Abrdn European Logistics... Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 04/9/2024 09:50

EBOX hadn't rebased their NAV to a net realisable value ASLI have

[kernelthread] 04/9/2024 09:46

14% off the recently claimed NAV of 74.4p would be 64p here, so not a lot really.

[spectoacc] 04/9/2024 08:25

And yet. If you sell the whole co, stamp duty is 0.5%.

If you sell individual properties, stamp duty is 5%.

Not sure same applies on European assets - @Wc104 will know I bet - but there should be a premium for buying co over buying individual properties, of c.4.5%.

[gary1966] 04/9/2024 08:21

Yes disappointed with EBOX but not sure that story has ended yet with Brookfield in the wings. I would also say that there will probably be quite a difference in pricing between selling individual properties as opposed to a whole company sale, hence why the directors’ opted for a managed wind down.

[spectoacc] 04/9/2024 08:18

Sadly, I agree. Only slight caveat is that ASLI have at least knocked their NAV back recently (as did API).

[llef] 04/9/2024 08:16

All share bid by Segro for Ebox.
At last nights prices it was a 14% discount to March NAV.

To my mind, that doesn't augur terribly well for bids close to NAV for ASLI.

[hindsight] 03/9/2024 11:54

Its suggested deal was at 11.7% discount, imagine thats weighing here

[bramcych] 02/9/2024 16:15

There is a report that Blackstone will buy €1bn of European logistics real estate from Burstone to add to their major holdings in logistics real estate. Builds through a series of deals. I wonder what could be next....?

[giltedge1] 02/9/2024 11:01

I was hoping for 74p in 12 months, but opportunity cost, in waiting while market rises. Board seems v slow & guess managers are sitting on a beach & not selling our properties. Also have history (bad) of overpaying for assets especially Madrid. Winding up was best option for this badly run trust. Was in right sector but grossly underperformed.

[ammons] 01/9/2024 13:45

As an old boy looking for relative safety and income I will happily take 70p in a year plus divis having bought at just over 59p (average).

[makinbuks] 01/9/2024 11:36

I'm on board with the thesis and doubled my very small stake accordingly. However, just to point out a counter argument, EU rates are falling because economic activity is weak. Mathematically if rates fall NAV increases but whether you can sell at NAV in a market where demand is falling and recession is threatened is debatable. Lower rates are not a panacea. Further to fully realise NAV by October next year they need to be moving a lot quicker than they currently appear to be. Even if a deal is done it can take (say) six months to realise cash

[paulboz] 01/9/2024 11:27

Thanks, Sky. The risk/reward ratio looks pretty good to me. There are no guarantees, of course, but the chances of a return less than the inflation rate look very slim IMO. Obviously, hoping for a lot more than that.

[skyship] 31/8/2024 21:16

PB - yes; I still feel we'll see 74p+ by 31/10/25. So a 17%GRY or a 20% profit from the current 61.6p in just 14months.

EU inflation falling fast; and interest rate cuts will surely be following; with the next in just 2weeks time. So NAVs will be rising...

[paulboz] 30/8/2024 19:59

Skyship: do you still see ASLI returning around a GRY of around 18% ? The share price has stagnated over the past couple of weeks in light of the NAV reducing a tad.

[llef] 30/8/2024 16:19

another cut would be helpful background economic data for ASLI sales...

from bloomberg:
"Euro-area inflation plunged to the lowest level since mid-2021 – reinforcing arguments for another cut in interest rates by the European Central Bank in less than two weeks."

[chucko1] 30/8/2024 15:36

Holding for the long term is one thing, but holding through a period when medium/long rates rose by over 450bps is by far the dominating factor behind the loss of value. Even with the best management, nearly all of this loss was unavoidable. Worse still, real rates at MINUS 200bps was a loud call to run for the hills.

By keeping the REIT alive, I suppose it invites the chance of lower rates, but I would suggest that they are about where they should be given a 2% inflation target. You would normally expect rates to be some 100-150bps over this, and it is worth noting that Euro rates in 5 years are well below that today. UK rates could have further to drop, but the new government may be on the verge of fuelling a significant failure to reach the 2% target in the long run, and so perhaps GBP 4% medium/long rates is appropriate.

So, with all that, the main boost would be a gradual reduction in discount to NAV, which itself, I fear, is being jeopardised by reawoken UK inflation concerns. I'm not betting on any significant rises in non-winddown REITs, but I would agree that they represent very good risk/reward, so I am running a blended portfolio of REITS in both runoff and otherwise.

Any more (significant) sops to the unions (and other non-productive "ideas") and even that portfolio is likely to find non-UK investments as preferable.

[skyship] 30/8/2024 15:22

chopp1 - sorry; but perhaps time to learn that shares are no longer for buying and holding as in the period pre 2000. Play the peaks and the troughs. Trade a little. It needs more skill and more application; but I'm sure you might manage.

Start doing that with a couple of stocks in your portfolio; then build out as results reward and confidence grows.

I'm no expert; but I compound my SIPP by 15%pa (see JDT threads) through active management; by NOT buying and holding.

I'm certainly no dimwit; and I do care that others make money on the stock-market - hence my many threads.

Good luck to you...

[spangle93] 30/8/2024 09:23

write up of the recent results

"The cost of winding down has wiped a chunk off the value of Abrdn European Logistics Income (ASLI), although stabilising property markets should make offloading its portfolio of warehouses easier...."

"The Reit continues to trade at a chunky discount of 17% to NAV and Rees said this likely ‘reflects caution over management’s ability to drive competitive tension in the sales process when the fund is seen as a motivated seller in the market’.

Investor returns will not only be driven by the prices achieved for the assets but also the timeline in which sales are completed and cash returned, he said.

[chopp1] 29/8/2024 16:30

See the latest news is that over €12m have been wiped off the NAV because of costs in volved in selling off the portfolio. I warned a long time ago that voting to discontinue was stupid given the costs involved and the “forced sale” issue. We will be lucky to see two thirds of our investment back. Another horrendously managed REIT.
If those investors who voted for discontinuation had been prepared to sit it out and wait for interest rates to drop,it would have been a different story. But no, the institutional investors have screwed us through their ridiculous impatience. Retail investors always get screwed in this sort of thing when the big institutions can just absorb the losses. I’m sick of it.

[alan pt] 23/8/2024 11:28

I would guess that, as usual "The Company will seek to return cash to shareholders in an efficient and fair manner that accounts for, among other things, the UK tax consequences for shareholders and the composition of the Company's shareholder register" actually means "We talked to a few big institutional holders and we are doing what they told us"

[williamcooper104] 23/8/2024 11:11

It does; they should be treated as capital for tax purposes - but "should" is doing a lot of work there and if it's material to you're tax position you ought to check it out Not sure why they aren't just doing the B share/redemption route

[makinbuks] 23/8/2024 10:58

Its an interesting step. Unnecessary in my view. I like the way SWEF are winding down. they realise assets and periodically compulsorily redeem shares. The accounting for that would automatically reduce the share premium account. The expenses associated with this are exceptionally low and the divided is maintained in percentage terms on your remaining investment.

Alternatively they simply buy back and cancel shares or do a tender.

Converting the share premium account implies distributing via dividends

[joe say] 23/8/2024 10:40

It's basically making a non-distributable reserve (i.e. one from which you can't pay dividends) into distributable (i.e. you can now pay dividends with this)