Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[ltcm1] 01/11/2018 10:50

RAM I thought I read in Peter Lynch's book 'One Up On Wall Street' that Buffet had gone to 30% of his fund in a single holding in the past.

Perhaps I am wrong though.

It doesn't excuse the fact Woodford sold Autolus out of WPCT for half what it was worth. A shoddy business that needs explanation.

[researchanalystman] 01/11/2018 10:16

Itcm1re:"Please also note the 'W' that can be seen on the chart, a highly bearish indicator in my view"Au contraire - back to school?Double bottom reversal - potentially very positivehttps://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom_reversal==============

[researchanalystman] 01/11/2018 09:57

Itcm1 "The Autolus sale was sudden, strange and arbitary. Pretty clear it had a lot more to do with raising cash to subsidise the needy startups than anything based on Autolus itself.'Sudden - to who ( did you expect to be told in advance?)Strange - why .. It would have been more strange for selling at the IPO ..(i can see the comments woodford gives up on..)Arbitrary - why having 20% plus would be against the trust rules...(and i wonder who would be first to complain..)Woodford didn't sell any shares -they bought more. ( Potentially great further investment at $17 when it went to $30 )

[researchanalystman] 01/11/2018 09:35

Itcm1 - could you explain..30% on occasion of what?......."However I believe Buffet has gone to 30% on occasion in the past.'Please explain..30% on occasion of what?.......Having an investment of 29% in a particular company is not the issue. Having 29 % of your portfolio in one share could be if you are an individual but that's your choice. However we are talking about WPCT - Which is a TrustIt's not an individualIt's not an ordinary company It's a trust with a minimum of investment in 40 companiesWhen you say Buffet could you Explain what you are referring to..?Buffet the individualBuffet as head of Berkshire Hathaway which is a multinational company. It has 100% stakes in companies. It owns companies It buys companies. There is no Trust

[ltcm1] 01/11/2018 08:35

RAM - re post 4793 I agree with your final paragraph and both Chucko1 and I argued same. I also understand these Kelly critiron decisions are tricky and subjective. However I believe Buffet has gone to 30% on occasion in the past. Also with Autolus there was a strong argument for making any sale after the market had traded for a month or so, or you sell 1% a week or something.

The Autolus sale was sudden, strange and arbitary. Pretty clear it had a lot more to do with raising cash to subsidise the needy startups than anything based on Autolus itself.

The trouble is if 80% is in unquoteds it seems you can't sell them, so the choice is always further investment or chaos. They are a huge drag on the fund and the mix should be a lot lower in my humble opinion.

[ltcm1] 01/11/2018 08:20

Unwarranted, unrealistic, unconscionable.

Just three words of many I could pick to describe yesterday's bubble bounce.

I suggest readers follow Neil Woodford's maxim that markets are always wrong and to trade in the zone where the divergence between the market price and value is greatest.

Please also note the 'W' that can be seen on the chart, a highly bearish indicator in my view!!!

[lewis121] 31/10/2018 16:42

Thanks Careful.

[careful] 31/10/2018 16:37

I think we were up because we are about to enter the FTSE250 index.

[researchanalystman] 31/10/2018 16:33

Itcm1 Please correct your post .. i was wrong offload means getting rid of something you don't won't .. that is clearly not trueau contraire

[lewis121] 31/10/2018 16:28

Dear friends, why are we up 5% today?

[scrapheap] 31/10/2018 13:22

Positive to be going back in to the FTSE 250..... trackers will likely need to add now.

[researchanalystman] 31/10/2018 12:04

Itcm1Very sad your post because of the inference he sold sharesto the market .Woodford actually bought more of Autolus stock at the IPO upping his commitment.True - the word offload is technically correct because the stock went to another fund...However It had to as otherwise Autolus would have been roughly 25% of WPCT ... far in excess of what one stock should be either regulatory or prudentially as i'm sure you , as per your post below , and everybody else 100% agree .Be interested (as per your post below )in what you would say would be the maximum that anyone one share should be in any fund "Reference your post 1828'I don't agree that they have gambled in dud companies, there will always be a number that don't work out for whatever reason, quite often events beyond the company's control.Where I think he might have got it wrong is with the weightings. If say Prothema was a 7/1 shot he should not be putting 9% of the fund into it, that is not optimal under the Kelly criterion. However assessing the chances of businesses making it is not an easy process. But it should be clear to everyone that a business like Purplebricks is less risky in general than a biotech stock.

[ltcm1] 31/10/2018 08:53

Well he was only too happy to offload Autolus the day it came to market!!!

[researchanalystman] 30/10/2018 23:10

ltcm1 Your logic fails me ..Why has woodford done his conkers if he has a substantialgain on the money put into purplebricks ( less than the £1.00Float price dec 2015) .??At 190p that's a healthy return in lessthan 3 years.The fact that others exploded the price to massive levels in the short term is irrelevant if you have no desire to sell but are there for further gains on your investment going into the future...its not day trading

[ltcm1] 30/10/2018 21:12

Well I notice RAM hasn't denied it!!!

Anyone seen the most dreadful decline in Purplebull of late??? Apparently Tom Winnerfrith has made so much on his short from 500p he is thinking of starting a hedge fund!!!

Woodford's done his conkers on Purplebricks make no mistake, our leader's holding 30% of worthless paper he can't unload. Like even when he was a buying Purp was tanking yo so what chance on the sell side???

I don't mean to blow my own trumpet but if you refer to my Feb 2018 posts I did clearly illustrate the downside risks with Purp.

[daffyjones] 30/10/2018 12:01

Bit scurrilous to make that accusation against RAM for no reason, ltcm. No need for that.

[ltcm1] 30/10/2018 08:21

Anyone remember Woodford was rather keen on Flybe only about three months ago???!!!

[ltcm1] 30/10/2018 08:20

RAM thanks for the figures, I can't argue with what you say except to remind everyone WPCT is currently almost 20% down and about 40% down against anyone buying corporate bonds since 2015.

This is not an accusation in any way RAM but do you have an association with Woodford Investment Management atall???

[jonwig] 29/10/2018 20:15

Rather vague, but no doubt will be fleshed out in due course. Looks very much like WPCT but with a tax break.

The government has revealed a new kind of tax-efficient fund to invest in the UK’s highest risk businesses in exchange for tax relief, but stopped short of offering the generous tax perks mooted in a consultation earlier this year.

The new structure of Enterprise Investment Scheme fund will be introduced in 2020 and will invest in so-called knowledge-intensive companies, defined as those with high research and development spends, in a bid to funnel money towards more innovative, entrepreneurial companies.

[researchanalystman] 29/10/2018 17:33

The below was to itcm1 sorry topvest

[researchanalystman] 29/10/2018 17:26

Sorry to say topvest.. am surprised by inaccuracies andIncorrect info in your post..'Guys my final thought is this. What makes WPCT such a great long term investment when you can get over 3% risk free in US T bills??? And what if that risk free option increases it's return in the next few months???'You cannot repeat cannot get over 3 percent risk free in UST-BILLS1) t-bills have a max maturity of one year and their current rateis only 2.6%2) risk free...?? Advfn and woodford are sterling based as suchany increase in the $/£ exchange rate from todays rate 1.28 toabove $/£ 1.32 at maturity and you lose money. Above $/£ 1.40 and your down close to 10 percentPs even with no exchange rate loss it will take at 2.6% over 26 years to double your money.. yep 26 years Thats to 2044 !!Anyone who invested in wpct believes that the odds are much better that wpct will be able to potentially improve mutiples of that... dont forget we've a long way to go.. and would , i expect not put all their savings in wpct but would spread the risk..

[ltcm1] 27/10/2018 21:18

I know. Regardless of the politics, the inertia and uncertainty was always going to be a drag on growth. The other issue is a lowering of the exchange rate does not benefit the UK.

pediment the day I short WPCT the air breathing rocket will take off and bankrupt me.