Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Trinity Mirror LSE:TNI London Ordinary Share GB0009039941 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +1.30p +1.73% 76.30p 76.00p 76.50p 76.50p 73.50p 76.50p 111,235 16:35:23
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Media 713.0 76.5 38.1 2.0 210.87

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Date Time Title Posts
19/1/201810:32TNI - The recovery thread!2,076
22/4/201612:49Trinity Mirror5,165
13/12/201217:37Trinity looks good!!17
21/6/201213:12MIRROR DOWN THE DRAIN2
21/6/201213:09What is the going rate for contempt of court?6

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Trinity Mirror (TNI) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2018-01-19 16:51:1374.626,2834,688.54O
2018-01-19 16:36:1376.30165125.90O
2018-01-19 16:35:2376.302,2701,732.01UT
2018-01-19 16:29:5576.405642.78AT
2018-01-19 16:29:4676.102317.50AT
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Trinity Mirror (TNI) Top Chat Posts

Trinity Mirror Daily Update: Trinity Mirror is listed in the Media sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TNI. The last closing price for Trinity Mirror was 75p.
Trinity Mirror has a 4 week average price of 70.75p and a 12 week average price of 67p.
The 1 year high share price is 124p while the 1 year low share price is currently 67p.
There are currently 276,366,178 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 212,439 shares. The market capitalisation of Trinity Mirror is £210,867,393.81.
kazoom: Hi FIM, Personally I don't have a clue on a pre-results (late Feb?) target price, but I do expect/hope to see a price in excess of £1.00 at some point this year. I do though struggle to see what drives some of the share-price movements here. If you look at the 2 year chart in the header you'll see : > A fall from 170 2 years (in fact on the way down from above 200) to about 70 in summer 2016 > A bounce back to c. 110 in Aug / Sept -16 > A fall back to the high 70s around the end of 2016 > A rise again to 120+ in Feb?mar-17 and again in May/June. > A fairly long run down (with one rally) to the 60s late 2017. > A recovery into the 80s and a pullback in the last few weeks. During this time - virtually nothing game changing has happened with the business - they have boringly met or slightly exceeded market expectations. They did increase the phone hacking provision, but from memory that was a tiny number of pence per share and they announced the S&N acquisition negotiations - but that did not obviously impact the share price. I personally cannot rationalise the substantial fluctuations in the share price over the last two years, so I would be foolish to make a prediction a month and a half out. However - as I've started to examine whether TA might be of any assistance here, I would observe that Thursday and Friday might be quite interesting : > If the price is up (above 77p) in early trading on Thursday it would break (upwards) a short term down trend - c. 7 trading days from 85ish pence (intra-day) > It would also confirm a bounce off the bottom of a two month up-trend - the top end of which will rise above 90p in mid-Feb. In all good faith I cannot recommend those indicators to anyone. But personally, my take is that on the ultra-short term (measured in days and weeks), short term (measured in weeks out to two months) and short-medium term (maybe 6 months out) it all looks rosy - if the price does not crash tomorrow. I also personally like the longer term view (2 years plus) , but that very much depends on getting the right deal with S&N or being prepared to walk away (it is still possible that assets from Johnston Press may become available at bargain prices) So personally I remain pretty bullish here - but everyone really needs to form their own opinion.
twixy: Thanks for taking the time Wallbrook82 to share your research. It seems to me your rear view mirror is working well; however, totally ignores the benefits of what the S&N acquisition would bring by way of operating synergies and savings. As TNI are in exclusive talks with S&N it’s clear to me that detailed DD is being conducted to avoid over paying (again). In my opinion the share price is unlikely to tumble in the medium term, since the ‘tumble’ has already happened. IF the acquisition happens and the price and deal structure is as I hope, the share price should recover from its current lows. All that will enable TNI to execute the business objectives, which if you know them, they are arguably executing to plan. As for quoting Warren Buffett, I think we can all wheel one of those out to suit our argument....when others are fearful....
gfrae: kazoom,even when they were £2 plus they did not look particularly expensive they were then on a multiple of 7 times odd with rapidly decreasing debt. The market then was not so concerned by pension fund deficits perhaps. With a share price below £1 the share price is surely discounting almost the worst possible scenario. I suppose it depends on whether you consider the share price at any particular time on it s merits at that particular time or whether you look on it relative to the price it was at some previous time.
cjohn: DMGT's pension schemes are even more houmungus than TNI's with assets and liabilities both in excess of 2.5 bn sterling. So a 250m déficit is less significant at DMGT than at TNI ie it is a smaller percentage of assets; less than 10%. So they are in a considerably more comfortable position to TNI with regard to pension funding levels. And indeed only contribute 13m a year to their various pension schemes. (Possibly, at the next tri-annual valuation, that funding requirement will be reduced or eliminated.) Turnover and profitability at DMGT is also three times that of TNI; so in no way can the pension funds be considered a problem there - though, for reasons I've discussed ad nauseam with Kazoom, I still don't regard the DMGT schemes as a valuation plus. TNI's liabilities at present value are roughly 1.9bn with 1.5bn assets. (So the déficit is 25%+ of assets.) Assets rose over the previous year, but, that performance is unlikely to repeat this year. I think the lowly share price in part reflects investors' nervousness about whether future cash flows - in a declining business - can cover pension payments, residual hacking payments, restructuring and necessary acquisitions etc There were stories in the press a while ago about the Northern and Shell deal being delayed or falling through and what this would imply for the viability of the pension schemes. The share price decline followed on. My own feeling is that such worries are realistic but possibly marginally over-done. Treat the 400m déficit as debt. How long, on current free cash flow rates, would it take TNI to pay the déficit off entirely? Maybe 8 years at a pinch. But then free cash flow will almost certainly decline over those eight years, if new turnover and free cash flow aren't acquired from Northern and Shell (or other takeovers.) So the worries are understandable. Obviously, there has been a popular line on this BB that with rate rises, everything 'is gonna be alright". Rate rises may not happen as quickly as we'd like and asset values look pretty rich to me across US and UK stocks and may well fall back, increasing the deficit. Is there another solution? One possiblliity is with regard to TNI's property empire. Why not borrow 200m against this - the current rough value of the freeholds - and drop this into the pension fund. (Obviously, it would be better to do this when asset values - stocks and bonds - are not as high as now.) They could then ask for a waiving of yearly payments for x number of years. The extra free cash flow would be used to pay down this much cheaper new debt. The Company pays some 37m a year into the pension fund - more at the moment with the share buy back accompanying payments - It's a very expensive form of debt. Over 10% currently per annum. TNI would get a better mortgage rate than that. I remain in two minds about this share. It's a genuinely difficult valuation case, in my view, and I continue to pass to much simpler shares which my tiny brain can cope with. Good luck to holders; your optimism may well be rewarded. All the best CJohn
kazoom: Looking back at the resolutions from the last AGM the "standard" resolution on share purchases authorised them to buyback just shy of 28m shares (10%). In the buyback they just completed they purchased 10m (not sure if some of those even predated the resolution) so they could still buy back more. So they could institute another buyback without asking for permission (from shareholders). With the share price where it is now, I can think of no better value use of the free cash flow - even accepting CJohn's valid point that the balancing pension payments they would have to agree with the trustees would be at a poor time to invest in pensions. The surely have to do everything they can to prevent the share-price hitting 50p. Both CJohn and Paul Scott have indicated that they "might be interested" in the shares at that price and it hardly seems fair that such fickle former holders should be allowed back into the party. ;-) More seriously though, much as I mostly think that Directors fretting over short term share price movements is a bad thing, unless there IS some underlying undisclosed reason for the share-price weakness of over the last six months - I do think there is a strong case here to use cash to maximise shareholder value, perhaps even over and above pursuing the acquisition. The next trading statement is in about 3 weeks time and if that does in fact confirm the variation between performance and valuation then there will be a strong case to challenge the Board's priorities.
kazoom: Twixy - it's a fair point , they do generate about 1/2p per share in free cash each week. Unfortunately the share price sheds more than that each day over the last few months. So as time goes by it is true the amount of debt needed to support the acquisition reduces, but any shares component looks increasingly unattractive to shareholders. To be honest I'd be inclined not to support a large shares component of the deal as things stand. In any case though if the share price does continue in this direction, Desmond could well decide to do the deal in reverse - float off his publishing assets and have 'newco' bid for TNI.
cityconindex: If this comes to pass will it affect the TNI share price? and by what degree? Cheers
kazoom: So Aviva sold 4.8m shares. The still have nearly 2.5 times that amount left. This is the first sale they have made since April, so I would say it is not clear whether they are still selling right now or taking a breather again. Conclusion of the trade is reported as 13-October and certainly there was an unusually high volume of shares traded that day 5.3m compared with a daily turnover that can be as low as 100k. Two big trades featured on the 13th : 2,600,000 @ 84.25 marked as a "sell" 2,527,517 @ 84.46 marked as a "buy" Additionally there was a big trade the following trading day (16-Oct) 2,643,312 @ 83.782 marked as a "buy" These trades don't precisely add up to the right number in any combination, but I would guess they make up somehow the sale of the Aviva shares and the purchase of slightly more than half (just short of 1% of the total cap) of them by someone else (probably not the buyback programme as that is much smaller in size). It is a little hard therefore to see what is going on, but from this it is not entirely obvious to me that the Aviva sale was the reason for the recent share price "weakness" (we've been trading below 90p for about 6 weeks and below a pound for over 2 months). So whilst I would tentatively agree that if we know (or surmise) that Aviva want to sell the lot, every time they sell is "good news" in that it clears some of the overhang; I'm certainly not going to be swinging from the rafters at this news. This is certainly not the sole or even main reason for the "low" share price (for those of us that believe it is in fact low). As a predominantly "value investor" I know that I shouldn't really be interested in market sentiment and "fads", but nevertheless whilst I still think there is substantial value here on a "hold to infinity basis", I'm sorely tempted to conclude that there is no imminent trigger for revaluation and the same value I see today, might still well be available in a couple of years time. Not trimming my position yet, but certainly thinking about it!
kazoom: You're probably right CJohn that the telegraph piece was just badly written and what you propose makes sense. So essentially we would assume inherit the scheme with no net surplus or deficit based on latest figures (lets pass on the discussion as to what other valuation methods are available!) If you wont mention the importunateness of include new shares in the deal valued in the 80s when the company bought them back at over £1 on average. Yes in hindsight that's not smart and to be fair your criticsm was before the event. But what else might have happened? The share price might easily have gone above the buyback price (as noted some analysts still think it worth c. £2, my valuation is certainly north of £1.) ; or the might have done a smaller deal (as they originally intended) which would not have needed new shares. Anyway we are where we are and that is certainly not disastrous. And gfrae I agree with the point that these shares would not go into "free float", there would probably be a lock in period for one thing, BUT they are still dilutive and invalidate the value that might have been tucked away in the buy back. But that wasn't actually why I expected the price to be down today, which was just a short term "prediction" (guess) based on the fact that the market seems gloomily disposed towards TNI and if you were looking for gloom you can take either (1) The dilution or (2) The fact that the deal could be blocked by the pension funds. On the second as I said previously I don't think this would be a hard deal to sell to either pension fund and as CJohn said that's probably just journo speculation especially given that they likely haven't put anything to the pension schemes yet. albert zog You are right to point out the difference between the pension deficit and the catchup payments (what you are calling the "funding deficit") . It's true that further movements in the deficit may not impact the catch up payments for up to 3 years , but as there is no sign that the catchup payments (even if the increase in the upcoming review) are crippling the company. And I think you are wrong with your conclusion. The deal as currently reported (remembering that everything is still speculative) would increase ongoing cashflow and increase the ability for TNI to be able to continue the fund the pension schemes ongoing. I would expect the numbers to be pretty clear on that and if the trustees looked to block it because they didn't like the extra debt they would actually be the ones taking a very short term view. I don't find that likely as everything I've seen so far suggests that the trustees have taken a very rational view in supporting the company - yes they've made sure they get guaranteed extra payments in the case of divis and buybacks but they allowing the business the flexibility to build.
gfrae: Kazoom, I don't think that is bad for the share price,if roughly correct. The only new shares being issued will be to Desmond,who will have his own idea of what the shares are worth and certainly wouldn't take them if he didn't think they had value. He wont be trashing the share price. It also means that anyone who has shorted the shares in anticipation of being issued cheap new ones will be disappointed. As you say the pension fund trustees will make sure that TNI does not overpay.
Trinity Mirror share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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