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TNI Trinity Mirror

85.70
0.00 (0.00%)
03 May 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Trinity Mirror Investors - TNI

Trinity Mirror Investors - TNI

Share Name Share Symbol Market Stock Type
Trinity Mirror TNI London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Last Trade
0.00 0.00% 85.70 01:00:00
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
85.70 85.70
more quote information »

Top Investor Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 05/3/2018 13:11 by walbrock82
Trinity Mirror presents a dilemma for the ordinary investor.

After reading their results it profits are steady, but sales are declining at a rapid rate. One big factor for revenue collapsing is the fall in advertising of 25%.

Another observation I conclude is Trinity Mirror (now renamed Reach Plc) is operating rather efficiently, BUT the sector is in terminal decline. And given Trinity print division (accounts for 85% of sales) management looks set to run out of revenue to generate a decent level of profit and justifying their valuation.
Therefore, it needs to acquire sales at a premium price.

For more on charts, interpreting today’s results and share price forecast, click
Posted at 27/2/2018 10:36 by tnimirror
Interesting TNI investors have no idea what they're letting themselves in for. Northern and Shell aka Express have been dodging filing correct tax paperwork for 15 years and it's about to catch up with them. Interesting how much the CEO is prepared to send their way in rent given that there's a mass exodus from Lower Thames Street due to the mice infestation, and two free floors of space over at Canary Wharf. TNI also facing awks questions about their 39 week sabbatical policy on casual workers from HMRC. This stock is toxic. hxxps://financefeeds.com/lucid-markets-trading-changes-registered-office-address/
Posted at 01/2/2018 19:29 by freddie ferret
From another thread, may interest.

JTCod
1 Feb '18 - 09:43 - 66348 of 66349
0 0 0
This is a fascinating document issued a couple of months ago by Wells Fargo Securities entitled

Who Will Buy All the New Treasury Securities?



Some items which stand out to me are:

Fig 1: forecast new issue requirement for 2018 and 2019 are double that of 2017
Fig 2: Net foreign purchases drying up after 2014. 2016 was negative
Fig 3: Only foreign private investors were positive in 2017. Foreign official was negative
Fig 4: China reduced dollar reserves by $1 Trillion in just 3 years

Conclusion: Higher Treasury Yields Ahead
“Issuance of new securities by the U.S. Treasury Department has trended lower over the past six years as the federal budget deficit has narrowed. However, issuance is set to jump in the next two years as the deficit starts to widen again, and finding willing buyers for all the new securities may prove to be a bit more problematic than it has been over the past few years.
For starters, the Federal Reserve is effectively turning into a net seller of Treasury securities as it takes steps to shrink the size of its balance sheet. Foreign central banks, especially those in Asia, were quick to snap up Treasury securities when their currencies were experiencing upward pressure vis-a?-vis the U.S. dollar and their FX reserves were swelling. We forecast that most foreign currencies will appreciate modestly against the greenback in coming quarters, which probably will lead to increased demand for U.S. Treasury securities from the foreign official sector, but a return to the rapid rates of reserve accumulation among those central banks that characterized the last decade does not seem likely.
That likely will leave the private sector, both domestic and foreign, as the principal buyer of U.S. Treasury debt. Demand for safe-haven assets spiked during the financial crisis, leading to a notable increase in demand for Treasury securities from foreign investors. Similarly, new regulations caused domestic banks to ramp up their purchases of Treasury debt, but those buying needs look to have been largely fulfilled. Short of another financial crisis, a surge in private sector demand for Treasury securities stemming from risk management considerations does not seem likely. So if demand for Treasury debt does not keep up with issuance, prices of Treasury securities will decline. Said another way, yields on Treasury debt must increase to clear the market. This conclusion is consistent with our forecast, which looks for yields on U.S. Treasury securities to rise over the next two years.”
JTCod
1 Feb '18 - 09:52 - 66349 of 66349
0 0 0
To add to the pressure the US Treasury debt ceiling needs to be raised by early April at latest or the Treasury is forecast to run out of money. Remember the previous stand-offs on this issue?
Posted at 04/1/2018 10:14 by cityconindex
Kazoom, Where is the next resistance after 83p?

There have been 3 days of higher closing normally bodes well and reasonable turnover plenty of blues on the screen , seems like loads of retail investors.

I believe this stock is going to roam new highs if the phone tapping scandal is dealt with and the takeover is closed at a good price for TNI.

A small point some news saying pensioners are likely to live shorter lives lol

Good or bad depends which side of 20 you are, hopefully good for the shares

Cheers
Posted at 15/12/2017 12:01 by philjeans
Pension news is good - believe it or not.

It will demonstrate to the market, and it's investors, that the pension "problem" has been sorted. The extra contributions CAN be afforded and the lower remaining debt pile each year allows more free cash to be utilised.

TNI remains one of the cheapest stocks on the market - excellent cash generation, minimal debt and a huge and rising div.

BUY for me.
Posted at 11/12/2017 10:23 by cjohn
Hi Kazoom,

Do you need to be urgent in your returns?

I cultivate inactivity, can sleep well at night becasue I only buy at rock-bottom prices and almost never have a significant loser.

The last time was about three years ago when I invested in a stock without the usual defensive characteristics I rely on. Lesson learnt. Actually re-learnt....

The main drawback to my style is that I miss out on a lot of opportunities that don't reach rock-bottom. So perhaps I don't maximise returns, but on the other hand I make a pretty decent average annual return. I don't need to do better.

Currently, there aren't that many shares with the charactersitics I seek, so I'm about 50% cash, having taken profits on several.

I don't believe I have the temperament for short-term trading; though as you know sometimes value investors are able to take profits speedily. So I'm impressed that you are successful.
Posted at 30/11/2017 19:25 by kazoom
And bang on time, here's me with my sunny (pensions) disposition!

Actually probably a more neutral point in this instance.

I would imagine that the PF trustees are already of the view that they effectively have a lein on the freeholds (in the extremis case of liquidation, but also probably with a current veto over any significant undertaking relating to it).

So I don't actually think that either transferring the property or mortgaging it and transferring the cash to the the PF would really be of any benefit.

It would make a material dent in the deficit on paper but make the company balance sheet look much poorer and therefore (imho) substantially increasing the risk of the company ceasing to exist.

Bad for the PF and the company imho.


I think you are right to say that the companies ability to satisfy the pension going forwards is one of the worries for investors, but it seems to me that the PF trustees are not quite so nervous. Whilst you can say that it is a bit of no-brainer for them to support activities that strengthen the business there is really no compunction on them to support 'frivolous' activities like Dividends and Buy-Backs - even allowing for the extra payments into the PF, the security of the company being able to fulfil it's pension obligations would be stronger if those activities were not happening and I'm pretty sure the Trustees have the power to block them.

So whilst I am like others frustrated by the current share-price and in particular the impact it might have on the S&N deal. I think the pension scheme is being managed pretty sensibly so I wouldn't really want to make any material changes there.


As it stands there appears (to an outsider) to be a healthy relationship between the company and the Trustees, with what seem to me be to fair and reasonable compromises as to what the company has to pay to the PF in order to develop the business (particularly acquisitions) and reward the shareholders (dividends and buybacks).

SO imho it ain't broke so don't fix it (and as a change manager, that is rarely my point of view).
Posted at 30/11/2017 17:52 by cjohn
You'd have thought so, Twixy. But years ago when I was invested here, there was a suggestion that some unused property could be redeveloped residentially. Nothing ever happened. My impression is that they haven't really explored options here.

Hi Snicker,

Clearly a pension déficit and debt have points in common: ie they have a senior claim on the assets of the company and must both be serviced from cashflow.

You are bang on the mark, however, when you point out the volatility of pension assets and liabilities and hence déficits. this makes it more difficult to plan a coherent response in the pension situation faced by TNI.

Certainly, any attempt to pass a pension fund - even when it's in surplus - to third party providers is done at a significant premium for the thrid party. This makes common sense: as pension funds assets and liabilites are volatile and hence the third-party provider takes on risk.

I don't want to go into any more detail as I've already had a very long debate on pension deficts/surpluses with Kazoom over on the SIXH board. Kazoom has a more positive attitude to pension funds than myself and sees the possilbity of surpluses coming back to companies. In the case of SIXH this is a very small but serious possibility. My view is that huge pension funds like those of TNI waste managment time, absorb cash and are a source of worry to investors. TNI would be an obvious take over candidate without the gargantuan pension funds.
Posted at 30/11/2017 11:35 by cjohn
DMGT's pension schemes are even more houmungus than TNI's with assets and liabilities both in excess of 2.5 bn sterling. So a 250m déficit is less significant at DMGT than at TNI ie it is a smaller percentage of assets; less than 10%.

So they are in a considerably more comfortable position to TNI with regard to pension funding levels. And indeed only contribute 13m a year to their various pension schemes. (Possibly, at the next tri-annual valuation, that funding requirement will be reduced or eliminated.) Turnover and profitability at DMGT is also three times that of TNI; so in no way can the pension funds be considered a problem there - though, for reasons I've discussed ad nauseam with Kazoom, I still don't regard the DMGT schemes as a valuation plus.

TNI's liabilities at present value are roughly 1.9bn with 1.5bn assets. (So the déficit is 25%+ of assets.) Assets rose over the previous year, but, that performance is unlikely to repeat this year.

I think the lowly share price in part reflects investors' nervousness about whether future cash flows - in a declining business - can cover pension payments, residual hacking payments, restructuring and necessary acquisitions etc

There were stories in the press a while ago about the Northern and Shell deal being delayed or falling through and what this would imply for the viability of the pension schemes. The share price decline followed on.

My own feeling is that such worries are realistic but possibly marginally over-done.

Treat the 400m déficit as debt. How long, on current free cash flow rates, would it take TNI to pay the déficit off entirely? Maybe 8 years at a pinch. But then free cash flow will almost certainly decline over those eight years, if new turnover and free cash flow aren't acquired from Northern and Shell (or other takeovers.) So the worries are understandable.

Obviously, there has been a popular line on this BB that with rate rises, everything 'is gonna be alright". Rate rises may not happen as quickly as we'd like and asset values look pretty rich to me across US and UK stocks and may well fall back, increasing the deficit.

Is there another solution? One possiblliity is with regard to TNI's property empire. Why not borrow 200m against this - the current rough value of the freeholds - and drop this into the pension fund. (Obviously, it would be better to do this when asset values - stocks and bonds - are not as high as now.) They could then ask for a waiving of yearly payments for x number of years. The extra free cash flow would be used to pay down this much cheaper new debt.


The Company pays some 37m a year into the pension fund - more at the moment with the share buy back accompanying payments - It's a very expensive form of debt. Over 10% currently per annum. TNI would get a better mortgage rate than that.

I remain in two minds about this share. It's a genuinely difficult valuation case, in my view, and I continue to pass to much simpler shares which my tiny brain can cope with.

Good luck to holders; your optimism may well be rewarded.

All the best

CJohn
Posted at 29/10/2017 15:07 by cityconindex
Article in the Investors chronicle Friday. Positive rather than negative.

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