Abrdn European Logistics... Share Discussion Threads

[giltedge1] 02/9/2022 15:54

Added some more at £0.97 was going to wait but Euro gaining & yielding over 5%. Index Linked so in theory revenue should rise by 10% in 12 months. Good Luck.

[giltedge1] 23/8/2022 09:42

Like to add more, great to have indexed linked rents, but share price falling, so will wait & see. I prefer USD/EUR investments at the moment GBP struggling & can only get worse.

[speedsgh] 10/8/2022 13:00

Waddinxveen Extension and Lease Signing -

abrdn European Logistics Income plc (the "Company" or "ASLI") announces that it has signed the purchase agreement for the acquisition of the recently completed warehouse extension at Waddinxveen, the Netherlands, for a total net purchase price of €4.9 million.

The Company exercised its right of refusal over this development located directly adjacent to the existing warehouse bought in 2018. This land, owned by and developed with our tenant Combilo, has provided an additional c. 2,400 sqm of cooled warehouse space and 157 sqm of office space. The extension will allow Combilo to service its growing client base, including a Swedish supermarket chain. The lease runs concurrent with the original, with over 11 years remaining, and will generate additional rent of c. €250,000 per annum, reflecting a yield of 5%. The extension complies with the latest energy neutrality standards in the Netherlands and includes 16 rooftop solar panels, resulting in an A+++ energy rating.

This asset management initiative is expected to be immediately value accretive and enhances the income producing qualities of this modern, well located asset.

In addition, the Company is pleased to announce that it has agreed a new 5 year lease with ADER at Unit 3, part of Phase II at its Gavilanes site, Madrid. ADER provides distribution services to companies in the freight and logistics sector and is consolidating its operations in the Gavilanes area with the leasing of this second, 7,375 sqm building. The annual contracted rent of almost €470,000 per annum is fully CPI indexed and in line with expectations.

Evert Castelein, Fund Manager for ASLI, commented: "Supporting our tenants as they expand is a key part of our strategy. This is another example of how flexibility and the option to extend buildings within our portfolio can create additional value over the medium term."

"The new lease with ADER not only improves the portfolio's income characteristics, but also underscores the desirability of the Gavilanes assets, which offer access to c. six million people across the wider Madrid area."

[alan pt] 14/6/2022 14:29

Back on a 10% discount now, not nearly as steep as the EBOX discount, but I do much prefer the ASLI mid box/last mile focus

[speedsgh] 08/6/2022 11:39

Interesting comment on the sector by Marcus Phayre-Mudge, the highly-rated fund manager of TR Property Investment Trust (TRY) in their recent results...

Industrial and Logistics

2021 was yet another record year in terms of take up, capital value growth and, all importantly, further shrinkage in the amount of vacancy. The UK market saw take up exceed 50 million sq ft and vacancy is now below 3% across the whole range of 'big box' unit sizes. Like for like rental growth for Segro's portfolio was in excess of 5% and this has driven yields nationwide 75-100 bps leading to huge capital growth. Yet urban logistics has been even hotter, with investors focused on the supply inelasticity of infill markets. Greater London prime industrial transactional evidence now regularly sees equivalent yields (i.e. based off market rents which are higher than passing rents) of less than 3%. This price inflation has been fuelled by evidence of another year

of rental growth exceeding 10%. Segro reported rental growth averaging 13.1% in its UK portfolio during 2021. Savills estimate that inner London rents have moved 25% in the last year alone.

UK industrial transaction volumes reached £16.7bn in 2021, 113% growth on 2020 and 152% growth on the five year average. Given such an acceleration we must closely watch the fundamentals, there may well be capital seeking deployment without due consideration. However, for now, the demand/supply imbalance at the occupier level is driving rental growth. The entire UK industrial market recorded a drop in available space to 18.1million sq ft, a contraction of one third over the year. No wonder rents are rising.

On the Continent, we have also seen market rental growth outstrip annual indexation. This is set to continue even with the printing of record high annualised inflation of 5.1%. Segro are the only fully pan-European listed player and they reported 4.1% like for like rental growth across Continental Europe for 2021. We remain confident that in many key markets this level of growth will be exceeded in 2022. Across Continental Europe, online sales penetration now averages 15-18%, still a long way behind the UK at c.28%. Shortening supply chains and reshoring has driven demand in cheaper markets such as Poland. Savills European Logistics Survey 2021 showed that 46% of all occupiers canvassed expected to increase their warehouse requirements over the next year.

Availability continues to shrink, with vacancy down from 5.1% to 3.5%, with record low levels in Dublin (1.1%), the Netherlands (3.3%), Czech Republic (1.7%) and take up levels well ahead of decade averages with Madrid (+9), Poland (+13%) and the Netherlands (+10%). For the best space, rents are responding very rapidly and we expect average rental growth to exceed 5% across the Continent. However in early May this year (post the year end) Amazon announced a dramatic pause in its expansion programme. Whilst we believe that these comments were focused on their domestic US market, it has caused reverberations across all logistics/ecommerce real estate markets. Major owners and developers such as Segro and Tritax point to full orderbooks and strong transactional evidence, forward looking equity markets took fright. Share prices of these two names are down - 22% and 17% respectively, calendar year to date.

[speedsgh] 30/5/2022 13:39

NAV
111.3p (EUR 1.316) as at 31/3/22
108.5p (EUR 1.291) as at 31/12/21
109.0p (EUR 1.267) as at 30/9/21
106.1p (EUR 1.236) as at 30/6/21
103.6p (EUR 1.216) as at 31/3/21
107.9p (EUR 1.201) as at 31/12/20
102.9p (EUR 1.127) as at 30/9/20
103.0p (EUR 1.128) as at 30/6/20
99.92p (EUR 1.127) as at 31/3/20
94.21p (EUR 1.11) as at 31/12/19
94.95p (EUR 1.07) as at 30/9/19
95.85p (EUR 1.07) as at 30/6/19
91.13p (EUR 1.06) as at 31/3/19
96.7p (EUR 1.08) as at 31/12/18
97.3p (EUR 1.09) as at 30/9/18
98.3p (EUR 1.11) as at 30/6/18

[catch007] 30/5/2022 09:38

Solid update imho and share price should benefit. My concern has been the number of fund raises however the river dried up on the last one and hopefully ASLI will focus on asset management initiatives now.

[cwa1] 30/5/2022 07:21

From this morning's update:-

Highlights

-- Portfolio valuation increased by 2.5%, or EUR16.8 million to EUR682.8 million, reflecting inflation-linked rental growth and further yield compression
-- NAV per Ordinary share increased by 1.9% to 131.6c (GBp - 111.3p 1 ) (31 December 2021: 129.1c (GBp - 108.5p 1 )), reflecting a NAV total return of 13.0% (in Euro terms) for the 12 months to 31 March 2022

-- EPRA Net Tangible Assets 2 increased by 2.2% to 139.4c per Ordinary share (31 December 2021: 136.4c)

-- 100% of Q1 2022 rent collected
-- First interim dividend for 2022 of 1.41c (GBp - 1.19p) declared, payable on 24 June 2022
-- Construction of Madrid Phase IV scheduled to complete in late Q2 2022, increasing portfolio valuation to EUR763 million, using agreed purchase price

-- Agreement signed for the purchase of three French urban logistics assets , for EUR32.5 million, on completion of which the portfolio will comprise 16 urban logistics warehouses and 11 mid-box logistics warehouses

-- Issue of new equity raising GBP38 million (EUR45.6 million) to support near-term acquisition strategy

Evert Castelein, Fund Manager, abrdn, commented:

"It is very pleasing to report another quarter of NAV growth. This reflects both the strength of the European logistics market and the high quality nature of our diversified, modern portfolio.

"Logistics is a long-term growth story, fuelled by the acceleration of e-commerce across Europe, and increasingly the changes in how companies manage their supply chains. There continues to be an acute supply-demand imbalance across the entire European logistics market, with vacancy rates sitting at historically low levels and this is particularly true in urban areas where there is greater demand from other land uses. Our portfolio is also well positioned to benefit from rising inflation, with 70% of the portfolio's current income subject to full annual indexation."

[speedsgh] 19/5/2022 10:47

Q1 NAV update & 1st interim dividend declaration likely next week (last year released 24/5/21)

NAV
108.5p (EUR 1.291) as at 31/12/21
109.0p (EUR 1.267) as at 30/9/21
106.1p (EUR 1.236) as at 30/6/21
103.6p (EUR 1.216) as at 31/3/21
107.9p (EUR 1.201) as at 31/12/20
102.9p (EUR 1.127) as at 30/9/20
103.0p (EUR 1.128) as at 30/6/20
99.92p (EUR 1.127) as at 31/3/20
94.21p (EUR 1.11) as at 31/12/19
94.95p (EUR 1.07) as at 30/9/19
95.85p (EUR 1.07) as at 30/6/19
91.13p (EUR 1.06) as at 31/3/19
96.7p (EUR 1.08) as at 31/12/18
97.3p (EUR 1.09) as at 30/9/18
98.3p (EUR 1.11) as at 30/6/18

[giltedge1] 16/5/2022 11:05

I bought today 1.02 attracted by 4.7% yield, inflation linked rent reviews, & new buildings. Good yield for my SIPP.

[alan pt] 29/4/2022 22:26

Recent SERE results could be a good sign



"- Improved yield re-rating at the Rennes logistics investment, delivering a valuation increaseof €1.4 million, or 7.1%
- Improved yield re-rating at the Hamburg office investment, delivering a valuation increase of €1.1 million, or 4.5%
- Improved yield re-rating at the Nantes logistics investment, delivering a valuation increase of €0.4 million, or 6.5%
- Improved yield re-rating at the Rumilly logistics investment, delivering a valuation increase of €0.4 million, or 4.0%"

[alan pt] 17/3/2022 16:10

Interesting to see East Riding Pension Fund nipping in and picking up 8% while the price was depressed:


Bargain for them and pension funds are normally there for long term, so a good bit of stability

[pavey ark] 11/3/2022 11:20

Topped up today and now in for an average 102p (including costs).

Not very impressive record here and wouldn't like to have been here since IPO but sense that things will (must) improve.

Only moved here when the discount appeared and I do think that e commerce will increase across Europe.

As usual "you pays your money you takes your chance "

[alan pt] 07/3/2022 17:39

Just calculated it to be sure:

31 Dec Value
NAV=487.5M
shares in issue=377628901
NAV per share=129.1

Estimated Current Value
NAV=487.5M+45.6M=533.1M
shares in issue=377628901+34545455=377628901
NAV per share=129.3

Marginal increase in NAV, since the issue was at a premium to NAV

Exchange rates have moved against the euro, so NAV in GBP is now 107.2

Price today hovering around 97, therefore a 9.5% discount on todays price

[alan pt] 23/2/2022 16:28

If you divide the 31Dec NAV by the number of shares NOW in issue (following the raise) then you get (more or less) to that Morningstar figure. But of course the NAV is now higher (if only because of the extra capital from that raise), so it's effectively a false reading, I believe. It should sort itself out in time :-)

[shieldbug] 23/2/2022 15:58

Alan PT. It seems odd that the NAV give in RNS and reports appears to be ex-income NAV. Only the website shows cum-income NAV - with no explanation. It seems equally odd that this NAV which is significantly lower and is the one used by the likes of Morningstar and thus by AJ Bell and others. For anyone glancing at (screening) the stock it looks as though it is still trading at a premium.

[alan pt] 23/2/2022 11:50

shieldbug I always use the NAV from the last valuation personally:

On my spreadsheet, at todays exchange rate, I get just over 7% discount

[alan pt] 23/2/2022 11:37

ASLI borrowings in euros, so a significant interest rate advantage vs UK REITs but the flip side of that is definitely currency risk

Even a decent yield (for the sector), I make it 4.7% at todays rates. So I agree, looks good for medium term. Only slight issue - hard to see what changes the direction in the near term?

[riverman77] 23/2/2022 11:08

Looks good value here on a 6-7% discount - a 12% nav return (in eur) over the year is pretty solid. Share price probably hit by a combination of rising interest rates, sterling strength versus euro, and the capital raise, but I think this should do well over the medium term.

[catch007] 23/2/2022 10:50

SP fall is overdone imho good activity in the portfolio, decent rent collection now and quality tenants.

[catch007] 23/2/2022 10:50

SP fall is overdone imho good activity in the portfolio, decent rent collection now and quality tenants.

[shieldbug] 22/2/2022 15:17

Speed - Do they have any funds to act on that pipline? The recent raise may have left them a bit short?

[alan pt] 22/2/2022 09:46

Well, I certainly picked the wrong point to buy back in...

The results aren't bad, perhaps just a little disappointing compared with some of the recent UK industrials numbers, but sentiment seems to be against it