Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Trinity Mirror LSE:TNI London Ordinary Share GB0009039941 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 77.75p 77.00p 77.50p 77.75p 76.50p 77.75p 58,927 16:35:02
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Media 713.0 76.5 38.1 2.0 214.87

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Date Time Title Posts
16/11/201719:26TNI - The recovery thread!1,978
22/4/201612:49Trinity Mirror5,165
13/12/201217:37Trinity looks good!!17
21/6/201213:12MIRROR DOWN THE DRAIN2
21/6/201213:09What is the going rate for contempt of court?6

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Trinity Mirror Daily Update: Trinity Mirror is listed in the Media sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TNI. The last closing price for Trinity Mirror was 77.75p.
Trinity Mirror has a 4 week average price of 75.85p and a 12 week average price of 75.85p.
The 1 year high share price is 124p while the 1 year low share price is currently 75.85p.
There are currently 276,366,178 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 195,528 shares. The market capitalisation of Trinity Mirror is £214,874,703.40.
kazoom: And personally I won't be buying shedloads more if the price dips lower still. I filled up the last time we plumbed these depths hoping to make a quick range trade by riding the oscillation back above £1. So far that hasn't worked out quite so well this time, although there is still time for that to become a very good (sadly no longer excellent trade). It would take a share price starting with a 6 for me to get my wallet back out!
cityconindex: If this comes to pass will it affect the TNI share price? and by what degree? Cheers
kazoom: So Aviva sold 4.8m shares. The still have nearly 2.5 times that amount left. This is the first sale they have made since April, so I would say it is not clear whether they are still selling right now or taking a breather again. Conclusion of the trade is reported as 13-October and certainly there was an unusually high volume of shares traded that day 5.3m compared with a daily turnover that can be as low as 100k. Two big trades featured on the 13th : 2,600,000 @ 84.25 marked as a "sell" 2,527,517 @ 84.46 marked as a "buy" Additionally there was a big trade the following trading day (16-Oct) 2,643,312 @ 83.782 marked as a "buy" These trades don't precisely add up to the right number in any combination, but I would guess they make up somehow the sale of the Aviva shares and the purchase of slightly more than half (just short of 1% of the total cap) of them by someone else (probably not the buyback programme as that is much smaller in size). It is a little hard therefore to see what is going on, but from this it is not entirely obvious to me that the Aviva sale was the reason for the recent share price "weakness" (we've been trading below 90p for about 6 weeks and below a pound for over 2 months). So whilst I would tentatively agree that if we know (or surmise) that Aviva want to sell the lot, every time they sell is "good news" in that it clears some of the overhang; I'm certainly not going to be swinging from the rafters at this news. This is certainly not the sole or even main reason for the "low" share price (for those of us that believe it is in fact low). As a predominantly "value investor" I know that I shouldn't really be interested in market sentiment and "fads", but nevertheless whilst I still think there is substantial value here on a "hold to infinity basis", I'm sorely tempted to conclude that there is no imminent trigger for revaluation and the same value I see today, might still well be available in a couple of years time. Not trimming my position yet, but certainly thinking about it!
kazoom: Good post gfrae, but I think you are making my point for me, the selling is down to sentiment. There has been no material change in fundamentals between the share price being 75pish (aug-16) to 110p (sep-16) to 78ish (nov-16) to 120 (Mar-17 & may-17) to 85ish Jun-17 to 100 (aug-17) to 80ish now. TNI just continue to churn on meeting (and slightly beating) market expectations. If it weren't for the possibility of significant adverse reaction to the N&S deal when the details come out, I think there would be a fairly clear swing trade opportunity here.
kazoom: albert, imho it's all sentiment driven - look at the last 12 months in the chart above, the share price has gyrated between the mid 70s and 120s - yet during the last 3 years or so TNI have consistently met market expectations - consistent as clockwork. The only real material variables up to now have been the legacy phone hacking costs and pension deficit. Certainly there is potentially negative sentiment about the deal (I read one wonderful quote suggesting it was like tieing two stones together to help them float) Negative sentiment but it doesn't make it correct imho. You need the patience of a saint.
kazoom: You're probably right CJohn that the telegraph piece was just badly written and what you propose makes sense. So essentially we would assume inherit the scheme with no net surplus or deficit based on latest figures (lets pass on the discussion as to what other valuation methods are available!) If you wont mention the importunateness of include new shares in the deal valued in the 80s when the company bought them back at over £1 on average. Yes in hindsight that's not smart and to be fair your criticsm was before the event. But what else might have happened? The share price might easily have gone above the buyback price (as noted some analysts still think it worth c. £2, my valuation is certainly north of £1.) ; or the might have done a smaller deal (as they originally intended) which would not have needed new shares. Anyway we are where we are and that is certainly not disastrous. And gfrae I agree with the point that these shares would not go into "free float", there would probably be a lock in period for one thing, BUT they are still dilutive and invalidate the value that might have been tucked away in the buy back. But that wasn't actually why I expected the price to be down today, which was just a short term "prediction" (guess) based on the fact that the market seems gloomily disposed towards TNI and if you were looking for gloom you can take either (1) The dilution or (2) The fact that the deal could be blocked by the pension funds. On the second as I said previously I don't think this would be a hard deal to sell to either pension fund and as CJohn said that's probably just journo speculation especially given that they likely haven't put anything to the pension schemes yet. albert zog You are right to point out the difference between the pension deficit and the catchup payments (what you are calling the "funding deficit") . It's true that further movements in the deficit may not impact the catch up payments for up to 3 years , but as there is no sign that the catchup payments (even if the increase in the upcoming review) are crippling the company. And I think you are wrong with your conclusion. The deal as currently reported (remembering that everything is still speculative) would increase ongoing cashflow and increase the ability for TNI to be able to continue the fund the pension schemes ongoing. I would expect the numbers to be pretty clear on that and if the trustees looked to block it because they didn't like the extra debt they would actually be the ones taking a very short term view. I don't find that likely as everything I've seen so far suggests that the trustees have taken a very rational view in supporting the company - yes they've made sure they get guaranteed extra payments in the case of divis and buybacks but they allowing the business the flexibility to build.
gfrae: Kazoom, I don't think that is bad for the share price,if roughly correct. The only new shares being issued will be to Desmond,who will have his own idea of what the shares are worth and certainly wouldn't take them if he didn't think they had value. He wont be trashing the share price. It also means that anyone who has shorted the shares in anticipation of being issued cheap new ones will be disappointed. As you say the pension fund trustees will make sure that TNI does not overpay.
cjohn: Ok, thanks for expanding your remarks. Should they be waiting then and picking up assets that are more obviously distressed? Or wait, for example, till their own share price is firmer - ie above the average buy back price - then use their own paper in any takeover. The underlying problem is that TNI management don't have an organic solution. I realise there are still PI believers in the potential of digital here. But their belief is contradicted by the facts. The digital growth rate at the most recent results was in the mid-single digits. Buy backs in lieu of a transforming acquisition reduce the capital base and increase the load of déficit per share. And unless they aim to buy back and take the company private, it's not doing anything to ensure the future of the company. It's a distraction, in lieu of a strategy. I'd love the extra cash on the balance sheet, to be honest, and it pains me to see the accompanying over-payments disappear into the maw of the pension funds.
kazoom: Thanks CJohn, At face value I can see what you're getting at. They acquired the fist 20% of LW for £14.2m valuing the whole business at £70m. The last 80% cost them £155m valuing the whole business at £193m. But, it's worth remembering that over that time operating profits had risen from £21m to £39m, plus TNI had identified additional synergies of £10-12m pa only achievable through full ownership. So I don't think the disparity was that big and if anything it's that the first 20% looked overly cheap rather than the converse. Anyway I wouldn't disagree with you in the desire to see them drive a hard bargain on price, nor with the view that this deal makes a lot of business sense. Also no disagreement with anyone that it wouldn't make sense for them to issue shares to complete this deal, unless there was no other choice and given TNI's strong track record on cash generation and delivery of synergies it shouldn't really be that hard to raise debt against this deal I would hope. (Worth also noting that although they did issue some shares to acquire LW - that was when the share price was in the 170-180 range and the placing was at 158p!)
cityconindex: 6% of a share price that's been thrashed from 1.85 2 years ago is no favour to anyone. if they can recover the share price and pay a fatter dive to keep it at 6% that would be good. but a 20p divi special and continue the buyback is what imho is needed. Otherwise the only people making are the directors because if the share price recovers they will pick up large bonuses.
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