Abrdn European Logistics... Share Discussion Threads

[chopp1] 21/5/2024 21:56

Well some of us are Skyship, but not those who bought a few years ago. I’m sitting on a 30% loss

[giltedge1] 21/5/2024 18:00

Also to add save on the refinancing in 2025, insurance companues can slot ASLI properties into their existing infrastructure, mgt, legals, admin, dirs etc so save 2% a year. Their yield 8% vs current small retail investors 6%. Also most properties under 5 years old & great ESG scores.

[skyship] 21/5/2024 16:59

chopp1 - sorry, but a wholly naive comment.

Shareholders, you, me and many others, are being given the opportunity to sell our shares at close to NAV rather than to continue to hold at a 30% discount.

We can then reinvest for a better yield elsewhere in the sector.

[spectoacc] 21/5/2024 16:10

Sub-scale, substandard. Looking to sell into a rising market, not at the nadir.

Or look at it another way - where would the share price be if they did cut?

Added some more on this dip.

[chopp1] 21/5/2024 15:42

Why are the Directors so obsessed with the discount that they are making rash decisions which disadvantage shareholder value. Have a little patience, wait for interest and associated discount rates to fall, then NAV will start rising and the share price will follow.it is madness to rush into a fire sale which when all the costs are taken into account will just erode shareholder value. Just keep running as normal.They are generating reasonable realised profits which can provide a dividend albeit reduced while we wait for capital value to recover.

[spectoacc] 21/5/2024 10:36

"Clearly a total bid had to be at a good discount to both cover costs and provide a good turn for the buyer."


Except, if you buy the co you pay 0.5% stamp, and if you buy the properties you pay 5% stamp, all things being equal. Which they're not, particularly with European (what's the stamp there?), but no one was getting near NAV for the whole thing, just as they didn't with eg EPIC.

[giltedge1] 21/5/2024 09:55

Yes agree 78p capital + 3p divs next 12 - 15 months, about 20%, already buyers lined up. Board quite confident, by announcing qtly capital payments. I assume some of the big European Insurance companies are keen to add to there logistics portfolio, eying interest rate cuts. Not so good for myself as paid £0.78p, so only made dividend income. With wind ups in progress will help remainers, LMP at NAV for example.

[skyship] 21/5/2024 09:24

ASLI assets much in demand; as can be seen from the RNS.

Clearly a total bid had to be at a good discount to both cover costs and provide a good turn for the buyer.

However, many wanted just to cherry-pick certain assets; and the wind-down gives them the opportunity to do so.

The degree of demand suggessts the wind-down duration will be quite short; that in itself raises the GRY return.

I am working on a conservative basis; and will then be happy to see more upside.

My model is for 78p by 30th Sep'25. That gives a GRY of 17.0%pa from the current 63p.

I think it quite likely that the actual return will be nearer 20%.

[skyship] 21/5/2024 09:00

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 21/5/2024 08:50

Those who reacted quickly yesterday got themselves a good deal. Now up at 63p bid.

[williamcooper104] 20/5/2024 21:35

Yep - a lot of the renewables have continuation votes coming up

[spectoacc] 20/5/2024 20:53

Agree API still best. Can't see ASLI getting much above NAV (if it was worth more, they'd have had bids nearer to NAV), but can see API getting some of their better stuff away at premia. There'll likely be a point to exit both after some of the capital returns.

Losing count of the number of trusts on the wind-up trail - rightly so, when so many fail to cover divi in a meaningful way, have no hope of growing, and in some cases serve as vehicles to enrich sponsors/managers.

[williamcooper104] 20/5/2024 20:49

It does - sounds like they've got bids for parts of the portfolio - so my guess is somewhere around 65-75% Ought to be a quicker realisation than GABI and possibly API API still sticks out as best value

[spectoacc] 20/5/2024 20:46

If they're out of "..The majority.." by Q3 2025 (ie end-Q2 2025), what constitutes the majority? That's the key question for me, 51% or 90% makes a huge difference to the return calc.

[williamcooper104] 20/5/2024 20:14

So we ought to get 17.5-20% returns But if we get half of our capital back within 12 months there's every chance we can put into something else high yielding The home run would be to get the sane capital into a couple of wind ups before markets properly recover

[williamcooper104] 20/5/2024 20:12

The divi is uncovered What I've been doing with these wind ups is adding the EPRA eps in as a divi for half the wind up period If all goes well the epra eps = roughly the disposal costs and you can simplify it to you'll get full NAV back over the average holding period Eg if say 18 months, then EPS for 9 months and NAV at 18 months (in reality you'll get some ealier and maybe some later but that'll be rounding in your IRR so can simplify) EPS ought to be a little higher as management costs should be cheaper - but need to see details

[catch007] 20/5/2024 18:43

SKYSHIP: The company stated it would continue paying decreasing dividends so per worth adding circa 4-6p in dividend income to your numbers over the wind down period

[skyship] 20/5/2024 15:57

The Annual Report shows Dec'23 EPRA NAV at c95.7, ie c82p.

So let's say they achieve 78p - IMO quite do-able into a recovering Market.

They're talking about a pretty rapid wind-down by Q2'25. For the sake of caution, let's look at a GRY to 30/09/25. That would deliver 18.35%pa.

Earlier pay-outs would increase that figure; but looks like a good place to start.

Welcome others' calculations.

[williamcooper104] 20/5/2024 13:44

Yep and looks like an 18-24 month average holding period of 12

[speedsgh] 20/5/2024 12:07

Seems a sensible conclusion to the review. Now need to ensure that the investment manager's fees during the wind down period are reasonable and aligned with the best interests of shareholders.

[stun12] 20/5/2024 11:27

Managed wind-down. Lots of interest in the assets.

[stun12] 29/4/2024 11:50

EBOX is on something of a tear currently. Poor old ASLI getting left behind.

[stun12] 26/4/2024 09:27

Was there anything new in the annual report statement? All looked to be dated at the end of 2023 (80p NAV etc).

Doesn't seem to move around with the wider market. The FTSE is at rather nose-bleeding levels finally, so possibly a good thing.