Wh Smith Share Discussion Threads

[justiceforthemany] 26/4/2024 16:35

Earnings are always H2 weighted.
FY EPS c. 80p is still on.
Summer is not surprisingly where most of the travelling and profits are made.

[essentialinvestor] 26/4/2024 15:50

Unless they have an extraordinary H2, I don't see how FY pre tax consensus is achieved.

Does anyone see it differently?.

[swinsco] 26/4/2024 15:16

Come back in a few days - the share price should start to settle. Definitely keeping an eye on it.

[panache1] 26/4/2024 14:24

This is annoying !

[essentialinvestor] 26/4/2024 13:31

Are those 'extra' closures in the US msrket I wonder?..

IF so, that may suggest SMWH are at risk of prioritising
space expansion over quality.

Needs to be watched.

[bigbertie1] 26/4/2024 13:29

I notice that in the final results in November they forecast 100 new stores to open and 22 to close in this fiscal year. In the interims they forecast 110 to open and
60(!) to close, to "focus on quality assets". That seems to suggest a lot more unsuccessful stores. Also an exceptional charge of £9m to impair "non-current assets".
I bought a few recently, now worrying!

[undervaluedassets] 26/4/2024 13:27

I think that this is an out and out bargain

Fall looks very technical (shares have fallen through recent support)

Meanwhile everything that the company is doing smacks of tremendous confidence.

And why not. turnover is at an all-time high by some margin.

no wonder they are opening 100 + new outlets.

[kangaroo joe] 26/4/2024 13:27

They bought US businesses and are leveraging those whilst gaining economies of scale. Rent is generally a percentage of turnover at airport shops which is where the growth is. Not similar to Tesco. But debt is highish but expected to reduce to 1.25 x by year end. Then there is the possibility of a return to employer of circa £100m in pension surplus as indicated in a letter from the UK trustees to members.

[justiceforthemany] 26/4/2024 12:39

Some super low P/E stocks FYI
VW 4x
PAF 4x
VTRS 4x
GM 5x
BT 5x

[essentialinvestor] 26/4/2024 12:39

Yes, but they don't own their locations, they are leased - hence the £1 bn in net debt.

History is littled with successful UK retail formats running in to trouble in the US market. Perhaps SMWH will be an exception to the general rule.

[justiceforthemany] 26/4/2024 12:34

It's a pure travel play for sure.
Locations are prime and extremely valuable, to someone....can it return to 1900p from 2021? Time will tell. Not far off the 2020 Covid lockdown lows, which is ridiculous but Marshall Wace are shorting this so no doubt manipulating the share price
(ABF was a cracking buy when it fell to 1400p wasn't it? Sold too early around 2200p)

[panache1] 26/4/2024 10:54

But this has the added benefit of being a takeover target with its travel stores etc

[essentialinvestor] 26/4/2024 10:50

justice, you can buy ABF, on the same multiple.

[justiceforthemany] 26/4/2024 10:48

Forward P/E of 14 not undemanding. They need to close unprofitable high street stores.

[ayl30] 26/4/2024 07:20

WH Smith looks ahead to busy summerhttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c1060fe8-c9d8-46b6-a9bb-e49085d3a0e0?shareToken=e04a4b78148facf722f661b2c6674485

[essentialinvestor] 25/4/2024 18:15

justice, Woolworths was an iconic British brand, as was BHS...(just two examples from a very long list).

It's a retailer that is betting very big on the US market. Can SMWH replicate their UK success stateside, is key to the valuation.

[ayl30] 25/4/2024 18:02

So frustrating! I think the FD should get his skates on and start selling this to the city, if he can't then let's sell the company to a competitor and realise some value

[justiceforthemany] 25/4/2024 14:57

Obvious M&A target.
Iconic British brand.
History.

[essentialinvestor] 25/4/2024 12:48

So including lease liabilities, SMWH net debt is now over £1 bn and a chunk of their current borrowing needs to be refinanced in 2026 - and this is currently at an ultra liw ZIRP era rate.

[essentialinvestor] 25/4/2024 12:25

I've got this on a watch list, however ABF (Primark) is available on 13 X approx, with a net cash position if you net off lease liabilities.

Is SMWH on 13 X such a bargain, given significantly higher gearing..?.

The North American result looks mediocre, on this read at least.

[panache1] 25/4/2024 12:12

Doesn't look like it

[hopefulalways] 25/4/2024 09:55

Price is recovering well. will it go back to 1260???

[undervaluedassets] 25/4/2024 09:18

It's a growth story here.

But some were expecting much more today. Well, they will sell out today and perhaps tomorrow.

meanwhile, the global growth story will continue.

[kangaroo joe] 25/4/2024 09:15

Strange market reaction! Is it debt? Has gone up but isn't that normal at the half year? Lots of investment in new stores costs money but bodes well for medium and long term surely? Interim dividend announced - what's not to like?

[panache1] 25/4/2024 09:02

And have to wait for the 5th June trading update...just before the super busy summer travel period !