for how many years now ....
to lose 800k in H1 is pretty poor imo

invested over past years....but in these numbers I can not see much in way of results for it...

(continually updating software is a real cost of being in software business....
imo can not exclude it from the P & L calcs.)

coupled with service staff not having enough work by the looks of it...
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current liabilities is 1M bigger than current assets......not so pleasant
although one could discuss each item...

---
May 2013 Cash = 2.3M
Cash now = 1.1M
big reduction in 1 year.

It does not appear to be a cash cow !

If you want a divi then it needs to generate surplus cash.

754k moved from current to non-current....clearly cause they dont want to pay it !
would leave only 400k...and if add in 800k loss in H2 then cash would go 400k -ve if they had had to pay that 754k
---

retained earnings was 7.2M 1 yr ago...
now it is down to 4.5M
dont want to keep going like that much longer !

(dont put too much faith in generating a cash/numerical value in intangibles....stroke of accountants pen and they half them ! down was it 3M last year)

and were the service staff with no work actually really generating intangible assets ?
the service staff are qualified to do that ? write code etc ?
I would hazard a guess that 2 different skill sets...

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future dilution by the way...
around 60M shares....!! is that 25% !

[jimbobtechstock] 16/7/2014 09:19

About par for standard investorwaffle don't you think!! Don't forget the reason they're listed is to recognise future value and realise that potential today to invest in growth. Selling staff on a day rate is not scalable to a level the market will appreciate, but selling licenses for software is, and that's where they claim their underlying growth is - and yes the staff who can't book to customer projects are working on pv/RnD stuff for future licensing revenues.

The only thing I can't figure out is why UK investors are valuing this so low - possibly because they're under-selling the growth potential? Or am I just in too good a mood to see the down side this morning?

[davydoo] 16/7/2014 08:08

I don't hold these but some of the comments are laughable.

'to offset reduced professional services revenues due to staff being deployed on internal development projects'

Professional Services are sold (I used to sell them). Usually staff are deployed on internal projects as a result of no sales, rather than no sales because staff are deployed on internal projects.

'Cash balance as at 31 May 2014 £1.1m (H1 2013: £2.3m) reflecting sustained development spend in the half year'

So at this burn rate will there be any cash left at year end?

'Access Intelligence continues to drive long term shareholder...value'

So with no more dividends the share price is up then?...umm...no...

'the platform and scalability to continue to expand our reputation and position'

great, what about sales and profits though?

[jimbobtechstock] 16/7/2014 07:57

I still like the look of this. Loss is peanuts - compared to other AIM UK tech "hopefuls" they have a sustainable growth plan with revenues almost covering ongoing R&D costs... And it is v positive that repeated revenues (ie licensing) is up because this of course is the scalable element of the business. On the down side they're a bit cash light at the moment but again their burn is nothing compared to other junkier techstocks.

[orado] 16/7/2014 07:11

What a load of rubbish. Really disappointed with MJ.

[orado] 20/5/2014 13:39

Thanks Hastings, nothing new but good all the same.

[hastings] 20/5/2014 12:42

May be of interest to others taking a look.

[michaelmouse] 10/5/2014 16:58

JimbobTechstock - I outlined my thoughts in the blog following the results. Personally I buy all of my stocks with a long term view and often hold for many years. As regards advice, if that's what you're asking? I never give any. My blog just provides a picture of my personal thoughts.

Best of luck whatever you decide to do. I'll update my blog on any significant news.

Michael.

[jimbobtechstock] 08/5/2014 09:55

Thanks Michael - like you I invested around and under 3p. I am thinking of increasing even at today's share price for a long term hold, any thoughts?

[orado] 14/4/2014 06:09

Thanks Michael Ouse for pointing out their new website. Looks great.

[dgwinterbottom] 04/4/2014 06:53

Yeah I noticed that, if its a Director buy it should be announced within a day or two

[approach3] 03/4/2014 15:37

Anyone know what has happened today with the big buy ?

[dgwinterbottom] 02/4/2014 09:37

An interesting assessment on the final results by Paul Scott at Stocko!!

hxxp://www.-.com/content/small-cap-value-report-1-apr-2014-gtc-cra-acc-82387/

[937huff26] 11/3/2014 12:57

Compliance is a fast growing area within financial services, how much of this is ACC securing? that is the question, guess we will find out shortly.

[jimbobtechstock] 27/2/2014 12:55

Having read recent posts, including post 211, and looking at the fundamentals I fail to see a compelling reason why not to buy this for a long-term hold, unless I'm missing something glaringly obvious on the risk front. Although I see Macroaxis put the probability of bankruptcy in the next 24 months at 76.9%, which seems a little unfair given the pnl and bs.



Considering taking a calculated risk that this won't fall much lower, or will at least recover if it does, and holding now is the only way of ensuring being in if something comes out of the blue, as often does in this sector?

Open to hearing views on this.

[937huff26] 11/2/2014 07:54

I see DOTD results great again, when will there be good news here?

[orado] 23/12/2013 07:19

Director buys --- when will share price zoom?

[lewis winthorpe] 28/10/2013 08:36

Michael,

Special dividend aside, a bust acquisition in Cobent and a York centre that has been up and running for 18 months and no improvement in new deals?

I personally think GHFs picture is the more plausible.

L.

[michaelmouse] 27/10/2013 18:20

Glasshalfull - (post 208) Your cash summary is misleading. ACC have paid out special dividends, made an acquisition and invested heavily in the York Development Centre over the time you have quoted.

As the trading statement stated:- cash flows remain robust.

hxxp://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/access-intelligence.html

Michael.

[wolansm] 25/10/2013 08:03

Just what we all wanted to hear, where's my cheque book