By Amy Harder and Christian Berthelsen 

WASHINGTON--A long-awaited study by the Obama administration has concluded that lifting the nation's four-decade ban on exports of U.S. oil wouldn't raise American gasoline prices and could even help lower them, raising the stakes in the debate over whether to lift or relax the ban.

The report, issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, an analytic division of the Energy Department, is expected to provide momentum to efforts by the oil industry and its supporters in Congress to end the ban. The effort has gained traction in Washington this year, though such a change still faces steep hurdles before it could ultimately be adopted.

The conclusions were widely expected by the industry and policy makers after the division issued a series of other studies leading up to the final one over the past year laying the groundwork for the findings.

An executive summary of the report, obtained by The Wall Street Journal, said lifting the ban could actually produce small benefits for the U.S. economy. The full report is expected to be released later Tuesday morning, according to a spokesman for EIA.

"Petroleum prices in the United States, including gasoline prices, would be either unchanged or slightly reduced by the removal of current restrictions on crude-oil exports," the report said.

The report, whose findings are laden with caveats, said price impacts were ultimately dependent on the complex intricacies of the oil market. Still, it concluded that removal of export restrictions would encourage oil companies to produce more crude as they attempt to capture higher overseas prices, which in turn would press global prices lower if foreign producers don't reduce their own output.

Because most U.S. retail gasoline is priced based on the global benchmark rather than the national one, it could lower prices at home, the study concludes.

The Republican-controlled House is expected to vote on legislation lifting the ban as soon as this month, with the Senate expected to consider it next year.

More than a dozen oil companies, including Continental Resources Inc., ConocoPhillips Co. and Marathon Oil Corp., have been lobbying Congress for the past year, arguing that allowing unfettered domestic oil exports would eliminate market distortions, streamline U.S. petroleum production and stimulate the domestic economy.

On Capitol Hill, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R., Alaska) and House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio), have been making the industry's case, and in recent weeks, key Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey have expressed a willingness to support oil exports as part of a broader legislative deal. It isn't clear, however, what kind of deal that would be and whether it would have the support of the industry and Democrats.

Write to Amy Harder at amy.harder@wsj.com and Christian Berthelsen at christian.berthelsen@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 01, 2015 10:59 ET (14:59 GMT)

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