Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[porsche1945] 14/11/2018 12:55

Cant work out what is holding this up, inflated valuations on the unlisted is all I can think, all the listed stuff in free fall. Was looking through all Woodfords holdings, scary, its mostly like a graveyard of stuff you wouldnt touch, value destructive high dividend but declining business models and speccy bio pharma where if one in 500 come off will be going well, the cash burn with alot of these is as bad as anything back in dot.com days he drones on about ad nauseum avoiding, how long is that sustainable with a recession on the way, whole lot looks like it will be newsworthy pretty soon, Woodford funds collapse umder tidal wave of redemptions headline.

[jonwig] 14/11/2018 09:22

BlackRock are serial traders of all stocks they own: up a bit, down a bit. They've reduced their direct shareholding but increased their holdings of 'financial instruments' (CFDs?). Not a reliable indicator of sentiment, I think.

Notice they have 10.8m shares of WPCT out on loan. The only notifiable short position is Lombard Odier Asset Management (5m shs, -0.61%)

[ltcm1] 14/11/2018 09:02

Blackrock reducing here.

[minerve] 13/11/2018 23:47

Utilitywise looks like it might be going down the plug hole. A Woodford Income Fund holding. How much will have been lost on this?

Don't shoot the Minervenger.

[jonwig] 13/11/2018 09:37

@ ltcm - the prospectus says they can borrow up to 20% of nav. The lender is Northern Trust who are also administrator and depositary for the company. As far as I know, the detailed terms of their overdraft aren't disclosed, but I'd imagine their contract is with the Company, independently of the particular manager.

Investment Trust boards can sack their manager (unless they own the manager, which happens sometimes). Doing so would probably require a GM in which the manager would be - again probably - a related party who couldn't vote.

My company law isn't brilliant, I'm just going by experience of other events.

[henchard] 12/11/2018 23:35

WPCT has an overdraft facility of £150m (secured against the assets of the trust). Borrowings at the half-year end were £136m. Imagine having to raise that sum by liquidating holdings from WPCT's largely illiquid portfolio, if the lender were to pull the plug on the overdraft. The impact would be devastating. And such a scenario is far higher than a 0% probability, if history is any guide.

[henchard] 12/11/2018 22:46

Discount here should be 30%+ surely?

[chucko1] 12/11/2018 22:25

Volatility to the extent you state, ltcm1, is unhelpful for EIF and WPCT. These funds require both of the following: earnings/revenue progress and liquidity. Excessive volatility (I would describe daily moves of 26% and 8.5% for AUTL and PRTA respectively as excessive), if extended, is strongly and inversely proportional to liquidity.

It’s all well seeing a tripling of the share price of AUTL, but if you can’t do anything with it (well, apart from “selling”; some of it to EIF), it’s of little use. The market is, unsurprisingly, rewarding WPCT with a 19% discount. In the past 3.5 yrs, the NAV of WPCT is stated as being up 5.4% (will reprice at about 102 tomorrow, I would estimate, so net 2%). During the same time, the Nasdaq is up roughly 50%. The current market volatility is largely tech driven (GE wasn’t helpful, mind) and were that to continue (easier to do after such a run), I would expect the discount to widen further.

[riverman77] 12/11/2018 21:30

And Burford, BAT and IMB. I fear the end is nigh - main funds will shortly be suspended and liquidated to protect existing unit holders from flood of redemptions.

[ltcm1] 12/11/2018 20:31

Guys you wanna sit down before you read this.

Autolus curently down 28%, back to $34.

Prothena down 7% to 11.45, the level it crashed to last April.

On the wider front Woody's been absolutely smashed today, Capita, IP, Taylor Wimpey, PFG, Purplebricks - they're all down.

Ofcouse we love to build people up only to knock them down in this country. But Woodford was aware of that yet seemingly finds himself in the eye of the storm.

[minerve] 12/11/2018 15:43

Shame he can't be in the zoo.

[ltcm1] 12/11/2018 15:18

Andrew Tinkler in the dock today I see.

[chuckol] 12/11/2018 13:19

HOT NEWS

WPCT NAV smashes through 100p barrier. Reaches 105p with one step!



topvest jonwig: you were saying?

[ltinvestor] 11/11/2018 18:27

Jonwig.Check Nightstar..

[jonwig] 11/11/2018 14:26

@ Itinvestor - yes, I mentioned Syncona some while back. The fact that they work very closely with the investees is a huge distinguishing point from WPCT.

[topvest] 11/11/2018 13:11

So, now the Sunday Times is starting to report on what we flagged 12-18 months ago. Its like a slow car crash.

[ltinvestor] 11/11/2018 12:13

If you want exposure to cutting edge Bio then you should, IMO, be researching Syncona.Run by bio experts and not City traders Syncona have large stakes in several bio companies which they work with very closely.They tend to have stakes ranging from 30% upwards to 80% in Freeline.I believe they hold 34% in Autolus who are presenting their latest data at the Ash conference beginning Dec.Probably responsible for last weeks rise...
Syncona is one company , IMO, which you buy and lock away..ps I have just bought shares in Nightstar which is listed on Nasdaq and is another one of Synconas stable of “companiesR21;.Nightstar raised $80m a couple of weeks ago at $18 and I was able to buy at $10 last week(now $12.5)...My advice is to spend a little time researching Syncona and its highly regarded investeee companies.

[careful] 11/11/2018 12:08

Shares are stupidly priced, far too low.
So many people cashing in and putting money on deposit.
Confidence in the stock market is low.

Technically they used to be valued on a long term discounted cash flow basis.
With even the most pessimistic assumptions shares are way undervalued.
Compare with 10 year Gilts risk free returns.

[ltcm1] 11/11/2018 11:58

Don't forget a worldwide slowdown is meant to massively help all his income funds as the 'crowded trades' unwind and all investors realise what a fantastic bargain domestic UK stocks are.

Neil might be about to have his day!!!