Abrdn European Logistics... Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 21/5/2024 07:50

Those who reacted quickly yesterday got themselves a good deal. Now up at 63p bid.

[williamcooper104] 20/5/2024 20:35

Yep - a lot of the renewables have continuation votes coming up

[spectoacc] 20/5/2024 19:53

Agree API still best. Can't see ASLI getting much above NAV (if it was worth more, they'd have had bids nearer to NAV), but can see API getting some of their better stuff away at premia. There'll likely be a point to exit both after some of the capital returns.

Losing count of the number of trusts on the wind-up trail - rightly so, when so many fail to cover divi in a meaningful way, have no hope of growing, and in some cases serve as vehicles to enrich sponsors/managers.

[williamcooper104] 20/5/2024 19:49

It does - sounds like they've got bids for parts of the portfolio - so my guess is somewhere around 65-75% Ought to be a quicker realisation than GABI and possibly API API still sticks out as best value

[spectoacc] 20/5/2024 19:46

If they're out of "..The majority.." by Q3 2025 (ie end-Q2 2025), what constitutes the majority? That's the key question for me, 51% or 90% makes a huge difference to the return calc.

[williamcooper104] 20/5/2024 19:14

So we ought to get 17.5-20% returns But if we get half of our capital back within 12 months there's every chance we can put into something else high yielding The home run would be to get the sane capital into a couple of wind ups before markets properly recover

[williamcooper104] 20/5/2024 19:12

The divi is uncovered What I've been doing with these wind ups is adding the EPRA eps in as a divi for half the wind up period If all goes well the epra eps = roughly the disposal costs and you can simplify it to you'll get full NAV back over the average holding period Eg if say 18 months, then EPS for 9 months and NAV at 18 months (in reality you'll get some ealier and maybe some later but that'll be rounding in your IRR so can simplify) EPS ought to be a little higher as management costs should be cheaper - but need to see details

[catch007] 20/5/2024 17:43

SKYSHIP: The company stated it would continue paying decreasing dividends so per worth adding circa 4-6p in dividend income to your numbers over the wind down period

[skyship] 20/5/2024 14:57

The Annual Report shows Dec'23 EPRA NAV at c95.7, ie c82p.

So let's say they achieve 78p - IMO quite do-able into a recovering Market.

They're talking about a pretty rapid wind-down by Q2'25. For the sake of caution, let's look at a GRY to 30/09/25. That would deliver 18.35%pa.

Earlier pay-outs would increase that figure; but looks like a good place to start.

Welcome others' calculations.

[williamcooper104] 20/5/2024 12:44

Yep and looks like an 18-24 month average holding period of 12

[speedsgh] 20/5/2024 11:07

Seems a sensible conclusion to the review. Now need to ensure that the investment manager's fees during the wind down period are reasonable and aligned with the best interests of shareholders.

[stun12] 20/5/2024 10:27

Managed wind-down. Lots of interest in the assets.

[stun12] 29/4/2024 10:50

EBOX is on something of a tear currently. Poor old ASLI getting left behind.

[stun12] 26/4/2024 08:27

Was there anything new in the annual report statement? All looked to be dated at the end of 2023 (80p NAV etc).

Doesn't seem to move around with the wider market. The FTSE is at rather nose-bleeding levels finally, so possibly a good thing.

[giltedge1] 05/4/2024 09:15

Very slow at reporting sale talks with two parties Sold vacant french unit, oldest held & relet Madrid both positives. All units modern & well let so if windup should get close to NAV. Vote at this years AGM. Would expect windup proceeds within a year as no offices & a strong market in logistics.

[stun12] 22/3/2024 10:03

Indeed. Some of the rise in debt yields which damaged the share price should start to reverse as longer term rates fall. Logistics is still the sweet spot in the CMBS market with a few big players (M7, Blackstone) hoovering up assets to add to their 'last mile' funds.

[williamcooper104] 22/3/2024 09:34

It is especially with euro rates trending down the forward looking NAV likely to be higher than current NAV Not that we will get a premium but will make it easier to get liquidity at book values

[stun12] 22/3/2024 09:22

I'd forgotten to look at the news. ASLI secured a new tenant for the Madrid warehouse at 8.7% above the previous rent. They didn't get a lease break fee from Arrival, but decided that getting them out was a better idea. New tenant will pay for site improvements.



Share price is looking a bit neglected down here - added a bit at just over 61p.

[williamcooper104] 04/3/2024 07:52

Remember Abdrn manage this and EBOX (they one 60 percent of Tritax with options to buy out the rest)

[williamcooper104] 03/3/2024 21:30

They'll do it as a property sale of whole Refet than a corporate disposal so should be less of a discount Plus they ought to have comprehensive vendor dd lined up So really ought to be NAV or maybe a little less - say 5% - for a quick sale 10% and either sue the valuers or sell assets individually I think they'll try and merge it with EBOX - I'd rather that than a sale at a big discount

[giltedge1] 03/3/2024 17:32

Guess no acquirer will offer NAV probably 10% discount so around £0.72 any thoughts?.

[stun12] 27/2/2024 15:48

Quite enjoying the slow rise here. I was tempted in by the NAV and the possibility of a portfolio or asset sale. No reason to leave yet, despite a very lacklustre market elsewhere. EBOX doing well too - wish I'd followed my instinct and bought when it dipped below 50p.

[neilyb675] 19/2/2024 14:45

62.30 - 62.60 (GBX) at 14:39:56
on Market (LSE)

[williamcooper104] 19/2/2024 12:39

Expect it will be round up like EPIC (though hopefully at a better price/close to NAV) Part of reason why I'm comfortable with EBOXs tight divi cover as either they make it post the 2026 refi or else they cut and are forced to sell up