Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 20/10/2018 15:09

@ chucko1 - I'm quoting Buffett;

"Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1."
We could argue about our own personal rules, but the notion that once you've sold a stock you shouldn't discuss it (pace r a m) is beyond stupid.

Given my age, I guess Buffett's rule is up there amongst my top five. Professional traders have the edge in that they cut losses (at say 5%) but run winners. So their win rate can be 50% but they still make money.

[kallistos] 20/10/2018 14:05

I'm compelled to agree with you there, brummie. Those you mention are not very articulate and do not make very clear points. More leaden sixth-form debating society than full investment guru, I'd say.

[brummieloser] 20/10/2018 13:44

Guess who is winning this little fight? It certainly isn't chuckowinnie or jonwig is it? They don't have the eloquence. Nowhere near, fellows.

LOL LOL LOL

[chucko1] 20/10/2018 13:30

Jonwig, that is the point indeed. We learn from other investors and what they are doing and/or thinking, whether they act intelligently or foolishly. I see quite a mixture on this BB.

On the first rule of investing, I differ. “Don’t lose money” must be augmented with a time frame. I could not give a damn about short term performance, but it’s everything in the long term. That then translates into Buffett’s stated first and second rules!

My own first rule would be “Never, ever get emotional about any investment”. (which is not unrelated to your own first rule, and is consistent with ignoring the short term).
Akin to turning off the quote machine. This is why we, as PIs, ought to outperform the pros - most are forced to concern themselves with the short(ish) term by the way they, and their employers, are compensated. Woody himself is a strong hand when it comes to conviction and lack of emotion, but that makes it even the more curious when I see him making novice errors in the management of the funds - it’s not as though compensation should be an influence.

[daffyjones] 20/10/2018 10:25

For all those who defend Woodford on this thread:
Industrial Heat, the cold fusion company, now comprises 8.9% of WPCT. Are you comfortable with this?

[petethepict] 20/10/2018 08:51

Has anybody noted that slow-witted hypocrites like jonwig always want to crawl serpent-like to the higher moral ground?

Unsupported declarations like "The notion that you shouldn't talk about stocks you don't own is just silly." Why? Because jonwig says so? If all stocks are inter-related, which is jonwig's main ridiculous tenet, why does he persist in posting on the WPCT thread? There are thousands of other threads. Some like WIM are much more suitable to his ramblings. But no, he wishes to pontificate on this thread where the silent majority clearly detest his presence. And that, of course, explains why he is here, as has been pointed out.

" for most sensible folk: Don't Lose Money" : is this jonwig's own original epiphany? The implication is that HE never loses money . Can he prove that? Scarcely believe.

Then we come to the last resort of the inexpert share guru. "I also firmly believe" which is just as bad as saying "I've got a feeling in my gut". Who the hell cares what you firmly believe, jonwig? It doesn't bloody matter. Just argue the case, OK?

[solonic] 20/10/2018 08:19

We never learned anything from you, jonwig, except that you were a spiteful little troll trying to get the price of WPCT down for your shareprophet cohorts. Without any success whatsoever I'm glad to say. The frequency, the vehemence, the obsessive, repetitive nature of your posts about a share you didn't own showed that to everybody. Public service broadcasting, was it?

Huh!

As somebody said of one of winnie's other fanciful but inept creations. Such cant, such humbug. And such incompetence. LOL

Goodbye.

[porsche1945] 19/10/2018 22:11

Explain, why? Are you simple? He bought into Crest at 5.40, now 3 quid, Barratt TW being destroyed by a wave of short sellers, most have lost another 4/5 per cent just today, down, what 30/40 pc since he bought in at TOP of cycle, likes of Telford homes down from 5 quid to 3 in a few months....the UK heading for a hardcore brexit induced recession....so yes, insane exposure to capital destroying dividends about to be cut cyclical house builders, and he is supposed to be protecting investors money. Does that clear it up for you??

[chucko1] 19/10/2018 21:25

RAM, count on me - I believe what I say.

On the issue of selling all, but still posting - what about the contrary? I own about 20 or so different stocks, but there is little to discuss on many (from day to day) as they smoulder very slowly (or I have little to add).

But I post on a few boards where I have previously had an interest and may do so again at the right price. On this board, though, there has been nothing at all persuasive! (though occasionally informative). Hopeful, yes, but that doesn’t cut it for me.

If you don’t like my point of view, that’s fine. But don’t moan about it. There will be people who read this board without ever posting, and derive value from the jousting (some of it even intellectual). Whether or not I, or you for that matter, currently own any of this is substantially irrelevant.

[ltcm1] 19/10/2018 19:39

Chucko1 is one of the most polite posters here RAM.

What are you afraid of???

[ltcm1] 19/10/2018 19:34

Oh please - not the pregnant pipeline of profits! I thought that was a TW trademark phrase.

Autolus - I have no opinion as to it's prospects, the first paragraph you quoted was not meant to be taken seriously.

As for having too much in one stock, it is a difficult one. However say Autolus had a gravel pit that was worth as much as the company but not in the share price then it would be entirely stupid to auto sell. Clearly it depends on the nature of the stock and the risk of going to zero. A repeatable business like Mcdonalds might be ok where as a cyclical or death or glory diotech might not.

However, how did Woodford sell/pass it to the other funds??? You could argue it should have been done over a month or so after the IPO.

If NW is going to do this with Ben AI and Oxford Nanopore it will hold WPCT back. I thought you were supposed to run your winners and cut your losers when running a fund.

[researchanalystman] 19/10/2018 19:04

Itcm1- "Investors should note Woodford also sold Autolus to the other funds. On the evidence of the other transactions it is tempting to conclude Woody doesn't have a lot of faith in the NASDAQ pharma."Really...? How much of one stock do you want in wpct...you'd be complaining if they had 20% or 30% of market cap of wpct in one stock..(By the way if you did the proper research you'd see woodford actually bought more stock ... and now with the price at $31 compared to ipo at $17 that's really not having faith isn't it.. (shame about the profit ..)https://marketrealist.com/2018/09/t-cell-pipeline-is-a-key-growth-driver-for-autolus-therapeutics?source=nasdaq3 analysts strong buy and pipeline chart SO ,Your expert conclusion on autulos please - what a really duff company to have invested in particularly at such a low price that woodford got in at Or is it at others seemed to be Convinced that expert is the wrong word to use and actually ..... Xxx. should be used .. over to you ??

[minerve] 19/10/2018 16:57

"especially the insane exposure to house builders"

Explain.

[porsche1945] 19/10/2018 16:37

just looking through woodfords holdings, across all this cxxp, especially the insane exposure to house builders which are going through the floor, looks more like a suicide note that a portfolio haha

[chucko1] 19/10/2018 13:02

ltcm1, I see that on PFG. Although I very rarely comment on daily moves, it might be worth noting these:

AA/ -4.24%
BDEV -2.41%
CPI -1.78%
CRST +0.90%
IMB +0.60%
NRR Flat
PFG -2.49%
PURP -4.91%
TW -2.20%

Overall market is up 0.50%, so yet another day of significant underperformance. Of course, some of the portfolio is not subject to any update (maybe as well), and this somewhat masks the risk. The exposure to the building/property sector and many of the current high div stocks is a concern, even if, for the moment, its concentration does not seem to contribute (increase) to the standard measurement of volatility, which is relatively unchanged the past three years.

The latter point being the case then that’s one heck of a lot of bad equity calls. That said, at these prices, I do like a couple of them - but why have them all (I do like NRR, in particular)? (increasingly likely - real need for the income).