Totally Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 05/2/2024 21:09

Just looking at the 5-year shareprice chart in the context of that 2019 executive option scheme which paid out if the shareprice was over 35p for a 2 week period leading up to the vesting date in June 2022, if I've understood it correctly.

In early March 2022 the shareprice appeared to be heading back down towards 30p. On 7th March 2022 the company announced the acquisition of Pioneer, funding it mainly from existing cash resources - which meant drawing down cash balances materially and committing to the deferred consideration as well. This did the trick (big acquisition apparently funded largely internally) and the shareprice headed back up through 35p for the critical vesting period. But having used up cash resources in this way, the company was vulnerable to any downturn in the business, particularly the loss of negative working capital contracts.

I wonder if they've done a post-project appraisal of that acquisition and in particular the decision to fund it from existing cash resources?


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[porky8] 05/2/2024 20:28

We know what happens when 1GW gives it large ,last time 10p to 40p plus
This time 4.5p to ?

[nobbygnome] 05/2/2024 19:19

As always I traded but I did sell almost my entire holding at 39p ish. It was a TA based decision because the bowl formation didn’t play out….

[supernumerary] 05/2/2024 19:14

You can always rely on Nobby for a laugh :¬)

As far as I can see he bought all the way up, and ramped all the way down, and now he tells us 'it was all documented on this thread'. Certainly was, and I'm glad to see it admitted.

Not that it matters - if you're listening to Nobby and Tikh and their post hoc trades, you're probably a lost soul anyway :¬(

[1gw] 05/2/2024 18:42

nobby - "it was all documented on this thread." and "one of my most successful investments ever"

I can see a reference to intending to sell 20% of your holding at 40p and an after-the-fact reference 3 weeks later to taking some profits on the way up from 20p but not much else in the way of documenting your sells. Am I missing something? advfn search isn't always complete.

In terms of successful investments, that's compared with STX, SNG, OPTI, MIN? Any others?

-----------------------------
Nobbygnome - 23 Mar 2021 - 08:31:51 - 17541 of 21067Y
>> 2vdm
I am the long term holders of all long term holders. Been here for years. Bought heavily in the placing at 10p a couple of years ago and yes I was planning to dispose of about 20% of my holding at 40p at over a 100% profit
-----------------------------
Nobbygnome - 15 Apr 2021 - 09:02:11 - 17675 of 21067
No because I have taken some profits on the way up from 20p but what a magnificent company...
-----------------------------
Nobbygnome - 16 Apr 2021 - 12:19:35 - 17716 of 21067
Some of us aren't in a position to buy and hold for ever......I basically have to partly live off what I make on the market.
I still have a substantial holding and completely happy with my position.
-----------------------------
Nobbygnome - 27 Apr 2021 - 09:42:44 - 17737 of 21067
Just bought 7.5k. I am sure we will bounce around this level for a while but I am looking for the 59p which will complete the bowl formation in the next couple of months.
------------------------------
Nobbygnome - 11 Jun 2021 - 19:13:04 - 17813 of 21067
Well if nothing else the cash position suggests the results will be excellent. What a great company this is. Right place at the right time.....and still only a market cap of £74 million....
------------------------------
Nobbygnome - 05 Jul 2022 - 07:16:56 - 18938 of 21067
Likewise I bought more yesterday at 45p

[lawson27] 05/2/2024 17:05

Sharecast given it a mention, GLA

[nobbygnome] 05/2/2024 16:58

Well at prices all the way up but I sold a chunk with an average of 39p, so near the top. It was all documented on this thread. I’ve had a few small positions in the interim which I lost a small amount on but overall TLY is one of my most successful investments ever.

[arab3] 05/2/2024 16:49

what price did you sell at last time nobby ?

[nobbygnome] 05/2/2024 16:44

I think history is repeating itself here; 1GW is going to miss out on a big rise because he can’t see the wood for the trees!

[parob] 05/2/2024 16:17

Looking better here.

[1gw] 05/2/2024 16:13

The chairman is non-executive and newly-arrived, and so may not have quite such a good understanding of the state of the business as the executive directors.

So what about the long-standing CEO, Wendy Lawrence? She was appointed CEO in 2013 and so has had more than a decade to acquire shares in the company to demonstrate her belief in its future success. She is shown on the company site as owning 0.9m shares, worth around £44k at 5p/share. I think this actually omits 0.2m acquired in July 2023 through an employee share option scheme, so 1.1m shares if we include this. According to the annual report she had total remuneration of nearly £493k in FY22 and £283k in FY23, so a very low shareholding value in relation to remuneration over that decade as CEO. But where did her 0.9m (or 1.1m) shares come from? Well most of them came from an executive option scheme. She was the beneficiary of a 3m share option grant in 2019. As I read it, the proportion of the 3m that vested depended on the shareprice over the 10 business days leading up to the vesting date in June 2022 (25% vested at a shareprice of 35p up to 100% at 55p). Remarkably (?!) the shareprice did get above 35p for this period and the award paid out just under 50% meaning she acquired 1.4m shares. After selling around 50% of these to satisfy the tax liability she retained 0.7m shares from the option exercise.

What about the recently departed CFO then? She was appointed Finance Director in 2017 and CFO in 2021, so she also had a fair bit of time to demonstrate belief in the future by acquiring shares. Her total remuneration in FY22 was £297k and in FY23 was £206k. According to the 2023 annual report she held a total of 0.7m shares at 31st March 2023. Again, she was a beneficiary of the 2019 executive option scheme, being granted options over 1.5m shares of which 0.7m vested and 0.35m remained after settling the tax. A further 0.18m came from her exercise of a further option under an employee share scheme.

So the newly-appointed chairman is getting stuck in to the share buying, which is good to see. But the CEO and former CFO seem to have done exceptionally little in the way of share acquisition over many years, other than through an executive option scheme (thanks to the shareprice getting over 35p for a short period of time) and an employee option scheme.

Is it this experience that has made you sceptical of executive option schemes, perhaps, sikhthetech? btw 3m shares (Wendy's 2019 grant) is over 1.5% of the company isn't it?

[sikhthetech] 05/2/2024 12:51

Good to see the new Chairman, co-founder of Liberum, buying more, given he started working only last month.

I think his buy backs my assertion that the CFO resigned not sacked due to anything untoward.

A Chairman buying > 1% using his own money is much more powerful statement than being awarded huge >1% options.

[lawson27] 05/2/2024 12:12

Joined you and the Director for a few @5, GLA

[1gw] 05/2/2024 10:40

Share price and trading last week post the CFO resignation don't get any easier to rationalise with today's news.

I agree that the chairman buy RNS'd this morning suggests there is no imminent "bad news" follow-on announcement to come (such as fund-raising, financials restatement, intention to impair goodwill). Equally, it suggests no imminent "good news" follow-on announcement (new contract, or possibly the same subject matter as the "bad news" list above, but interpreted as a clearing-the-decks, this is the low-point moment).

So on what basis were the relatively big buys on Thursday and Friday made, which appeared to prevent the shareprice falling materially following the CFO announcement? Purely coincidental decision by someone to add/buy in, unaware of the news? Or a view that the CFO was so bad that just the bald announcement of her departure was good news? Or a view that there would be an imminent follow-on announcement - in which case what does the buyer do now?

Incidentally, anyone hoping that the departure of the CFO would lead to better attention to detail on company announcements will no doubt be disappointed to see the "updated" shareholders page - it appears they couldn't be bothered to check and update the numbers for shares in issue and shares not in public hands.

[nobbygnome] 05/2/2024 10:37

Seems like good timing so far….😂

[nobbygnome] 05/2/2024 09:34

Bought back in this morning after being out for a while. The director buy tells me all is ok cash wise and no fund raise is imminent!

[sikhthetech] 04/2/2024 18:10

Cameron,

"The real question is - can they fill those vacancies and retain staff?"

As they have repeatedly stated, they use a mix of permanent and agency staff, so it's nothing new or untoward.



It wouldn't make any sense to have all permanent staff given contracts are for fixed periods and nationwide.
eg their recent contract win of £13m is for 1 year from NHS England. Why would they employ full time staff and then have to make them redundant once the contract ends in a year!!

It makes perfect sense to have the flexibility to fit the business model.

[sikhthetech] 04/2/2024 18:00

1gw,

"They didn't sugarcoat the departure at all - no promise to do things differently, no reassurance that it wasn't triggered by a financial issue..."

Why would they? I know some companies where they do and give the impression that everything is great when in fact it's obvious it's not. ie Rthm/Trmr/Byot etc.


"also strange IMO that there is not much in the way of "normal" trading. Where are the small investor reaction sells? Wouldn't you expect to see more of these, even if the shareprice is supported by the larger buys?"

Why is it strange?

A lot of spin and different reaction to the same news. RTHM had 3 CFOs within a 6 month period and 3 CEOs within 18months. That didn't appear strange to you, whilst I saw it as a major red flag.


I expect we'll get some TR1s soon.
IIs adjusting their positions, buying/selling and hopefully new ones buying in, given the new Chairman's connections.

[nigeldoug] 04/2/2024 12:56

Storm in a teacup Lisa B going. New Chairman moving the game on.

[napoleon 14th] 02/2/2024 19:01

Listen to this & you'll see TLY in its' tiny irrelevance IMO...

[1gw] 02/2/2024 15:23

Share trading and pricing not looking any more logical or easy to interpret in relation to the news. It appears you can buy a fair bit at 4.3p but they're not moving the official bid (as displayed by advfn) down below 4.3p and the official offer is stuck at 4.5p. It also appears there were some deep pockets around to provide some support in the form of the (presumed) 500k buys. I presume the 1m trade was a sell from the timing (lower price than the 2 x 500k trades that preceded it).

Is someone trying to keep the price stable until next week when they expect more news?

[cameron72] 02/2/2024 12:44

Sikhthetech "They currently have over 50 vacancies, 1/2 of which were advertised within the past 4 weeks.
The rest within the past 6-7 weeks.

That doesn't sound like a company in financial trouble, does it?"

Well maybe it does. You can't say. The vast majority of those vacancies are frontline roles in services with firm KPIs for delivery. So it's unlikely that the vacancies will not be needing to be filled on a temporary basis while they try to recruit on a permanent basis. Which means use of agency/locum staff. And that would certainly add to financial pressures.

The real question is - can they fill those vacancies and retain staff?

[pierre oreilly] 02/2/2024 10:34

I wonder if the CEO left a note for the next CEO, if they can hire one, saying something like the old chancellors note to the new one saying 'there's no money left, it's all gone'?

[supernumerary] 02/2/2024 10:31

'over 50 vacancies' - the whole industry seems to be suffering shortages.

I suppose it cuts the wage bill :¬) At least until you have to pay a premium to recruit them :¬(