Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 09/6/2018 15:02

re the AGM: the date, place and schedule are announced in the AR, dated 23 April. What, please, is the argument?

[topvest] 09/6/2018 14:15

Sorry....I do not agree. Intelligent AI hasn't done anything and has been effectively "internally revalued". Purplebricks is run by a bunch of aggressive individuals and is likely to end badly (like Utilitywise). AJ Bell is a great company, but has been sold and is a hangover from his Invesco days. I don't see any pattern in Woodford's recent ways other than investing in storyboard stocks, being taken in by aggressive smooth talkers or investing in companies with too much leverage (more in the equity income fund than WPCT). If there is one pattern...it's over confidence in his stock picking skills and ignoring a margin of safety.

[ltcm1] 09/6/2018 14:02

Looking at WPCT, is there possibly a theme emerging???

The non biotech disrupters and innovators have largely done very well, with the likes of Purplebricks, Intellignet AI, AJ Bell and Gigaclear producing stellar returns. It is really the various Biotech picks which have hampered the fund.

It is the Biotechs which have let the side down, lack of due diligence and overstaking have led to some large losses. Possibly there is a lack of technical know-how in this field and WIM may have a negative edge when it comes to this sector.

If Mr Woodford were to form a new fund of non Biotechs startups I would be keen to invest. It does seem to play much better to his strength of having a rich and detailed understanding of UK companies and the business environment.

The Biotech side seems little more than blind punts to me. Has he ever fleshed out how he picks his Biotech investments???

[ltcm1] 09/6/2018 13:48

It's a red flag in my book when companies act in this manner. Makes you think he has something to hide.

[topvest] 08/6/2018 20:47

Some good news on Autolus, but they are not selling are they and its not much of a valuation increase. No crystallisation of value as the share price is more likely to go down post-IPO. The US bull market won't last forever!

[harveydee] 08/6/2018 20:45

Correction: that should be Tuesday, not Wednesday, so even earlier ! Basically they have given shareholders one or two working days' notice !!

[jonwig] 08/6/2018 20:36

@ truthteller, post #3221 - in post #2117 I did indeed say the Autolus holding was prefs, but I explained that I was citing a Citywire article, which I'll give again:



In fact I was being truthful. ("According to the above, WPCT's holding is prefs.") I'm pleased at least that you don't accuse me of deliberate dishonesty.

[chucko1] 08/6/2018 20:20

Sorry, truthteller, are you referring to me when you say my arithmetic has been incorrect? It is ambiguous.

Please point to a single example, unless you mean someone else.

[harveydee] 08/6/2018 20:18

Unreal ! As I predicted, Neil has given about 10 seconds notice of the AGM, to be held this coming Wednesday June 12, and I note it has been shifted to a City of London venue instead of the usual Oxford one, where Woodford is now based, so both the timing of the announcement and the location look like brazen attempts to have as few of the shareholders attend as possible. Shockingly evasive behaviour !

"The AGM gives you, the Company’s shareholders, the opportunity to hear not only from the Company’s Chairman Susan Searle and its board, but also from Neil Woodford and his investment team. It also gives you the chance to pose any questions you have, first-hand.

Besides Neil’s presentation, motions will need to be passed and elections will need to be made. Only those shareholders entered on the Company’s register of members will be allowed to vote.

If you hold your shares indirectly (via a stockbroker, bank, or investment platform, for instance) contact your intermediary as they may be able to help you attend or vote.

When
2.30pm, Tuesday 12 June 2018

Doors will open at 2pm, so feel free to arrive earlier if you wish to register and take your seat in good time. If you have any special needs or require wheelchair access, the Company Secretary will be able to help, so don’t hesitate to call them ahead of the meeting on 020 7954 9599.

Where
Landing Forty Two, 122 Leadenhall St, London, EC3V 4AB"

[truthteller3] 08/6/2018 16:50

Specifically, based on the indicative range, the uplift would equate to +53 to +73% on the carrying value as at 30 April 2018, which reflects the terms of the September 2017 funding round.

I'm still not too sure I trust your arithmetic. You and Minerve get a lot of things wrong when you attempt to work things out.

And jonwig was far from telling the truth when he said that all the WPCT holding in Autolus was in the form of preference shares. Most by far were ordinary shares.

[chucko1] 08/6/2018 13:46

Roughly worth 4pps in NAV (both according to my own calculation, but then I read the RNS fully which said as much).

This is nothing other than a step in the right direction. Not so much in terms of value to shareholders (which it clearly is), but possibly validating Woody’s investment credentials in this space.

However, this is one statistic only. It represents just a fraction of the portfolio and we will need to see more of this to exclude the possibility that luck alone accounts for IPO realisations within the WPCT portfolio. I do hope that there are more successes in due course as I have not entirely sold out of my positions.

NAV yesterday was 84p, and this makes it 88p if all goes to plan with the IPO. A 12% fall in a fund like this after three years does not unduly worry me so long as there are not deeper problems as suggested by some - I.e. incorrect valuations. I wonder if this holds true, though. They were not overvaluing Autolus, but that is just one example.

If, on the concernometer, I was at 7.8 on a scale of 10.0, then I am now at 7.6. I would be happier if it were 4.0, but you would never make money if you bought sure fire things.

[solonic] 08/6/2018 13:11

There is an additional indirect benefit to WPCT, through the holding in Arix Bioscience, which also has a stake in Autolus.

jonwig, on behalf of shareprophets I suppose, was trying to say that the WPCT holding was in the form of preference shares. As far as I can see it's actually mostly in the form of ordinary shares. But then his serene highness is never wrong, so I may be.

[chuckol] 08/6/2018 12:49

Are you sure you feel OK Tom? I am soo sorry I dropped you in it with my complicated workings which didn't quite work. Happens to us all, eh?

[careful] 08/6/2018 12:11

Good to see some good news today.
The IPO looks good for WPCT.
Excellent share price reaction.
Could this be the turning point, this was always going to be a long term investment Hence the word patient.
Things take time.

[chucko1] 07/6/2018 13:04

Trollwatch, only you would have expected that.

[trollwatch] 07/6/2018 08:54

The stock exchange has failed to open !!!!!!!

The least I would have expected from winnie/Minerve this morning is a Henny-Penny post saying that the sky is falling on Purplebricks and the Woodford funds , ALONE.

Start the panic and run around the streets shouting gibberish, folks.

[chucko1] 05/6/2018 21:09

Oh, I see it’s me who's TW today.

Solonic, if you truly believe that, you’re a pretty poor judge. Funnily enough, a number of people call me TW, and always on stocks where I actually own some. I just own a lot less than I used to if I think the risk has risen, which, in the case of all NW funds I believe to be the case (less so the Income Focus fund which I still have a fair position in).

There you go.

[ltcm1] 05/6/2018 17:37

Thanks chucko1. It must be my error then but I find it hard to get my head round it when the fund itself has dropped 10-15% in the period.

It would be interesting to compare what the Purp weighting was at the high of 106 21st July last year. Purp was 500 then. But since then WPCT has declined faster than Purp.

Personally I don't see selling some Purp as a bad move, however if it was selling to buy more RM2 that doesn't personally thrill me. However it is all about opinions!

At least one thing has been cleared up by this - I can't be TW.

[solonic] 05/6/2018 17:30

I've just remembered, old winnie's navigational skills are a little bit doubtful. The route he used to reach his conclusion was meandering through the village streets when he could have taken the one-minute bypass. Perhaps dilution is not a familiar investment term to either of you?