Abrdn European Logistics... Share Discussion Threads

[pyufak] 15/12/2024 18:17

At the end of the recent update - ASLI has 20.4m cash and 18m other assets (I would assume this 18m is the PV of the swap hedges which can be unwound as sales progress). Not trying to throw more posts into a potentially echo chamber of bullish-ness on the wind up but did wish to check if I am viewing the company's current discount and non-property assets correctly below please. Thank you

Am I calculating correctly that 38.4 (cash and other assets) less deferred tax + other liabilities 23.8m = 14.6m.

14.6m dividend by number of shares = 3.54p per share in cash

Friday close @ 58.6 minus 3.54 = 55.06
Using recent updated NAV of (73.2 - 55.06) dividend by 73.2 gives 24.78% discount

Is the above fair the correct way to view ASLI as we're winding up the company.

[chucko1] 11/12/2024 07:36

Last time they were at 40p (let alone .40p) was around the year 2000.

[2wild] 10/12/2024 17:14

Yes he speaks lots of nonsense. Although agree his views on REIT management fees.

[williamcooper104] 10/12/2024 10:33

Amusingly he talks on that podcast about just how well UK retail parks are preforming Shame he put down the only listed pure play on that

[chucko1] 10/12/2024 10:31

MP-M has been making a fool of himself for a while now. Still believes his own nonsense.

[spectoacc] 10/12/2024 08:12

Phayre-Smudge a book-talker - only have to look at the poor performance of TRY, or his comment that NAVs are "well well underpinned...by market activity".

He instigated the EPIC sale at well below NAV, EBOX has gone at below NAV, API portfolio has sold at below reduced NAV, CTPT went all-share below NAV, & so on.

REIT share prices reflect all this of course. TRY looks a particular mess of UK, European, and directly-held "grey" property to me, with an annual report showing a hundred and one holdings right down to miniscule size.

[hybrasil] 10/12/2024 07:49

There’s a lot of that about alright!

[tournesol] 09/12/2024 17:09

I remember that speaker's Australian cousin, Bruce Phayre-Dinkum. He was an expert on marsupial flatology. He postulated a correlation between market activity and methanogenesis which has always intrigued me.

[hohum1] 09/12/2024 08:17

Interesting comments on the sector from Marcus Phayre-Mudge on the Moneymakers podcast. Claims that, in general, NAVs are well underpinned by plenty of transactional activity. So perhaps we will get closer to 70p this year…

[skyship] 07/12/2024 14:54

Quite so. Negligible Risk, Reasonable Return. Fits in with my annual SIPP target of 15%pa.

[wshak] 07/12/2024 14:35

Skyship,Yes, that's similar to my view as a low end estimate.They have to do very badly to get below that.

[skyship] 07/12/2024 08:32

WShak - thnx, a good read for any newbies finding their way here.

My fallback position is for a total return of 70p by 31/12/25. That low figure and long duration would still provide a GRY of 18.55% @ 58.4p.

[stupidboypike] 07/12/2024 08:04

Wshak, very much appreciate the post.

[wshak] 07/12/2024 07:51

Stolenscone,That is exactly right.I could have just written that, but it wouldn't have made for a very good article.

[stolenscone] 06/12/2024 23:25

Wshak: so the basic principle is that the properties are fairly decent and the discount to NAV is so large at 60p and below that the fund manager will need to go some to make a big enough mess of it to lose money.

FWIW, I agree.

[wshak] 06/12/2024 20:21

Now freely available to read for anyone interested #ASLINB. It has gone ex-dividend for 0.87p since this article was written.https://open.substack.com/pub/paulypilot/p/bonus-article-asli?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

[makinbuks] 04/12/2024 17:20

That's my expectation and the basis I added to my heavily underwater position recently. I did expect to realise the 70+p by the middle of next year but it now looks like mid 26 at the rate they are going.

[sjl301] 04/12/2024 13:05

What is the general expectation for total return here? Net asset value circa 75p. My understanding is that this allows for selling costs, and so we could see 70p+ in capital return plus ongoing dividend?

I bought in at a little over 60p so the recent rally is just recovering some early losses. Watching closely!

[stolenscone] 02/12/2024 16:56

By way of disclosure, I work in the property industry.

I took a "letter of intent" being signed to be an equivalent to heads of terms being agreed. Essentially, that would be a precursor to lawyers being appointed. Nothing is binding on either party until the legal sale contract is exchanged. Unless the buyer needs a gap between exchange and completion, there is no real necessity to have one -- so it won't be final and binding until the lawyers have done their bit, that that could be immediately before a sale completes.

I also read the RNS as x3 in legals and x3 being prepped for market by appointing a sale agent / tidying up any loose ends / getting the brochure ready for a formal launch to the market in January. (Meaning that x20 have had nothing done to them yet to ready them for sale.)

As others have said though, the wind up is hardly a secret, so an off market approach is just as likely to yield a result as a full blown marketing campaign.

[dr biotech] 02/12/2024 13:47

I’ve seen other companies issue LoIs and I’d say they are worthless. Legally non binding, just saying they are “very interested”. Bit like a memorandum of understanding. Hopefully the recent low was the bottom though. May get more of these when the API money settles.

[pavey ark] 02/12/2024 12:16

Google gives rather low status to LOI and it is very far from binding.
The crucial point from all of the above is the exact definition of "commenced sales processes" ....at one end it could involve lawyers and detailed surveys (potential buyer is going to some expense so must be serious) or as has been suggested ....a glossy brochure is in the post.

[garbetklb] 02/12/2024 11:54

Agree with Pavey that the RNS is pretty unclear. I'd guess it means 3 + 3, rather than 6 + 3.

And a LOI is rather short of Exchanged.

However, with them also stating "An initial return of capital is expected by early 2025 at the latest", I'd hope that means that they are pretty confident that sales will more than keep up with loans becoming due, allowing for a more than token return to shareholders soonish.......

I'd interpret "early" as no later than March - and adding "at the latest" wasn't necessary......

Maybe they are trying to counter investors' impression of a leisurely stroll, whilst still collecting fees......?

[mr euro] 02/12/2024 11:34

Agree with this;

"A glass half full view would be that they are close to selling six and another three could move into this category in early January.......or not !! ??"

[mr euro] 02/12/2024 11:33

There are always exceptions however I would say a LOI has a 90% chance of completing on the sale.

"Commenced sales processes" is just that. That could mean they have organised an initial meeting with an estate agent, or more. One would hope its the latter.

[pavey ark] 02/12/2024 11:05

I would suggest that ALL the properties are up for sale.

LOI is (I think)far from a sale confirmation.

All depends on " commenced sales processes" and whither this is more significant than a LOI....I suspect it is.

A glass half full view would be that they are close to selling six and another three could move into this category in early January.......or not !! ??