Abrdn European Logistics... Share Discussion Threads

[hugepants] 21/4/2023 15:52

Final results out this morning.


So yield is 6.9% at current price and discount to NTA is 34%.
LTV 34%.
No future development commitments
Dividend not covered last year but giltedge thinks it should be soon (post #241).

I cant see valuations falling much.
"...Two of the key drivers of the expected limitations of new supply are increased financing and development costs. 2022 has seen development economics deteriorate, with estimated profit margins halving to c.15%, driven by higher construction input costs (up 25% in 2022)."


There are never many posts on this REIT unlike some others. Always seems to be under the radar. I swapped some of my ebox last week into this.

[alan pt] 17/4/2023 14:34

Dividend cover might be a better (though still imperfect) measure

Unfortunately it is an item of data which is not always shared and ASLI are one of those who are less than forthcoming about the level of dividend cover. However, if you look back to early Oct on this thread you'll find some speculation/calculation suggesting that it is at best marginal

I'm a fan of the ASLI strategy and have been invested in the past, but right now I think they have a bit of a problem because the timing of their raises and investments has meant that they bought a lot at the top of the market

[apollocreed1] 16/4/2023 02:58

Using the FT Global Equity Screener filtered for Closed End investment companies, ASLI has one of the lowest payout ratios in the sector at just 18.93. That looks very positive, but does that seem correct or is payout ratio not an accurate measure for Investment Trusts?

[cwa1] 17/2/2023 11:37

DECLARATION OF FOURTH INTERIM DISTRIBUTION



17 February 2023 - abrdn European Logistics Income plc (LSE: ASLI), the
Company which invests in a diversified portfolio of European logistics
properties, announces its fourth interim distribution for the quarter ended 31
December 2022.


The Directors have today declared a fourth interim distribution of 1.41 euro
cents (equivalent to 1.20 pence) per Ordinary share, in respect of the year
ended 31 December 2022 (2021: 1.41 euro cents). This fourth interim
distribution will be paid in sterling on 24 March 2023 to Ordinary
shareholders on the register on 3 March 2023 (ex-dividend date of 2 March
2023).

[speedsgh] 13/1/2023 10:23

New QuotedData 'paid for' research note...

abrdn European Logistics Income: Negotiating choppy waters -

[neilyb675] 05/12/2022 09:41

74.60 - 75.90 (GBX) at 09:36:40
on Market (LSE)

[hugepants] 01/12/2022 10:24

Yes NAV only down 1% although they do anticipate valuation "weakness" in the coming 12 months

[petewy] 01/12/2022 09:52

Decent set of results?

[cwa1] 24/11/2022 16:54

DECLARATION OF THIRD INTERIM DISTRIBUTION

24 November 2022 - abrdn European Logistics Income plc (LSE: ASLI), the Company which invests in high quality European logistics properties, announces its third interim distribution for the quarter ended 30 September 2022.

The Directors have today declared a third interim distribution of 1.41 euro cents (equivalent to 1.20 pence) per Ordinary share, in respect of the year ending 31 December 2022 (2021: 1.41 euro cents). This third interim distribution will be paid in sterling on 30 December 2022 to Ordinary shareholders on the register on 2 December 2022 (ex-dividend date of 1 December 2022).

The Company intends to declare quarterly interim distributions to Shareholders in respect of the quarters ending on the following dates: 31 March, 30 June, 30 September and 31 December in each year. Any such distribution payment to Shareholders may take the form of either dividend income or "qualifying interest income" which may be designated as an interest distribution for UK tax purposes and therefore subject to the interest streaming regime applicable to investments trusts.

Of this third interim distribution declared of 1.20 pence per Ordinary share, 1.01 pence (equivalent to 1.19 euro cents) is declared as dividend income with 0.19 pence (equivalent to 0.22 euro cents) treated as qualifying interest income.

The interim distribution will be paid in sterling to shareholders on the register. However, shareholders are able to make an election to receive distributions in euros. The form for applying for such election can be obtained from the Company's UK registrars (Equiniti Limited) and any such election must be received by the Company's registrars no later than 5:00 p.m. on 2 December 2022.

[speedsgh] 11/10/2022 14:38

... Numis Securities analyst Andrew Rees said the manager’s departure was a surprise but was unlikely to lead to a significant change in the fund’s focus on the ‘mid box’ and urban logistics parts of the logistics sector.

‘Although it faced some initial deployment challenges following launch, the fund has now built up a portfolio of 28 properties diversified across five countries,’ said Rees.

Like other Reits, ASLI shares have de-rated as red-hot valuations of warehouses and distribution depots in the aftermath of the pandemic have subsided in the face of rising interest rates. The shares have fallen 32% this year to 76.5p, 24% below their 100p flotation price in November 2017.

Even with dividends included that has left shareholders with a 4.7% total loss over three years. The decline puts the company on a 6% yield and 33% discount below net asset value, reducing its market value to £316m...

[speedsgh] 11/10/2022 10:20

Evert Castelein has resigned from abrdn and is stepping down as lead fund manager with immediate effect. Replacement seems to have a pretty good CV but unsettling all the same. No reason for EC's departure given.

Appointment of New Lead Fund Manager -

[spectoacc] 07/10/2022 06:58

"...early refinancing of the Company's next major debt expiry, a EUR170 million facility with Berlin Hyp AG, approximately one year in advance of the facility's due date."

and

"This refinancing facility extends the Group's total weighted average debt expiry from 3.8 years to 5.0 years. When the new facility commences just over a year from now, the Group's weighted average cost of debt will increase from 1.4% to 1.9%".

on SRE.

Not saying this isn't sensible, and their overall cost of debt is OK, and duration much better, but - they'll have paid to exit a year early, and it shows they recognise how much worse this would have been 12 months from now.

And whilst they say they've increased duration from 3.8 years to 5 years, they don't say (I don't think?) when the next one comes up.

And those numbers are Euro, where interest rates - and rates expectations - are lower than UK.

I do fear for our small REITs, even those claiming long debt durations. ASLI likely to be nearer SRE's experience at least.

[alan pt] 06/10/2022 23:54

Last ASLI refinance was 2.57% on Madrid, three year term. That was two months ago though, back in a different world...

[williamcooper104] 06/10/2022 23:19

Good spot - a long way aways from the 1-1.5 rates common on existing European loans

[rambutan2] 06/10/2022 21:48

I noticed that Sirius refinanced some of its debt at 4.26%:

[williamcooper104] 06/10/2022 11:37

Thanks for that The divis on unspent equity I did overlook Will have another look at my numbers

[giltedge1] 06/10/2022 10:02

Hello William, 6 months cash in Euro 10M, (adjusting for working capital), Cash out Dividends Interest 13M, but Madrid & France only signed July 22, so 2M (4M pa) rent not included, so shortfall admittedly 1M. But index linked rents will increase rent roll by at least 8% 2023. So 2023 Jan - June 23 6 months Cash in 13M, Cash Out (Dividends & Interest) Maybe 14M, but after that positive cashflow. Also Shares issued in Jan 22, received full dividend which also distorted matters. Obviously a challenging environment, but dividend sustainable at this level & Cash flow positive 2024 onwards.
No cap Ex as all modern warehouses. If drop back to 70 I will add.

[williamcooper104] 05/10/2022 15:27

I got (in my very rough calculations) the sustainable divi yield to be about 4.4 percent

[williamcooper104] 05/10/2022 15:24

Had another look here - it's v similar to EBOX - assets/value part good one cashflows/divi look bad From operating cflow the current divi looks to be only covered at c70 percent Assets are great, 68 percent uncapped CPI, implied yield on properties 5.5 percent - this looks v cheap But with all the costs, plus most of their debt maturing in 3-4 years, and currently fixed at 1.43% it's hard to see how the dividend cover materially improves The LTV at 25 percent is reasonable; it's just stating divi looks too high

[speedsgh] 05/10/2022 14:05

Hi Specto - Low site coverage of approx 17% on the Horst acquisition too (cf. Dijon 18.7%). However capped CPI link on Horst lease limits attractiveness, as does miserly 3.8% NIY.

Yes, I also assumed that these deals were agreed a little while back. The market seems to be voting with its feet. Almost back down to recent lows. Not sure I'm ready to average down. Not convinced that 5.9% yield offers an adequate risk premium and there are some much deeper discounts to NAV available from many of the generalist ITs.

[spectoacc] 05/10/2022 11:00

First one looks decent - 4.2%, some development value.

Not convinced by the 2nd one.

Assume these deals were agreed well before recent market problems.

[speedsgh] 05/10/2022 10:52

Purchase of warehouses in France & the Netherlands -

Dijon, France
* 5,069 sqm (total plot size c.27,000 sqm)
* Cost EUR9.3m (net initial yield 4.2%)
* Leased to Dachser Intelligent Logistics on a 10 year term
* Rent benefits from annual French ILAT indexation
* Low site coverage with opportunities for future expansion

Horst, the Netherlands
* c.6,900 sqm including offices (total plot size c.40,500 sqm)
* Cost EUR12.1m (net initial yield 3.8%)
* Sale & leaseback deal with Limax (producer/packager/distributor of soft fruits & mushrooms). Property serves as Limax HQ.
* 10 year term subject to annual CPI capped indexation

Purchases have been financed through cash reserves and expected additional asset level debt drawn with ING bank at 3.05% for a shorter three year term.

-------------------------

Looks like exceptionally low net initial yields in view of macro developments in the past few weeks. So they are paying a fair bit for future potential (rent increases/site development opportunities).

Note that the index-linked rent on the Horst property is capped so not fully inflation-protected.

A bit of info on French ILAT indexation on the Dijon asset's rent...



Parties to commercial leases are free to stipulate that rent shall be indexed on an annual basis. However, under French law, as mentioned above, an index is only valid if it is directly related to the object of the contract or to the activity of one of the parties.

For commercial leases, the option is between the Commercial Rents Index (Indice des Loyers Commerciaux or ILC) for commercial activities and the Index of Rents for Services Activities (Indice des Loyers des Activités Tertiaries or ILAT) for services activities. These indexes are published by the French State Statistical Institute (INSEE).

[williamcooper104] 30/9/2022 09:31

I'm looking for investment grass floating rate debt exposure

[giltedge1] 30/9/2022 09:22

Most reits now settled at 6% makes sense as investors require at least a 2% yield premium over gilts 4%, so require interest rates to stabilise. Thought property separate asset class from equities, but not the case as it turned out, move together. Reread ASLI report & happy to invest more, new buildings, CPI rents, fully let, no debt financing for 4 years, but missed the dip 2 days ago. Logistics still best category in property.

[alan pt] 29/9/2022 16:34

27% REITs, 27% Infra here, it's not been a fun week. Saving grace - still 32% cash

I really don't like being this high on cash, but other than a general sense of doom, it's hard to pick a specific direction. Interesting times...