Totally Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 08/5/2024 21:24

Is the resilience contract the last remaining 111 contract, with all those held by Vocare at the time of acquisition now having been lost or let go?

Given Vocare's (i.e. Totally's)relatively low ranking, at least according to the DHU summary stats, for how long are they likely to be able to retain the resilience contract (without investment to improve the performance)? What economies of scale have been lost in their 111 operation as the scope has declined?



It's fine focusing on higher margin contracts as long as the company can finance them. Lower margin urgent-care contracts have in the past effectively financed the business through the negative working capital feature, haven't they? We saw the impact on the balance sheet, and cash in particular, when the North West London UCC & various covid-related contracts finished.

[sikhthetech] 08/5/2024 20:26

1gw

re: "SSoT"

TLY won't win every contract nor would they want to do so. As previously mentioned, they have stated they are prepared to give up unfavourable contracts.

DHU, operates in the midlands and is a non-profit organisation. TLY is a commercial business, so I think this is probably one of the contracts they thought would be good to give up.

Crucially, TLY has a diversified business model, which adapts very quickly to requirements. They can concentrate on higher margin subsidiaries.

The £13m contract from NHS England with TLY as it's sole resilience partner for NHS 111 is a great achievement. That one 1 year contract value is greater than TLY's mcap. All the other subsidiaries, other areas, inc all 4 UK Nations and Republic of Ireland, are in addition.

"As announced on 10 January 2024, NHS England committed to a further year with Totally as its sole resilience partner for NHS 111, increasing the scope of the contract, renewed at c.£13 million per annum."


It's best to try and understand the business model.

[bmcollins] 08/5/2024 18:51

@fenners
You really have taken up a lot of words to moan, ever heard of precis or do you just like the sound of your own voice ?

[fenners66] 08/5/2024 14:19

On the other board
bmcollins - who pays to use advfn - is Moaning , that other people are in their eyes , moaning....!

I guess irony is lost on that sort.

Really what they want is an echo chamber where all they read are positive views...so they don't have to question their gambles , even as they dive to all time lows..

We cannot help everyone , but it does not matter , if just one person questions their gamble/investment with eyes open as points are brought to their attention then mission accomplished.

What that "moaner" needs to understand is - its not about moving the shareprice , its about understanding the companies , so we can 1, make money and as importantly 2, lose less money.

[bmcollins] 08/5/2024 13:50

@quazie12
So does that make you a perpetual moaner then ?
If so good luck !

[quazie12] 08/5/2024 13:48

Every board on ADVFN is the same. If you want a safe space to wax lyrical then just attend the AGM where difficult questions have been filtered out. You will find on here that a number of negative posters are or have been shareholders but are simply not going to STFU because you dont find some quality analysis east reading

[bmcollins] 08/5/2024 12:39

I have never seen a board where people give running commentaries on everything including, I guess, each time a MM breaks wind ?
If you don't like the stock, fine, but why waste time on the board telling everyone how right they are, find a stock that you do like ?
By the same rationale, if you do like the stock why on earth engage in long winded diatribes with people who don't, it's not as if that is going to push the price up is it ?

[1gw] 08/5/2024 12:09

SSoT NHS 111 contract was valued at £7m when renewed for 1 year in April 2022. Presumably it would have had a similar annual value (hopefully slightly higher) for the year starting in April 2023.



If that is now transferring to DHU, how much cash will disappear from the Totally balance sheet as any "negative working capital" unwinds? And does the loss of the 111 contract have any implications for the viability of Totally's Out of Hours GP service in the region?

[willow6501] 08/5/2024 11:58

Can’t say results impressed me at all

100M+ turnover with minuscule profits, very little cash and only one contract win this year.

Just don’t see the investment thesis here.

Not surprised to see it retract today, mug punters pushed it higher yesterday.

Expect it to retrace to all time lows.

[jugears] 08/5/2024 11:43

And down she goes, no surprise there what so ever!

[1gw] 08/5/2024 11:29

Looks like it's now official and DHU Healthcare have the regional Midlands NHS 111 contract. Totally has therefore presumably lost the SSOT (Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent) 111 contract.

"The move to provide a single service for the Midlands, means DHU will also become the NHS111 provider for Staffordshire – a new area it will mobilise services into."

[pierre oreilly] 08/5/2024 08:22

Rise yesterday was pi gambler/traders buying. That means falls now die to pi trader/gamblers selling. Even with a high percentage rise yesterday, most will be exiting with a loss due to the spread. Until and unless insts make some buys, or increase their holdings, this will always lose any trader led rises.Unfortunately, the last Rnss show a CFD buy (probably for a client), and a large insts sell I feel for those sucked in yesterday now stuck at a loss. But they did tell you over and over that the environment is tough (meaning invest where the environment is positive).

[nobbygnome] 08/5/2024 08:11

I really don’t care 1gw! Your forensic analysis of BYOT didn’t go too well and when you previously invested in TLY you sold at 10p before the price went to 40p. Forgive me if I ignore your fatally flawed analysis of companies….

[1gw] 07/5/2024 21:50

So what do you think they were referring to when they talked about improved performance, nobby? What is it that has improved, and with respect to what baseline?

[nobbygnome] 07/5/2024 21:02

What a muppet you are 1GW. Yes I know you are trying as hard as possible to find any inconsistency because you detest STT……

[1gw] 07/5/2024 19:39

"Totally is pleased to report improved performance"

Does anyone understand what they are referring to in this statement?

Not revenue presumably:

H1'23 £70m
H2'23 £65m
H1'24 £56m
H2'24 £50m

Underlying EBITDA?

H1'23 £3.4m
H2'23 £3.5m
H1'24 £1.1m
H2'24 £1.2m

Very marginal to call that an absolute improvement, given the same 1H-2H pattern as in FY23. Slightly better perhaps expressed as a % of revenue (EBITDA margin).

Are they just referring to stopping the slide on gross cash?

End-1H'23 £7.4m
End-2H'23 £6.5m
End-1H'24 £1.7m
End-2H'24 £2.3m

But that's problematic given the £2.9m delayed payment that they apparently had expected to be received in 1H but which slipped to early 2H. And then there's the suggestion that cash may only have increased in 2H to the extent debt increased given they say that "net debt remains unchanged."

So is it really the net cash/debt trend where they can show better performance?

End-1H'23 £7.4m Net Cash (excl lease liabilities)
End-2H'23 £4.0m Net Cash
End-1H'24 £0.8m Net Debt
End-2H'24 £0.8m Net Debt

Again, that would not look like an inflection point if it were adjusted for the £2.9m which slipped from end-1H'24 to start-2H. But debtor management is part of performance and it is something if they can claim to have halted the slide into further net debt.

In terms of the shareprice reaction, a bit like with Carclo, the TU could have been worse and that seems to have merited a decent bounce. Similar to Carclo they highlighted that they were OK on their banking covenants. That's quite a low bar.

[sikhthetech] 07/5/2024 17:20

NHS Planning guidance released only last month. Increased opportunities.
To show how quickly TLY adapt, they have already mobilised 2 new services within a month!


"Since the publication of NHS planning guidance for 2024/25 last month, Totally's management has seen increased opportunities to support commissioners in managing demand and reducing waiting lists and the Group has rapidly mobilised two new services to directly reduce waiting times for elective care. "


NHS Guidance 2024-25:

Priorities and operational planning guidance 2024/25

"The 2024/25 priorities and operational planning guidance focuses on the recovery of our core services through continuous improvement in access, quality, and productivity, whilst transforming the way we deliver care and create stronger foundations for delivery in the future."

[sikhthetech] 07/5/2024 16:21

Micro,

"I really don't think goodwill considerations will be a top priority when recruiting a new CEO!"

Yes, funny that. It was one of 1gw's suggestions months ago and never happened.

He does have a long history of posting BS, stories, which never come true.

Other 'plausible sounding suggestions' which turned out to be fiction include and still no evidence:

Material selling by IIs from 27th July 2023. NEVER happened.
AGM a fiasco. NEVER happened.
Placing as they haven't got cash. NEVER happened.
Last year's fy divi won't be paid. They paid it.

The list goes on and on.. 1gw has no credibility.


For someone who portrays himself as knowledgeable and well researched, it's surprising that virtually all his suggestions turn out to be false, fiction, BS.

[1gw] 07/5/2024 16:12

Maybe not for a new CEO - although they haven't announced their intention to replace Wendy, have they?

For a new CFO, or whatever the new "Head of Finance" is called, I would have thought sorting out the balance sheet and regaining some credibility on financial reporting would both be high priorities. For both of these the upcoming full year results could be an important milestone.

I would have thought taking an axe to the goodwill would be a good start-let the market see that the company gets it - and in any case the auditors may not leave them with much choice. But would there be any unpalatable consequences of rebasing the goodwill?

I have to say this morning's TU was not a good start, if the new financial reporting regime is supposed to be already in place. The apparent issues on cash generation vs net debt and FY23 vs 1HFY24 comparators won't do much to restore confidence. When even Alliance News appears to misunderstand it, surely that's a sign they've tried to be too clever?

[microscope] 07/5/2024 15:24

Good to see the company turning the corner. Nice improvement is ebitda, and much tighter financial control with cash, and debt, under careful management by the company.

Low margin work being weeded out should mean improvement can continue despite tough marketplace.

Think the market was kind of expecting this, but had been reluctant to reward the company until seeing it in print. Looks like something of a bowl on the chart and suspect might get a nice spike before long.

Lot of stale bulls have gone but no doubt there'll be a few more to flush out on the way; anyway, things looking far more positive I feel, now.

I really don't think goodwill considerations will be a top priority when recruiting a new CFO! (typo amended lol), much more important and relevant issues for a new CFO. :)

[1gw] 07/5/2024 14:09

Alliance News caught out by the change from FY23 (revenue) to 1HFY24 (ebitda) as the comparator? Underlying EBITDA expected to fall by 2/3 YoY isn't it?

"Totally said it expects full-year revenue to fall by around 22% to GBP106 million from GBP135.7 million a year earlier, but predicts earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation will double to around GBP2.3 million, up from GBP1.1 million."

[sikhthetech] 07/5/2024 13:26

Sharecast


Totally flags solid full-year performance in challenging market

[1gw] 07/5/2024 12:51

Why do they report revenue relative to FY23 but underlying EBITDA and cash relative to 1HFY24 then? (Rhetorical question)

Underlying EBITDA is down from £6.9m in FY23 to £2.3m in FY24
Gross cash is down from £6.5m at end-FY23 to £2.3m at end-FY24

And the net position goes from net cash of £4m at end-FY23 to a net debt position of £0.8m if we assume that they are using gross cash less borrowings as their "net" position (and ignoring lease liabilities, consistent with the discussion in the annual report).